Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 19 February–2 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 17.8% | 16.0–19.7% | 15.5–20.2% | 15.1–20.7% | 14.3–21.7% |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0.0% | 15.8% | 14.2–17.7% | 13.7–18.2% | 13.3–18.7% | 12.6–19.6% |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0.0% | 13.2% | 11.7–14.9% | 11.3–15.4% | 10.9–15.9% | 10.2–16.7% |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.6–14.8% | 11.1–15.3% | 10.8–15.7% | 10.1–16.6% |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.2% | 10.8–13.9% | 10.3–14.4% | 10.0–14.8% | 9.4–15.7% |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.1–9.8% | 6.8–10.2% | 6.5–10.6% | 6.0–11.3% |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.3–6.5% | 4.1–6.8% | 3.9–7.2% | 3.5–7.8% |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.8–5.7% | 2.5–6.3% |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.5–4.2% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.1–4.8% | 1.8–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 48% | 100% | |
| 2 | 52% | 52% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 46% | 100% | |
| 2 | 54% | 54% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 75% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 25% | 25% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
Darbo Partija (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 40% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 60% | 60% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 10% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Laisvės partija (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 40% | 100% | |
| 2 | 58% | 60% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 46% | 100% | |
| 2 | 54% | 54% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Darbo Partija (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 40% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 60% | 60% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Baltijos tyrimai
- Commissioner(s): ELTA
- Fieldwork period: 19 February–2 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 721
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.55%