Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 11–29 December 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 17.8% 16.4–19.4% 15.9–19.9% 15.6–20.3% 14.9–21.1%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 17.7% 16.3–19.4% 15.9–19.8% 15.5–20.2% 14.8–21.0%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 14.9% 13.5–16.4% 13.1–16.8% 12.8–17.2% 12.2–18.0%
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0.0% 14.2% 12.9–15.7% 12.5–16.1% 12.2–16.5% 11.6–17.2%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.7% 10.9–16.5%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.8–10.2%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Darbo Partija (NI) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Laisvės partija (RE) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 2 2 2 2 2–3
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2 2 2–3
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Laisvės partija (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 98% 100% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 98.6% 100% Median
3 1.3% 1.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 9% 100%  
2 91% 91% Median
3 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 18% 100%  
2 82% 82% Median
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 13% 13%  
2 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Laisvės partija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 2 0% 2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 0% 2 2 1–2 1–2
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 9% 100%  
2 86% 91% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations