Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 16–28 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 16.2% 14.8–17.8% 14.4–18.2% 14.1–18.6% 13.4–19.4%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 15.2% 13.8–16.7% 13.5–17.2% 13.1–17.6% 12.5–18.3%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.4% 13.1–15.9% 12.7–16.4% 12.4–16.7% 11.8–17.5%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 14.4% 13.1–15.9% 12.7–16.4% 12.4–16.7% 11.8–17.5%
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0.0% 11.6% 10.4–13.0% 10.0–13.4% 9.8–13.7% 9.2–14.4%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 9.6% 8.5–10.9% 8.2–11.3% 8.0–11.6% 7.5–12.2%
Darbo Partija (NI) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.2%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Laisvės partija (RE) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.1–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Laisvės partija (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 99.5% 99.5% Median
3 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 90% 90% Median
3 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 9% 100%  
2 91% 91% Median
3 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 95% 100% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 100% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 2 0% 2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 0% 2 2 1–2 1–2
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 7% 100%  
2 85% 93% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations