Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 19–29 April 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.7% | 19.1–22.4% | 18.7–22.9% | 18.3–23.3% | 17.6–24.1% |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0.0% | 18.1% | 16.6–19.7% | 16.2–20.1% | 15.8–20.5% | 15.1–21.3% |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 13.3% | 12.1–14.8% | 11.7–15.2% | 11.4–15.6% | 10.8–16.3% |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| Nemuno aušra (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.3% | 8.2–10.6% | 7.9–11.0% | 7.7–11.3% | 7.2–11.9% |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0.0% | 8.9% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.5% | 7.3–10.9% | 6.8–11.5% |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Nemuno aušra (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 58% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 42% | 42% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 18% | 100% | |
| 2 | 82% | 82% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.7% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Laisvės partija (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Spinter tyrimai
- Commissioner(s): Delfi
- Fieldwork period: 19–29 April 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1019
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.22%