Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 19–29 June 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.8–19.7% 15.4–20.1% 14.8–20.9%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.1–19.0% 14.8–19.4% 14.1–20.2%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 13.7% 12.4–15.2% 12.1–15.6% 11.8–16.0% 11.2–16.7%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 10.8% 9.6–12.1% 9.3–12.5% 9.0–12.9% 8.5–13.5%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 7.9% 6.9–9.0% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0.0% 7.3% 6.3–8.4% 6.1–8.7% 5.8–9.0% 5.4–9.6%
Laisvės partija (RE) 0.0% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0.0% 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Laisvės partija (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 99.7% 99.7% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.2% 100%  
2 98.8% 98.8% Median
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 64% 100% Median
2 36% 36%  
3 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.5% 100% Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 99.8% Median
2 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100% Last Result
1 99.0% 99.0% Median
2 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100% Last Result
1 63% 63% Median
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 99.7% 99.7% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 83% 99.8% Median
2 17% 17%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations