Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 8–24 January 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.9–19.7% 15.5–20.1% 14.8–20.9%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 16.4% 15.0–17.9% 14.6–18.3% 14.3–18.7% 13.6–19.5%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 14.6% 13.3–16.0% 12.9–16.5% 12.6–16.8% 12.0–17.6%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.4–15.9% 12.1–16.2% 11.5–17.0%
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0.0% 13.5% 12.3–15.0% 11.9–15.4% 11.6–15.7% 11.0–16.4%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.0% 7.8–11.3% 7.3–11.9%
Darbo Partija (NI) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.5% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.0% 2.4–5.4%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.8%
Laisvės partija (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.3–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 2.0–4.0% 1.7–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 2 2 2 2 2–3
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Laisvės partija (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 99.1% 100% Median
3 0.9% 0.9%  
4 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 99.6% 99.7% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 13% 100%  
2 87% 87% Median
3 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 14% 100%  
2 86% 86% Median
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 100% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 2 0% 2 2 1–2 1–2
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 99.6% 99.7% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations