Koalicja Obywatelska

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 31.7% (General Election of 25 October 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 26.2% 20.7–28.7% 19.0–29.5% 18.2–30.2% 17.0–31.4%
10–11 October 2019 IBSP 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
11 October 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 22.3% 20.7–23.9% 20.3–24.4% 19.9–24.8% 19.2–25.7%
4–10 October 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 24.3% 22.7–26.1% 22.2–26.6% 21.8–27.1% 21.0–28.0%
9–10 October 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 25.9% 24.5–27.5% 24.1–27.9% 23.8–28.2% 23.1–29.0%
9–10 October 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 27.2% 25.5–29.0% 25.0–29.5% 24.6–30.0% 23.8–30.8%
9–10 October 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 25.3% 23.6–27.1% 23.1–27.7% 22.7–28.1% 21.9–29.0%
3–10 October 2019 CBOS 19.0% 17.4–20.6% 17.0–21.1% 16.7–21.5% 16.0–22.3%
9–10 October 2019 CBM Indicator
TVP		 27.0% 25.2–28.8% 24.7–29.4% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
9 October 2019 IBRiS
Radio ZET		 22.5% 21.0–24.2% 20.5–24.7% 20.2–25.1% 19.4–25.9%
8 October 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 22.7% 21.2–24.4% 20.7–24.9% 20.3–25.3% 19.6–26.1%
1–5 October 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
Gazeta Wyborcza, Gazeta.pl and TOK FM		 29.0% 27.2–30.8% 26.7–31.4% 26.2–31.8% 25.4–32.8%
4–5 October 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 24.6% 23.0–26.4% 22.6–26.9% 22.2–27.3% 21.4–28.1%
3–4 October 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 26.4% 24.7–28.2% 24.2–28.8% 23.8–29.2% 23.0–30.1%
30 September–4 October 2019 Dobra Opinia
PPG		 27.7% 27.1–28.3% 26.9–28.5% 26.7–28.7% 26.4–29.0%
2–3 October 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 24.3% 22.7–26.0% 22.2–26.5% 21.8–26.9% 21.1–27.7%
27 September–2 October 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 26.1% 24.4–28.0% 23.9–28.5% 23.5–28.9% 22.7–29.8%
1–2 October 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 28.5% 26.8–30.3% 26.3–30.8% 25.9–31.3% 25.1–32.1%
2 October 2019 IBRiS
Radio ZET		 25.0% 23.4–26.7% 22.9–27.2% 22.5–27.6% 21.8–28.5%
25–26 September 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 28.0% 26.2–29.8% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.8% 24.4–31.7%
20–25 September 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 27.8% 26.1–29.7% 25.6–30.2% 25.1–30.6% 24.3–31.5%
24–25 September 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 26.0% 24.3–27.7% 23.9–28.2% 23.5–28.7% 22.7–29.5%
23–25 September 2019 CBM Indicator
TVP		 26.1% 24.4–27.9% 23.9–28.5% 23.5–28.9% 22.7–29.8%
20–21 September 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 23.9% 22.3–25.6% 21.9–26.1% 21.5–26.5% 20.7–27.4%
17–19 September 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 27.9% 26.1–29.7% 25.6–30.3% 25.2–30.7% 24.4–31.6%
12–19 September 2019 CBOS 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.8% 19.7–26.6%
13–18 September 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 26.1% 24.3–27.9% 23.9–28.4% 23.4–28.9% 22.6–29.8%
13–17 September 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
Gazeta Wyborcza		 30.0% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.4% 27.2–32.9% 26.4–33.9%
12–14 September 2019 IBSP 30.9% 29.0–32.8% 28.5–33.3% 28.1–33.8% 27.2–34.7%
12–13 September 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.7% 22.6–29.6%
6–11 September 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 26.5% 24.8–28.3% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.3% 23.1–30.2%
6–11 September 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.8–26.3% 21.4–26.8% 20.6–27.7%
6–7 September 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 22.7% 21.1–24.5% 20.6–25.0% 20.2–25.4% 19.4–26.3%
4–6 September 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 28.0% 26.3–29.8% 25.8–30.3% 25.4–30.7% 24.6–31.6%
4–5 September 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 27.4% 25.6–29.2% 25.1–29.8% 24.7–30.2% 23.9–31.1%
30 August–4 September 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 29.1% 27.4–31.0% 26.9–31.5% 26.4–32.0% 25.6–32.9%
24 August–4 September 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 21.3% 20.7–21.9% 20.5–22.1% 20.4–22.2% 20.1–22.5%
23–29 August 2019 Dobra Opinia
PPG		 30.0% 29.3–30.7% 29.2–30.9% 29.0–31.0% 28.7–31.3%
22–29 August 2019 CBOS 21.9% 20.3–23.6% 19.8–24.1% 19.4–24.5% 18.7–25.3%
23–28 August 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 30.6% 28.8–32.5% 28.3–33.0% 27.8–33.5% 27.0–34.4%
26–28 August 2019 Ipsos
OKO		 28.0% 26.3–29.9% 25.8–30.4% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
26 August 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 26.6% 25.0–28.4% 24.5–28.9% 24.1–29.3% 23.3–30.2%
24–26 August 2019 CBM Indicator
TVP		 28.5% 26.7–30.4% 26.2–30.9% 25.8–31.4% 25.0–32.3%
23–24 August 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 25.0% 23.4–26.7% 22.9–27.2% 22.5–27.6% 21.8–28.5%
22 August 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 30.0% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.5% 27.3–32.9% 26.4–33.9%
21–22 August 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 30.4% 28.6–32.3% 28.1–32.8% 27.7–33.3% 26.8–34.2%
16–21 August 2019 Social Changes 30.8% 29.0–32.7% 28.5–33.2% 28.0–33.7% 27.2–34.6%
16–20 August 2019 Ariadna 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.8% 23.6–30.7%
13 August 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 26.7% 25.0–28.6% 24.5–29.1% 24.1–29.6% 23.3–30.5%
9–10 August 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 27.0% 25.3–28.8% 24.9–29.3% 24.4–29.7% 23.7–30.6%
6–8 August 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 30.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–7 August 2019 Social Changes 26.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–7 August 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 27.0% 25.3–28.8% 24.8–29.3% 24.4–29.8% 23.6–30.6%
26–31 July 2019 Social Changes 29.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–27 July 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 21.7% 20.2–23.4% 19.8–23.9% 19.4–24.3% 18.7–25.1%
19–24 July 2019 Social Changes 29.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–19 July 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 30.1% 28.3–32.0% 27.8–32.6% 27.4–33.0% 26.5–34.0%
12–17 July 2019 Social Changes 28.3% 26.5–30.2% 26.0–30.7% 25.6–31.2% 24.8–32.1%
12–17 July 2019 Kantar Public
Radio ZET		 29.0% 27.1–30.9% 26.6–31.4% 26.2–31.9% 25.3–32.8%
12–15 July 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
12–13 July 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 26.5% 24.9–28.3% 24.4–28.8% 24.0–29.2% 23.2–30.1%
4–11 July 2019 CBOS 22.0% 20.4–23.6% 20.0–24.1% 19.6–24.5% 18.9–25.3%
5–10 July 2019 Social Changes 27.8% 26.0–29.6% 25.5–30.2% 25.1–30.6% 24.3–31.5%
28–29 June 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 21.2% 19.7–22.8% 19.2–23.3% 18.9–23.7% 18.2–24.5%
21–26 June 2019 Social Changes 25.2% 23.5–27.0% 23.0–27.5% 22.6–27.9% 21.9–28.8%
19–20 June 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 24.3% 22.6–26.0% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.0% 20.9–27.9%
6–13 June 2019 CBOS 25.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–8 June 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 May–5 June 2019 Social Changes 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–29 May 2019 Social Changes 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–23 May 2019 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–15 May 2019 Social Changes 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–15 May 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
Gazeta Wyborcza		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–4 May 2019 Pracownia Analiz Społeczno-Politycznych
Gazeta Bałtycka		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–30 April 2019 Social Changes 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–29 April 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19–24 April 2019 Social Changes 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–17 April 2019 Social Changes 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25–27 March 2019 Instytut Badań Spraw Narodowościowych
Radio ZET		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–22 March 2019 CBM Indicator
TVP1		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–21 March 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–14 March 2019 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–13 March 2019 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–10 March 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–21 February 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14–16 February 2019 IPSOS
OKO.press		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–14 February 2019 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–13 February 2019 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–11 February 2019 OPB Ariadna
WP		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–8 February 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–7 February 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 January–6 February 2019 Instytut Badań Spraw Narodowościowych
Radio ZET		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–5 February 2019 Kantar Millward Brown 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 January 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–27 January 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25–26 January 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
23–24 January 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–17 January 2019 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–16 January 2019 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
15–16 January 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
Gazeta Wyborcza		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–11 January 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 January 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–14 December 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–13 December 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 November–11 December 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
29 November–9 December 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–8 December 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
23–24 November 2018 IBRiS
Onet		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–21 November 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19–20 November 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–15 November 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–15 November 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13 November 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–9 November 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
29–30 October 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–27 October 2018 IBRiS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–17 October 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–11 October 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–6 October 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 October 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22–23 September 2018 IBRiS
Onet		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–21 September 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14–17 September 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–13 September 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–12 September 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25 August–1 September 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22–23 August 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–23 August 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
17–19 August 2018 IPSOS
OKO.press		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 August 2018 Kantar Public
Gazeta Prawna		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 August 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–10 August 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–10 August 2018 CBM Indicator
TVP1		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–9 August 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27 July 2018 IBRiS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–12 July 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–11 July 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–9 July 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–5 July 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
28 June–5 July 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27–28 June 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21–22 June 2018 IBRiS
Onet		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18 June 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–17 June 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–14 June 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–14 June 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–8 June 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–7 June 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
28–29 May 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–25 May 2018 IBRiS
Onet		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
23–24 May 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–17 May 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–16 May 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14 May 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–11 May 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–11 May 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27–29 April 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25–27 April 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25–26 April 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25–26 April 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19 April 2018 IBRiS
Onet		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–13 April 2018 IPSOS
OKO.press		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–12 April 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–10 April 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–7 April 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–5 April 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–5 April 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 April 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
29–30 March 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–27 March 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21–22 March 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
17 March 2018 IBRiS
Onet		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–14 March 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–8 March 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–2 March 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26 February 2018 IBRiS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22 February 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21–22 February 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–21 February 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19–20 February 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20 February 2018 IBRiS
Onet		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–8 February 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 February 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Koalicja Obywatelska.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14.5–15.5% 0% 100%  
15.5–16.5% 0.2% 100%  
16.5–17.5% 0.9% 99.8%  
17.5–18.5% 2% 98.9%  
18.5–19.5% 3% 96%  
19.5–20.5% 3% 93%  
20.5–21.5% 3% 90%  
21.5–22.5% 4% 87%  
22.5–23.5% 5% 83%  
23.5–24.5% 8% 78%  
24.5–25.5% 11% 70%  
25.5–26.5% 14% 59% Median
26.5–27.5% 17% 45%  
27.5–28.5% 16% 27%  
28.5–29.5% 7% 11%  
29.5–30.5% 3% 5%  
30.5–31.5% 1.2% 2%  
31.5–32.5% 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
32.5–33.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
33.5–34.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 166 seats (General Election of 25 October 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 131 106–148 99–153 95–159 90–168
10–11 October 2019 IBSP 132 120–143 117–145 115–147 108–151
11 October 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 121 110–134 107–137 103–140 98–144
4–10 October 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 116 104–128 101–132 99–134 97–140
9–10 October 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 139 128–148 126–150 125–152 120–156
9–10 October 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 136 125–146 122–149 119–151 115–154
9–10 October 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 122 114–136 110–140 107–142 101–146
3–10 October 2019 CBOS 99 92–110 90–114 88–117 85–122
9–10 October 2019 CBM Indicator
TVP		 131 121–143 118–146 116–148 111–152
9 October 2019 IBRiS
Radio ZET		 121 111–131 107–136 104–138 98–144
8 October 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 119 110–133 106–136 103–139 98–143
1–5 October 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
Gazeta Wyborcza, Gazeta.pl and TOK FM		 153 145–166 143–168 141–173 135–178
4–5 October 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 132 119–144 116–146 115–148 110–151
3–4 October 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 129 117–143 116–145 114–147 109–150
30 September–4 October 2019 Dobra Opinia
PPG		 142 138–145 136–145 135–146 131–147
2–3 October 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 133 119–145 117–146 115–148 111–152
27 September–2 October 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 127 117–139 114–143 111–145 104–149
1–2 October 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 144 131–152 129–155 127–157 123–162
2 October 2019 IBRiS
Radio ZET		 138 125–147 121–149 119–151 115–154
25–26 September 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 153 144–165 141–169 138–172 132–177
20–25 September 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 138 126–148 123–151 121–153 117–157
24–25 September 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 131 121–142 118–145 116–147 111–151
23–25 September 2019 CBM Indicator
TVP		 141 128–150 124–153 121–155 116–159
20–21 September 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 124 114–138 112–141 109–143 103–146
17–19 September 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 141 126–148 123–151 120–153 116–157
12–19 September 2019 CBOS 132 120–146 118–149 115–151 110–155
13–18 September 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 126 116–138 113–142 110–144 104–148
13–17 September 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
Gazeta Wyborcza		 160 150–173 148–176 146–179 143–183
12–14 September 2019 IBSP 153 145–163 143–167 140–171 135–176
12–13 September 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 128 119–139 116–143 113–146 107–150
6–11 September 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 126 117–138 114–142 112–144 107–149
6–11 September 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 141 127–151 124–153 121–156 116–161
6–7 September 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 125 114–140 111–143 109–145 103–148
4–6 September 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 141 129–150 127–152 124–154 119–158
4–5 September 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 141 126–148 123–151 120–153 116–157
30 August–4 September 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 145 131–153 128–155 127–157 122–163
24 August–4 September 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 112 110–118 109–119 107–120 105–122
23–29 August 2019 Dobra Opinia
PPG		 156 153–158 152–159 151–159 149–161
22–29 August 2019 CBOS 107 97–116 95–118 93–120 91–127
23–28 August 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 151 141–161 138–164 135–167 130–171
26–28 August 2019 Ipsos
OKO		 151 142–161 140–165 138–168 132–175
26 August 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 144 131–153 128–154 126–157 122–163
24–26 August 2019 CBM Indicator
TVP		 155 147–167 145–171 142–174 137–179
23–24 August 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 137 126–147 123–149 120–151 114–155
22 August 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 162 152–174 150–178 148–181 143–186
21–22 August 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 157 148–167 145–170 142–172 138–177
16–21 August 2019 Social Changes 152 143–161 140–165 136–167 129–172
16–20 August 2019 Ariadna 147 137–157 132–159 129–161 123–166
13 August 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 148 140–158 136–161 132–163 126–169
9–10 August 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 148 138–156 134–160 131–163 126–169
6–8 August 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
2–7 August 2019 Social Changes          
6–7 August 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 142 133–151 130–153 126–156 120–162
26–31 July 2019 Social Changes          
26–27 July 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 126 113–138 110–142 107–143 102–147
19–24 July 2019 Social Changes          
18–19 July 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 170 159–184 157–189 154–190 149–197
12–17 July 2019 Social Changes 153 145–170 142–171 138–171 135–179
12–17 July 2019 Kantar Public
Radio ZET		 186 173–198 169–203 166–207 158–213
12–15 July 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		 162 152–176 149–179 147–183 141–189
12–13 July 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 157 149–172 145–176 143–178 138–185
4–11 July 2019 CBOS 143 127–151 124–155 121–157 116–162
5–10 July 2019 Social Changes 151 143–162 139–167 137–170 130–177
28–29 June 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 131 121–145 118–150 114–152 104–156
21–26 June 2019 Social Changes 146 137–157 134–161 130–164 125–167
19–20 June 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 139 126–146 120–149 117–150 114–159
6–13 June 2019 CBOS          
7–8 June 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
31 May–5 June 2019 Social Changes          
24–29 May 2019 Social Changes          
16–23 May 2019 CBOS          
10–15 May 2019 Social Changes          
10–15 May 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
Gazeta Wyborcza		          
1–4 May 2019 Pracownia Analiz Społeczno-Politycznych
Gazeta Bałtycka		          
26–30 April 2019 Social Changes          
26–29 April 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		          
19–24 April 2019 Social Changes          
12–17 April 2019 Social Changes          
25–27 March 2019 Instytut Badań Spraw Narodowościowych
Radio ZET		          
20–22 March 2019 CBM Indicator
TVP1		          
20–21 March 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
7–14 March 2019 CBOS          
8–13 March 2019 Kantar Public          
9–10 March 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
20–21 February 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
14–16 February 2019 IPSOS
OKO.press		          
7–14 February 2019 CBOS          
8–13 February 2019 Kantar Public          
8–11 February 2019 OPB Ariadna
WP		          
7–8 February 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
5–7 February 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
31 January–6 February 2019 Instytut Badań Spraw Narodowościowych
Radio ZET		          
4–5 February 2019 Kantar Millward Brown          
30 January 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		          
26–27 January 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
25–26 January 2019 IBRiS
Onet		          
23–24 January 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
10–17 January 2019 CBOS          
11–16 January 2019 Kantar Public          
15–16 January 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
Gazeta Wyborcza		          
10–11 January 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		          
4 January 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
13–14 December 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		          
12–13 December 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
30 November–11 December 2018 Kantar Public          
29 November–9 December 2018 CBOS          
7–8 December 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
23–24 November 2018 IBRiS
Onet		          
20–21 November 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
19–20 November 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		          
9–15 November 2018 Kantar Public          
8–15 November 2018 CBOS          
13 November 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
8–9 November 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
29–30 October 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
26–27 October 2018 IBRiS          
12–17 October 2018 Kantar Public          
4–11 October 2018 CBOS          
5–6 October 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
1 October 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		          
22–23 September 2018 IBRiS
Onet		          
20–21 September 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
14–17 September 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		          
6–13 September 2018 CBOS          
7–12 September 2018 Kantar Public          
25 August–1 September 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
22–23 August 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
16–23 August 2018 CBOS          
17–19 August 2018 IPSOS
OKO.press		          
11 August 2018 Kantar Public
Gazeta Prawna		          
11 August 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
9–10 August 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		          
8–10 August 2018 CBM Indicator
TVP1		          
8–9 August 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
27 July 2018 IBRiS          
11–12 July 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		          
6–11 July 2018 Kantar Public          
8–9 July 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
4–5 July 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		          
28 June–5 July 2018 CBOS          
27–28 June 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
21–22 June 2018 IBRiS
Onet		          
18 June 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		          
9–17 June 2018 Kantar Public          
13–14 June 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
7–14 June 2018 CBOS          
7–8 June 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
6–7 June 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		          
28–29 May 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		          
24–25 May 2018 IBRiS
Onet		          
23–24 May 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
10–17 May 2018 CBOS          
11–16 May 2018 Kantar Public          
14 May 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
10–11 May 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		          
10–11 May 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
27–29 April 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express		          
25–27 April 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express		          
25–26 April 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		          
25–26 April 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
19 April 2018 IBRiS
Onet		          
12–13 April 2018 IPSOS
OKO.press		          
5–12 April 2018 CBOS          
9–10 April 2018 Kantar Public          
6–7 April 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		          
4–5 April 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express		          
4–5 April 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
4 April 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
29–30 March 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		          
26–27 March 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		          
21–22 March 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
17 March 2018 IBRiS
Onet		          
9–14 March 2018 Kantar Public          
1–8 March 2018 CBOS          
1–2 March 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
26 February 2018 IBRiS          
22 February 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express		          
21–22 February 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
16–21 February 2018 Kantar Public          
19–20 February 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		          
20 February 2018 IBRiS
Onet		          
1–8 February 2018 CBOS          
5 February 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Koalicja Obywatelska.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.1% 99.7%  
90 0.2% 99.6%  
91 0.2% 99.4%  
92 0.4% 99.2%  
93 0.5% 98.8%  
94 0.6% 98%  
95 0.6% 98%  
96 0.6% 97%  
97 0.7% 96%  
98 0.7% 96%  
99 0.9% 95%  
100 0.7% 94%  
101 0.7% 93%  
102 0.7% 93%  
103 0.6% 92%  
104 0.8% 91%  
105 0.5% 91%  
106 0.7% 90%  
107 0.8% 89%  
108 0.7% 89%  
109 0.7% 88%  
110 0.8% 87%  
111 0.9% 86%  
112 1.2% 86%  
113 0.9% 84%  
114 1.3% 83%  
115 1.5% 82%  
116 2% 81%  
117 1.1% 79%  
118 1.5% 78%  
119 2% 76%  
120 2% 74%  
121 2% 72%  
122 2% 70%  
123 2% 68%  
124 2% 66%  
125 2% 64%  
126 2% 62%  
127 2% 60%  
128 3% 57%  
129 2% 55%  
130 2% 52%  
131 2% 50% Median
132 2% 48%  
133 2% 46%  
134 2% 44%  
135 2% 42%  
136 2% 40%  
137 2% 38%  
138 3% 35%  
139 2% 33%  
140 3% 31%  
141 4% 28%  
142 3% 24%  
143 3% 22%  
144 3% 19%  
145 3% 16%  
146 1.4% 13%  
147 1.4% 12%  
148 1.2% 11%  
149 0.9% 9%  
150 1.0% 8%  
151 0.7% 7%  
152 0.9% 7%  
153 1.1% 6%  
154 0.6% 5%  
155 0.2% 4%  
156 0.4% 4%  
157 0.4% 3%  
158 0.5% 3%  
159 0.4% 3%  
160 0.3% 2%  
161 0.2% 2%  
162 0.1% 2%  
163 0.1% 2%  
164 0.1% 1.4%  
165 0.2% 1.3%  
166 0.4% 1.1% Last Result
167 0.2% 0.7%  
168 0.1% 0.6%  
169 0% 0.4%  
170 0% 0.4%  
171 0.1% 0.4%  
172 0% 0.3%  
173 0.1% 0.3%  
174 0% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%