Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for Elta, 8–24 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.6% 18.8–25.5%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 15.3% 13.9–16.8% 13.5–17.3% 13.2–17.6% 12.6–18.4%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.3–16.9% 12.9–17.3% 12.3–18.1%
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0.0% 13.2% 11.9–14.7% 11.6–15.1% 11.3–15.5% 10.7–16.2%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.6% 7.0–9.9% 6.8–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 7.3% 6.3–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.8–9.0% 5.4–9.6%
Darbo Partija (NI) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) 0.0% 2.7% 2.2–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.7–4.4%
Laisvės partija (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.1% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Laisvės partija (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 11% 100%  
3 89% 89% Median
4 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 15% 100%  
2 85% 85% Median
3 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 99.8% Median
2 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 26% 26%  
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Laisvės partija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Nemuno aušra (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) – Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) – Laisvės partija (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Nemuno aušra (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.0% 100%  
4 24% 99.0%  
5 75% 75% Median
6 0% 0% Majority

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) – Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) – Laisvės partija (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 99.8% Median
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 100% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 26% 26%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations