Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 23 September–5 October 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 20.7% 18.9–22.7% 18.4–23.3% 18.0–23.8% 17.2–24.7%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 16.3% 14.7–18.1% 14.2–18.6% 13.8–19.1% 13.1–20.0%
Nemuno aušra (PfE) 0.0% 14.2% 12.7–15.9% 12.2–16.4% 11.9–16.8% 11.2–17.7%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 13.8% 12.3–15.5% 11.9–16.0% 11.5–16.4% 10.8–17.3%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 7.6% 6.5–9.0% 6.2–9.4% 5.9–9.7% 5.4–10.4%
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (ECR) 0.0% 6.6% 5.5–7.9% 5.3–8.2% 5.0–8.6% 4.6–9.2%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.2% 5.2–7.4% 4.9–7.8% 4.7–8.1% 4.2–8.8%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0.0% 4.3% 3.5–5.4% 3.3–5.7% 3.1–6.0% 2.7–6.6%
Laisvės partija (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.8% 2.4–5.1% 2.1–5.6%
Darbo Partija (NI) 0.0% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6% 2.2–4.8% 1.9–5.3%
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.7%
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.4% 0.8–2.6% 0.6–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Nemuno aušra (PfE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (ECR) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Laisvės partija (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 30% 100%  
3 70% 70% Median
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 95% 95% Median
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 90% 90% Median
3 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 35% 100%  
2 65% 65% Median
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 99.7% 99.7% Median
2 0% 0%  

Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 85% 85% Median
2 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 83% 83% Median
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0 2 0% 2 2 1–2 1–2
Nemuno aušra (PfE) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 44% 100%  
3 51% 56% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 30% 100%  
3 70% 70% Median
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 95% 95% Median
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 90% 90% Median
3 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations