Opinion Poll by Social Changes, 5–10 July 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 45.3% | 43.3–47.3% | 42.8–47.9% | 42.3–48.4% | 41.3–49.3% |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 31.7% | 27.8% | 26.0–29.6% | 25.5–30.2% | 25.1–30.6% | 24.3–31.5% |
| Wiosna | 0.0% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.3% | 5.1–7.7% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.5–8.5% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.1% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 2.0–4.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 265 | 251–278 | 248–282 | 245–285 | 239–292 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 166 | 151 | 143–162 | 139–167 | 137–170 | 130–177 |
| Wiosna | 0 | 19 | 10–29 | 8–30 | 0–31 | 0–34 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 15 | 8–28 | 0–29 | 0–30 | 0–32 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 12 | 0–19 | 0–21 | 0–23 | 0–25 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 231 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 232 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 240 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 241 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 242 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 243 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 244 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 245 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 246 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 247 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 248 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 249 | 2% | 94% | |
| 250 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 251 | 2% | 91% | |
| 252 | 2% | 89% | |
| 253 | 2% | 87% | |
| 254 | 2% | 85% | |
| 255 | 2% | 83% | |
| 256 | 2% | 81% | |
| 257 | 2% | 79% | |
| 258 | 2% | 76% | |
| 259 | 3% | 74% | |
| 260 | 4% | 71% | |
| 261 | 4% | 68% | |
| 262 | 4% | 64% | |
| 263 | 3% | 60% | |
| 264 | 4% | 56% | |
| 265 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 266 | 4% | 48% | |
| 267 | 4% | 43% | |
| 268 | 4% | 39% | |
| 269 | 3% | 36% | |
| 270 | 4% | 32% | |
| 271 | 4% | 28% | |
| 272 | 3% | 25% | |
| 273 | 2% | 22% | |
| 274 | 3% | 20% | |
| 275 | 2% | 16% | |
| 276 | 2% | 15% | |
| 277 | 2% | 13% | |
| 278 | 2% | 11% | |
| 279 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 280 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 281 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 282 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 283 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 284 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 285 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 286 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 287 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 288 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 289 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 290 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 291 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 295 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 297 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 299 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 300 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 138 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 139 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 140 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 141 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 142 | 2% | 92% | |
| 143 | 4% | 90% | |
| 144 | 2% | 87% | |
| 145 | 4% | 85% | |
| 146 | 4% | 81% | |
| 147 | 4% | 77% | |
| 148 | 5% | 73% | |
| 149 | 5% | 68% | |
| 150 | 7% | 63% | |
| 151 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 152 | 7% | 50% | |
| 153 | 7% | 43% | |
| 154 | 4% | 36% | |
| 155 | 4% | 31% | |
| 156 | 4% | 27% | |
| 157 | 4% | 24% | |
| 158 | 3% | 20% | |
| 159 | 2% | 17% | |
| 160 | 2% | 15% | |
| 161 | 1.3% | 13% | |
| 162 | 2% | 11% | |
| 163 | 1.1% | 10% | |
| 164 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 165 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 166 | 1.0% | 6% | Last Result |
| 167 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 169 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 170 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% |
Wiosna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wiosna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0% | 97% | |
| 3 | 0% | 97% | |
| 4 | 0% | 97% | |
| 5 | 0% | 97% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 7 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 8 | 2% | 95% | |
| 9 | 2% | 93% | |
| 10 | 3% | 91% | |
| 11 | 6% | 88% | |
| 12 | 6% | 82% | |
| 13 | 3% | 76% | |
| 14 | 5% | 73% | |
| 15 | 4% | 68% | |
| 16 | 3% | 64% | |
| 17 | 5% | 61% | |
| 18 | 5% | 56% | |
| 19 | 3% | 51% | Median |
| 20 | 4% | 48% | |
| 21 | 2% | 44% | |
| 22 | 3% | 42% | |
| 23 | 3% | 39% | |
| 24 | 3% | 35% | |
| 25 | 4% | 32% | |
| 26 | 3% | 28% | |
| 27 | 5% | 25% | |
| 28 | 9% | 20% | |
| 29 | 5% | 11% | |
| 30 | 2% | 6% | |
| 31 | 2% | 4% | |
| 32 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 93% | |
| 2 | 0% | 93% | |
| 3 | 0% | 93% | |
| 4 | 0% | 93% | |
| 5 | 0% | 93% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 7 | 2% | 92% | |
| 8 | 5% | 90% | |
| 9 | 3% | 86% | |
| 10 | 5% | 82% | |
| 11 | 9% | 77% | |
| 12 | 7% | 68% | |
| 13 | 3% | 61% | |
| 14 | 7% | 59% | |
| 15 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 16 | 4% | 47% | |
| 17 | 5% | 43% | |
| 18 | 4% | 38% | |
| 19 | 2% | 33% | |
| 20 | 3% | 32% | |
| 21 | 2% | 29% | |
| 22 | 2% | 27% | |
| 23 | 2% | 25% | |
| 24 | 3% | 23% | |
| 25 | 3% | 20% | |
| 26 | 3% | 16% | |
| 27 | 2% | 14% | |
| 28 | 5% | 11% | |
| 29 | 3% | 6% | |
| 30 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 52% | |
| 2 | 0% | 52% | |
| 3 | 0% | 52% | |
| 4 | 0% | 52% | |
| 5 | 0% | 52% | |
| 6 | 0% | 52% | |
| 7 | 0% | 52% | |
| 8 | 0% | 52% | |
| 9 | 0% | 52% | |
| 10 | 0% | 52% | |
| 11 | 2% | 52% | |
| 12 | 8% | 50% | Median |
| 13 | 7% | 43% | |
| 14 | 5% | 35% | |
| 15 | 6% | 30% | |
| 16 | 3% | 24% | Last Result |
| 17 | 4% | 21% | |
| 18 | 3% | 17% | |
| 19 | 4% | 14% | |
| 20 | 3% | 10% | |
| 21 | 2% | 6% | |
| 22 | 2% | 4% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 265 | 100% | 251–278 | 248–282 | 245–285 | 239–292 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 182 | 176 | 0% | 161–190 | 158–195 | 155–199 | 148–206 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 166 | 168 | 0% | 155–181 | 152–184 | 149–187 | 143–194 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 182 | 160 | 0% | 147–173 | 144–177 | 142–182 | 137–189 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 166 | 151 | 0% | 143–162 | 139–167 | 137–170 | 130–177 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 231 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 232 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 240 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 241 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 242 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 243 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 244 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 245 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 246 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 247 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 248 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 249 | 2% | 94% | |
| 250 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 251 | 2% | 91% | |
| 252 | 2% | 89% | |
| 253 | 2% | 87% | |
| 254 | 2% | 85% | |
| 255 | 2% | 83% | |
| 256 | 2% | 81% | |
| 257 | 2% | 79% | |
| 258 | 2% | 76% | |
| 259 | 3% | 74% | |
| 260 | 4% | 71% | |
| 261 | 4% | 68% | |
| 262 | 4% | 64% | |
| 263 | 3% | 60% | |
| 264 | 4% | 56% | |
| 265 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 266 | 4% | 48% | |
| 267 | 4% | 43% | |
| 268 | 4% | 39% | |
| 269 | 3% | 36% | |
| 270 | 4% | 32% | |
| 271 | 4% | 28% | |
| 272 | 3% | 25% | |
| 273 | 2% | 22% | |
| 274 | 3% | 20% | |
| 275 | 2% | 16% | |
| 276 | 2% | 15% | |
| 277 | 2% | 13% | |
| 278 | 2% | 11% | |
| 279 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 280 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 281 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 282 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 283 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 284 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 285 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 286 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 287 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 288 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 289 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 290 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 291 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 295 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 297 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 299 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 300 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 154 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 155 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 156 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 157 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 158 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 159 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 160 | 2% | 93% | |
| 161 | 1.5% | 91% | |
| 162 | 1.2% | 90% | |
| 163 | 2% | 89% | |
| 164 | 2% | 87% | |
| 165 | 2% | 84% | |
| 166 | 2% | 82% | |
| 167 | 3% | 80% | |
| 168 | 2% | 77% | |
| 169 | 2% | 74% | |
| 170 | 3% | 72% | |
| 171 | 4% | 69% | |
| 172 | 3% | 65% | |
| 173 | 4% | 62% | |
| 174 | 3% | 58% | |
| 175 | 2% | 55% | |
| 176 | 3% | 53% | |
| 177 | 4% | 50% | |
| 178 | 4% | 45% | Median |
| 179 | 3% | 42% | |
| 180 | 4% | 38% | |
| 181 | 4% | 35% | |
| 182 | 4% | 31% | Last Result |
| 183 | 3% | 28% | |
| 184 | 2% | 25% | |
| 185 | 3% | 23% | |
| 186 | 3% | 20% | |
| 187 | 2% | 17% | |
| 188 | 2% | 15% | |
| 189 | 2% | 13% | |
| 190 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 191 | 1.5% | 10% | |
| 192 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 193 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 194 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 195 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 196 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 197 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 198 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 199 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 200 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 202 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 147 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 148 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 149 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 150 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 151 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 152 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 153 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 154 | 2% | 93% | |
| 155 | 2% | 91% | |
| 156 | 2% | 90% | |
| 157 | 2% | 88% | |
| 158 | 2% | 86% | |
| 159 | 3% | 83% | |
| 160 | 3% | 80% | |
| 161 | 4% | 77% | |
| 162 | 2% | 72% | |
| 163 | 3% | 70% | |
| 164 | 4% | 67% | |
| 165 | 4% | 63% | |
| 166 | 4% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 167 | 4% | 54% | |
| 168 | 5% | 50% | |
| 169 | 3% | 45% | |
| 170 | 4% | 42% | |
| 171 | 4% | 38% | |
| 172 | 4% | 34% | |
| 173 | 3% | 30% | |
| 174 | 3% | 27% | |
| 175 | 2% | 24% | |
| 176 | 3% | 22% | |
| 177 | 3% | 19% | |
| 178 | 2% | 17% | |
| 179 | 2% | 14% | |
| 180 | 2% | 12% | |
| 181 | 2% | 10% | |
| 182 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 183 | 2% | 8% | |
| 184 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 185 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 186 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 188 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 139 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 140 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 143 | 2% | 97% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 145 | 2% | 95% | |
| 146 | 2% | 93% | |
| 147 | 2% | 91% | |
| 148 | 2% | 90% | |
| 149 | 2% | 88% | |
| 150 | 3% | 86% | |
| 151 | 4% | 83% | |
| 152 | 5% | 79% | |
| 153 | 5% | 74% | |
| 154 | 3% | 70% | |
| 155 | 3% | 67% | |
| 156 | 3% | 64% | |
| 157 | 4% | 61% | |
| 158 | 3% | 57% | |
| 159 | 3% | 54% | |
| 160 | 3% | 51% | |
| 161 | 3% | 48% | |
| 162 | 3% | 45% | |
| 163 | 3% | 42% | Median |
| 164 | 4% | 39% | |
| 165 | 4% | 35% | |
| 166 | 4% | 32% | |
| 167 | 3% | 28% | |
| 168 | 4% | 24% | |
| 169 | 3% | 21% | |
| 170 | 2% | 18% | |
| 171 | 3% | 15% | |
| 172 | 3% | 13% | |
| 173 | 1.1% | 10% | |
| 174 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 175 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 176 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 177 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 178 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 179 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 3% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 138 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 139 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 140 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 141 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 142 | 2% | 92% | |
| 143 | 4% | 90% | |
| 144 | 2% | 87% | |
| 145 | 4% | 85% | |
| 146 | 4% | 81% | |
| 147 | 4% | 77% | |
| 148 | 5% | 73% | |
| 149 | 5% | 68% | |
| 150 | 7% | 63% | |
| 151 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 152 | 7% | 50% | |
| 153 | 7% | 43% | |
| 154 | 4% | 36% | |
| 155 | 4% | 31% | |
| 156 | 4% | 27% | |
| 157 | 4% | 24% | |
| 158 | 3% | 20% | |
| 159 | 2% | 17% | |
| 160 | 2% | 15% | |
| 161 | 1.3% | 13% | |
| 162 | 2% | 11% | |
| 163 | 1.1% | 10% | |
| 164 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 165 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 166 | 1.0% | 6% | Last Result |
| 167 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 169 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 170 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Social Changes
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 5–10 July 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1022
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.73%