Opinion Poll by Vilmorus for Lietuvos Rytas, 2–12 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 25.3% 23.6–27.1% 23.1–27.6% 22.7–28.1% 21.9–29.0%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 16.4% 15.0–18.0% 14.6–18.4% 14.2–18.8% 13.6–19.6%
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0.0% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.1% 10.4–15.9%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 10.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.2% 8.7–12.6% 8.2–13.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 3 3 3 3 2–3
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.6% 100%  
3 99.3% 99.4% Median
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 86% 100% Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 99.8% 99.8% Median
3 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 30% 100%  
2 70% 70% Median
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 93% 100% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 99.8% 99.8% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations