Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 24 September–9 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 20.0% 18.5–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 18.6% 17.1–20.3% 16.7–20.7% 16.3–21.2% 15.6–22.0%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.4% 13.1–16.0% 12.7–16.4% 12.4–16.8% 11.8–17.5%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 12.7% 11.5–14.2% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–15.0% 10.2–15.7%
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0.0% 12.3% 11.0–13.7% 10.7–14.1% 10.4–14.4% 9.8–15.1%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.7% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Darbo Partija (NI) 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Laisvės partija (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Laisvės partija (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 56% 100% Median
3 44% 44%  
4 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 87% 100% Median
3 13% 13%  
4 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 39% 100%  
2 61% 61% Median
3 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 49% 100%  
2 51% 51% Median
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 87% 100% Median
3 13% 13%  
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 38% 100%  
2 61% 62% Median
3 1.1% 1.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations