Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 21–31 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 19.3% 17.5–21.2% 17.0–21.8% 16.6–22.3% 15.7–23.3%
Nemuno aušra (PfE) 0.0% 15.3% 13.7–17.1% 13.2–17.6% 12.8–18.1% 12.1–19.0%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 15.1% 13.5–17.0% 13.1–17.5% 12.7–17.9% 12.0–18.8%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 11.6% 10.2–13.2% 9.8–13.7% 9.4–14.1% 8.8–14.9%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 10.3% 9.0–11.9% 8.6–12.3% 8.3–12.7% 7.7–13.5%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.2% 6.1–8.5% 5.7–8.9% 5.5–9.3% 5.0–10.0%
Darbo Partija (NI) 0.0% 4.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.4–6.5% 3.0–7.1%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.6–5.3% 2.2–5.9%
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) 0.0% 3.6% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.5–5.2% 2.1–5.7%
Laisvės partija (RE) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.3–5.0% 2.0–5.6%
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) 0.0% 2.2% 1.6–3.1% 1.5–3.3% 1.4–3.6% 1.1–4.0%
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0.0% 2.1% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.4% 1.0–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Nemuno aušra (PfE) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 1–3
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 2 2 2 2 1–3
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Laisvės partija (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 43% 100%  
3 57% 57% Median
4 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (PfE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.9% 100%  
2 92% 99.1% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.7% 100%  
2 98% 99.3% Median
3 1.4% 1.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 37% 100%  
2 63% 63% Median
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 79% 100% Median
2 21% 21%  
3 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 99.3% 99.5% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 37% 37%  
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nemuno aušra (PfE) 0 2 0% 2 2–3 2–3 1–3
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–3
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nemuno aušra (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.9% 100%  
2 92% 99.1% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 43% 100%  
3 57% 57% Median
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.7% 100%  
2 98% 99.3% Median
3 1.4% 1.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 34% 100%  
2 65% 66% Median
3 1.1% 1.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 37% 37%  
2 0% 0%  

Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations