Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 18–28 July 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0.0% | 23.0% | 21.1–25.1% | 20.5–25.7% | 20.1–26.2% | 19.2–27.2% |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.3% | 12.7–16.1% | 12.3–16.6% | 11.9–17.0% | 11.2–17.9% |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.6–13.7% | 10.2–14.2% | 9.9–14.6% | 9.2–15.5% |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0.0% | 11.5% | 10.1–13.2% | 9.7–13.6% | 9.4–14.0% | 8.7–14.9% |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0.0% | 7.9% | 6.7–9.3% | 6.4–9.7% | 6.1–10.1% | 5.6–10.8% |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.5–7.8% | 5.2–8.2% | 4.9–8.6% | 4.5–9.2% |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0.0% | 6.1% | 5.1–7.4% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.6–8.1% | 4.1–8.7% |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.3–6.5% | 4.1–6.8% | 3.9–7.1% | 3.5–7.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 47% | 100% | |
| 3 | 53% | 53% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 41% | 100% | |
| 2 | 59% | 59% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 94% | 94% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 87% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Laisvės partija (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 40% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 60% | 60% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 47% | 100% | |
| 3 | 53% | 53% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Spinter tyrimai
- Commissioner(s): Delfi
- Fieldwork period: 18–28 July 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 722
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.33%