Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 20–31 August 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0.0% | 17.6% | 15.9–19.6% | 15.5–20.1% | 15.0–20.6% | 14.3–21.5% |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 17.2% | 15.5–19.1% | 15.1–19.7% | 14.7–20.1% | 13.9–21.1% |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0.0% | 14.5% | 12.9–16.3% | 12.5–16.8% | 12.1–17.3% | 11.4–18.1% |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0.0% | 12.4% | 11.0–14.1% | 10.6–14.6% | 10.2–15.0% | 9.6–15.9% |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 7.8–10.5% | 7.5–11.0% | 7.2–11.3% | 6.6–12.1% |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 7.4% | 6.3–8.8% | 6.0–9.2% | 5.7–9.5% | 5.2–10.2% |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (ECR) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.2–8.6% | 5.8–9.0% | 5.6–9.4% | 5.1–10.1% |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.3–5.2% | 3.1–5.5% | 2.9–5.8% | 2.5–6.4% |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 2.0–4.5% | 1.7–5.0% |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 2.0–4.5% | 1.7–5.0% |
| Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.5–3.3% | 1.4–3.5% | 1.1–4.0% |
| Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.2% | 0.9–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 93% | 93% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 11% | 100% | |
| 2 | 89% | 89% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.2% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.8% | 99.8% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.5% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Darbo Partija (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Laisvės partija (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 92% | 92% | Median |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 11% | 100% | |
| 2 | 89% | 89% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Darbo Partija (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Baltijos tyrimai
- Commissioner(s): ELTA
- Fieldwork period: 20–31 August 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 731
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.67%