Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 16–26 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 24.5% 22.5–26.7% 21.9–27.4% 21.4–27.9% 20.5–29.0%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 13.5% 11.9–15.3% 11.4–15.8% 11.1–16.3% 10.4–17.2%
Nemuno aušra (PfE) 0.0% 12.7% 11.2–14.5% 10.8–15.0% 10.4–15.5% 9.7–16.4%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 11.7% 10.2–13.4% 9.8–13.9% 9.4–14.3% 8.8–15.2%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 10.5% 9.1–12.1% 8.7–12.6% 8.4–13.0% 7.7–13.9%
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (ECR) 0.0% 6.1% 5.1–7.5% 4.8–7.9% 4.5–8.2% 4.1–8.9%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.1% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.7% 3.7–7.0% 3.2–7.7%
Laisvės partija (RE) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.3–5.1% 2.0–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Nemuno aušra (PfE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (ECR) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Laisvės partija (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 7% 100%  
3 93% 93% Median
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 38% 100%  
2 62% 62% Median
3 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 60% 100% Median
2 40% 40%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 85% 100% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 90% 90% Median
2 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 55% 55% Median
2 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 3 0% 3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Nemuno aušra (PfE) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 7% 100%  
3 93% 93% Median
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 60% 100% Median
2 40% 40%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations