Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 28 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 24.5% 22.5–26.6% 21.9–27.3% 21.4–27.8% 20.5–28.9%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 16.9% 15.2–18.9% 14.7–19.4% 14.3–19.9% 13.5–20.9%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 12.6% 11.1–14.3% 10.7–14.8% 10.3–15.3% 9.6–16.2%
Nemuno aušra (PfE) 0.0% 8.4% 7.2–9.9% 6.8–10.3% 6.6–10.7% 6.0–11.5%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 8.1% 6.9–9.6% 6.6–10.0% 6.3–10.4% 5.8–11.1%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.1% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.7% 3.7–7.0% 3.3–7.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Nemuno aušra (PfE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 24% 100%  
3 76% 76% Median
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 97% 97% Median
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 90% 100% Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 99.8% Median
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 99.6% 99.6% Median
2 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 61% 100% Last Result, Median
1 39% 39%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Nemuno aušra (PfE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 24% 100%  
3 76% 76% Median
4 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 99.8% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations