Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 18–25 July 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.7% | 18.2–21.4% | 17.8–21.9% | 17.4–22.3% | 16.7–23.1% |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.5% | 14.1–17.0% | 13.7–17.5% | 13.4–17.8% | 12.7–18.6% |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 14.1% | 12.7–15.6% | 12.4–16.0% | 12.1–16.4% | 11.4–17.1% |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0.0% | 10.5% | 9.4–11.8% | 9.0–12.2% | 8.8–12.6% | 8.2–13.2% |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0.0% | 9.3% | 8.2–10.6% | 7.9–11.0% | 7.7–11.3% | 7.2–11.9% |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0.0% | 6.1% | 5.3–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.4% |
| Nemuno aušra (S&D) | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.6–7.2% |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.8–5.1% | 2.5–5.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Nemuno aušra (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 95% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 5% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 93% | 93% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 32% | 100% | |
| 2 | 68% | 68% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.3% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Laisvės partija (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 90% | 90% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 54% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 46% | 46% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 95% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 5% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Spinter tyrimai
- Commissioner(s): Delfi
- Fieldwork period: 18–25 July 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1009
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.23%