Opinion Poll by Vilmorus for Lietuvos Rytas, 6–16 November 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.9% | 21.3–24.7% | 20.8–25.2% | 20.4–25.6% | 19.6–26.5% |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.1% | 18.5–21.8% | 18.1–22.3% | 17.7–22.7% | 17.0–23.5% |
| Nemuno aušra (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.7% | 15.3–18.3% | 14.9–18.7% | 14.5–19.1% | 13.9–19.9% |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 15.6% | 14.2–17.2% | 13.8–17.6% | 13.5–18.0% | 12.8–18.8% |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0.0% | 12.4% | 11.1–13.8% | 10.8–14.2% | 10.5–14.6% | 9.9–15.3% |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0.0% | 8.9% | 7.8–10.2% | 7.5–10.5% | 7.3–10.8% | 6.8–11.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Nemuno aušra (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 21% | 100% | |
| 3 | 79% | 79% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 94% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 6% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.7% | 99.7% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 83% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 17% | 17% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 21% | 100% | |
| 3 | 79% | 79% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Vilmorus
- Commissioner(s): Lietuvos Rytas
- Fieldwork period: 6–16 November 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.08%