Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 11–29 November 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 16.9% 15.5–18.5% 15.0–18.9% 14.7–19.3% 14.0–20.1%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 16.7% 15.3–18.3% 14.9–18.7% 14.5–19.1% 13.9–19.9%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 15.8% 14.4–17.3% 14.0–17.8% 13.7–18.2% 13.0–18.9%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 13.6% 12.3–15.1% 12.0–15.5% 11.7–15.9% 11.1–16.6%
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0.0% 12.1% 10.9–13.5% 10.5–13.9% 10.2–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 7.7% 6.7–8.8% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.7–10.0%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0.0% 4.4% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.3%
Darbo Partija (NI) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Laisvės partija (RE) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.5–4.7% 2.2–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 2 2 2 2 2–3
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2 2–3
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Laisvės partija (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 99.2% 99.9% Median
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 99.2% 99.8% Median
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.9% 100%  
2 98.9% 99.1% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 26% 100%  
2 74% 74% Median
3 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 73% 100% Median
2 27% 27%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 100% Median

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 18% 18%  
2 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 2 0% 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2–3
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 18% 100%  
2 72% 82% Median
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 99.2% 99.8% Median
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations