Opinion Poll by CBOS, 4–11 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość 37.6% 44.0% 42.1–45.9% 41.6–46.5% 41.1–46.9% 40.2–47.9%
Koalicja Obywatelska 31.7% 22.0% 20.4–23.6% 20.0–24.1% 19.6–24.5% 18.9–25.3%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe 5.1% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.5% 4.4–8.0%
Kukiz’15 8.8% 4.0% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.8%
Wiosna 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.8%
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej 7.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.2–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
KORWiN 4.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.2–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
Lewica Razem 3.6% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość 235 294 282–310 277–313 275–319 270–323
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 143 127–151 124–155 121–157 116–162
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe 16 23 19–30 0–32 0–35 0–37
Kukiz’15 42 0 0 0 0–15 0–19
Wiosna 0 0 0 0 0–18 0–25
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej 0 0 0 0 0 0
KORWiN 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewica Razem 0 0 0 0 0 0

Prawo i Sprawiedliwość

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100% Last Result
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.3% 99.5%  
272 0.5% 99.2%  
273 0.4% 98.6%  
274 0.5% 98%  
275 0.4% 98%  
276 1.2% 97%  
277 1.5% 96%  
278 0.8% 95%  
279 0.9% 94%  
280 1.1% 93%  
281 2% 92%  
282 1.5% 90%  
283 1.1% 89%  
284 1.3% 88%  
285 3% 86%  
286 4% 83%  
287 5% 79%  
288 2% 74%  
289 2% 72%  
290 2% 70%  
291 3% 68%  
292 3% 65%  
293 8% 61%  
294 10% 54% Median
295 3% 43%  
296 7% 41%  
297 1.2% 34%  
298 0.8% 33%  
299 2% 32%  
300 2% 29%  
301 1.4% 28%  
302 2% 26%  
303 1.1% 25%  
304 0.9% 24%  
305 1.1% 23%  
306 2% 22%  
307 1.1% 19%  
308 3% 18%  
309 3% 15%  
310 4% 12%  
311 0.9% 7%  
312 0.8% 6%  
313 0.7% 6%  
314 1.0% 5%  
315 0.2% 4%  
316 0.5% 4%  
317 0.1% 3%  
318 0.3% 3%  
319 0.3% 3%  
320 0.5% 2%  
321 0.9% 2%  
322 0.2% 1.1%  
323 0.5% 0.9%  
324 0% 0.4%  
325 0% 0.4%  
326 0.1% 0.3%  
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.8%  
116 0.1% 99.6%  
117 0.6% 99.4%  
118 0.2% 98.9%  
119 0.7% 98.7%  
120 0.4% 98%  
121 1.0% 98%  
122 0.8% 97%  
123 0.5% 96%  
124 1.2% 95%  
125 0.8% 94%  
126 2% 93%  
127 4% 92%  
128 2% 87%  
129 3% 85%  
130 3% 82%  
131 4% 80%  
132 2% 76%  
133 2% 74%  
134 0.2% 72%  
135 0.7% 72%  
136 0.9% 71%  
137 2% 70%  
138 1.2% 68%  
139 4% 67%  
140 3% 62%  
141 2% 59%  
142 4% 57%  
143 14% 53% Median
144 4% 38%  
145 4% 34%  
146 3% 30%  
147 1.4% 28%  
148 3% 26%  
149 3% 23%  
150 7% 20%  
151 5% 13%  
152 1.4% 9%  
153 1.3% 7%  
154 0.7% 6%  
155 1.0% 5%  
156 0.9% 4%  
157 0.9% 3%  
158 0.4% 2%  
159 0.6% 2%  
160 0.6% 1.4%  
161 0.4% 0.9%  
162 0.3% 0.5%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1% Last Result
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0% 93%  
7 0% 93%  
8 0% 93%  
9 0% 93%  
10 0% 93%  
11 0% 93%  
12 0% 93%  
13 0% 93%  
14 0% 93%  
15 0% 93%  
16 0.1% 93% Last Result
17 0.5% 93%  
18 0.3% 92%  
19 2% 92%  
20 4% 90%  
21 14% 86%  
22 4% 72%  
23 31% 69% Median
24 5% 38%  
25 3% 33%  
26 2% 30%  
27 4% 28%  
28 9% 24%  
29 3% 14%  
30 5% 11%  
31 1.1% 6%  
32 1.4% 5%  
33 0.7% 4%  
34 0.4% 3%  
35 0.4% 3%  
36 0.9% 2%  
37 1.2% 2%  
38 0.1% 0.3%  
39 0% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Kukiz’15

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0% 5%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0% 5%  
7 0% 5%  
8 0% 5%  
9 0.1% 5%  
10 0.1% 5%  
11 0.8% 4%  
12 0.1% 4%  
13 0.5% 3%  
14 0.3% 3%  
15 0.4% 3%  
16 0.7% 2%  
17 0.5% 1.4%  
18 0.3% 1.0%  
19 0.2% 0.6%  
20 0.1% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Wiosna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wiosna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0% 5%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0% 5%  
7 0% 5%  
8 0% 5%  
9 0% 5%  
10 0% 5%  
11 0% 5%  
12 0% 5%  
13 0.1% 5%  
14 0.2% 5%  
15 0.2% 4%  
16 0.9% 4%  
17 0.8% 3%  
18 0.6% 3%  
19 0.6% 2%  
20 0.3% 1.3%  
21 0.1% 1.1%  
22 0.2% 1.0%  
23 0.2% 0.8%  
24 0.1% 0.6%  
25 0.4% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

KORWiN

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość 235 294 100% 282–310 277–313 275–319 270–323
Koalicja Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Lewica Razem 182 166 0% 150–175 145–180 140–183 134–188
Koalicja Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe 182 166 0% 150–175 145–180 140–183 134–188
Koalicja Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej 182 166 0% 150–175 145–180 140–183 134–188
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 143 0% 127–151 124–155 121–157 116–162
Koalicja Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej 166 143 0% 127–151 124–155 121–157 116–162

Prawo i Sprawiedliwość

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100% Last Result
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.3% 99.5%  
272 0.5% 99.2%  
273 0.4% 98.6%  
274 0.5% 98%  
275 0.4% 98%  
276 1.2% 97%  
277 1.5% 96%  
278 0.8% 95%  
279 0.9% 94%  
280 1.1% 93%  
281 2% 92%  
282 1.5% 90%  
283 1.1% 89%  
284 1.3% 88%  
285 3% 86%  
286 4% 83%  
287 5% 79%  
288 2% 74%  
289 2% 72%  
290 2% 70%  
291 3% 68%  
292 3% 65%  
293 8% 61%  
294 10% 54% Median
295 3% 43%  
296 7% 41%  
297 1.2% 34%  
298 0.8% 33%  
299 2% 32%  
300 2% 29%  
301 1.4% 28%  
302 2% 26%  
303 1.1% 25%  
304 0.9% 24%  
305 1.1% 23%  
306 2% 22%  
307 1.1% 19%  
308 3% 18%  
309 3% 15%  
310 4% 12%  
311 0.9% 7%  
312 0.8% 6%  
313 0.7% 6%  
314 1.0% 5%  
315 0.2% 4%  
316 0.5% 4%  
317 0.1% 3%  
318 0.3% 3%  
319 0.3% 3%  
320 0.5% 2%  
321 0.9% 2%  
322 0.2% 1.1%  
323 0.5% 0.9%  
324 0% 0.4%  
325 0% 0.4%  
326 0.1% 0.3%  
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Lewica Razem

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.8%  
131 0% 99.7%  
132 0.1% 99.7%  
133 0.1% 99.6%  
134 0.1% 99.5%  
135 0% 99.4%  
136 0.1% 99.4%  
137 0.6% 99.3%  
138 0.2% 98.8%  
139 1.0% 98.5%  
140 0.6% 98%  
141 0.5% 97%  
142 0.4% 97%  
143 0.2% 96%  
144 0.5% 96%  
145 0.4% 95%  
146 1.1% 95%  
147 0.8% 94%  
148 0.9% 93%  
149 1.2% 92%  
150 5% 91%  
151 3% 86%  
152 4% 83%  
153 1.3% 79%  
154 2% 78%  
155 1.2% 75%  
156 2% 74%  
157 1.1% 72%  
158 2% 71%  
159 2% 69%  
160 2% 68%  
161 2% 66%  
162 1.1% 63%  
163 1.3% 62%  
164 7% 61%  
165 3% 54%  
166 10% 51% Median
167 7% 41%  
168 3% 33%  
169 3% 30%  
170 2% 27%  
171 2% 25%  
172 1.5% 22%  
173 5% 21%  
174 4% 16%  
175 2% 12%  
176 0.9% 9%  
177 0.8% 8%  
178 1.1% 7%  
179 1.2% 6%  
180 0.9% 5%  
181 0.6% 4%  
182 0.7% 4% Last Result
183 0.6% 3%  
184 1.0% 2%  
185 0.3% 1.4%  
186 0.3% 1.2%  
187 0.3% 0.9%  
188 0.4% 0.6%  
189 0.2% 0.3%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.8%  
131 0% 99.7%  
132 0.1% 99.7%  
133 0.1% 99.6%  
134 0.1% 99.5%  
135 0% 99.4%  
136 0.1% 99.4%  
137 0.6% 99.3%  
138 0.2% 98.8%  
139 1.0% 98.5%  
140 0.6% 98%  
141 0.5% 97%  
142 0.4% 96%  
143 0.2% 96%  
144 0.5% 96%  
145 0.4% 95%  
146 1.1% 95%  
147 0.8% 94%  
148 0.9% 93%  
149 1.2% 92%  
150 5% 91%  
151 3% 86%  
152 4% 83%  
153 1.3% 79%  
154 2% 78%  
155 1.2% 75%  
156 2% 74%  
157 1.1% 72%  
158 2% 71%  
159 2% 69%  
160 2% 67%  
161 2% 66%  
162 1.1% 63%  
163 1.3% 62%  
164 7% 61%  
165 3% 54%  
166 10% 51% Median
167 7% 41%  
168 3% 33%  
169 3% 30%  
170 2% 27%  
171 2% 24%  
172 1.5% 22%  
173 5% 21%  
174 4% 16%  
175 2% 12%  
176 0.9% 9%  
177 0.8% 8%  
178 1.1% 7%  
179 1.2% 6%  
180 0.9% 5%  
181 0.6% 4%  
182 0.7% 4% Last Result
183 0.6% 3%  
184 1.0% 2%  
185 0.3% 1.4%  
186 0.3% 1.2%  
187 0.3% 0.9%  
188 0.4% 0.6%  
189 0.2% 0.3%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.8%  
131 0% 99.7%  
132 0.1% 99.7%  
133 0.1% 99.6%  
134 0.1% 99.5%  
135 0% 99.4%  
136 0.1% 99.4%  
137 0.6% 99.3%  
138 0.2% 98.8%  
139 1.0% 98.5%  
140 0.6% 98%  
141 0.5% 97%  
142 0.4% 97%  
143 0.2% 96%  
144 0.5% 96%  
145 0.4% 95%  
146 1.1% 95%  
147 0.8% 94%  
148 0.9% 93%  
149 1.2% 92%  
150 5% 91%  
151 3% 86%  
152 4% 83%  
153 1.3% 79%  
154 2% 78%  
155 1.2% 75%  
156 2% 74%  
157 1.1% 72%  
158 2% 71%  
159 2% 69%  
160 2% 68%  
161 2% 66%  
162 1.1% 63%  
163 1.3% 62%  
164 7% 61%  
165 3% 54%  
166 10% 51% Median
167 7% 41%  
168 3% 33%  
169 3% 30%  
170 2% 27%  
171 2% 25%  
172 1.5% 22%  
173 5% 21%  
174 4% 16%  
175 2% 12%  
176 0.9% 9%  
177 0.8% 8%  
178 1.1% 7%  
179 1.2% 6%  
180 0.9% 5%  
181 0.6% 4%  
182 0.7% 4% Last Result
183 0.6% 3%  
184 1.0% 2%  
185 0.3% 1.4%  
186 0.3% 1.2%  
187 0.3% 0.9%  
188 0.4% 0.6%  
189 0.2% 0.3%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.8%  
116 0.1% 99.6%  
117 0.6% 99.4%  
118 0.2% 98.9%  
119 0.7% 98.7%  
120 0.4% 98%  
121 1.0% 98%  
122 0.8% 97%  
123 0.5% 96%  
124 1.2% 95%  
125 0.8% 94%  
126 2% 93%  
127 4% 92%  
128 2% 87%  
129 3% 85%  
130 3% 82%  
131 4% 80%  
132 2% 76%  
133 2% 74%  
134 0.2% 72%  
135 0.7% 72%  
136 0.9% 71%  
137 2% 70%  
138 1.2% 68%  
139 4% 67%  
140 3% 62%  
141 2% 59%  
142 4% 57%  
143 14% 53% Median
144 4% 38%  
145 4% 34%  
146 3% 30%  
147 1.4% 28%  
148 3% 26%  
149 3% 23%  
150 7% 20%  
151 5% 13%  
152 1.4% 9%  
153 1.3% 7%  
154 0.7% 6%  
155 1.0% 5%  
156 0.9% 4%  
157 0.9% 3%  
158 0.4% 2%  
159 0.6% 2%  
160 0.6% 1.4%  
161 0.4% 0.9%  
162 0.3% 0.5%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1% Last Result
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.8%  
116 0.1% 99.6%  
117 0.6% 99.4%  
118 0.2% 98.9%  
119 0.7% 98.7%  
120 0.4% 98%  
121 1.0% 98%  
122 0.8% 97%  
123 0.5% 96%  
124 1.2% 95%  
125 0.8% 94%  
126 2% 93%  
127 4% 92%  
128 2% 87%  
129 3% 85%  
130 3% 82%  
131 4% 80%  
132 2% 76%  
133 2% 74%  
134 0.2% 72%  
135 0.7% 72%  
136 0.9% 71%  
137 2% 70%  
138 1.2% 68%  
139 4% 67%  
140 3% 62%  
141 2% 59%  
142 4% 57%  
143 14% 53% Median
144 4% 38%  
145 4% 34%  
146 3% 30%  
147 1.4% 28%  
148 3% 26%  
149 3% 23%  
150 7% 20%  
151 5% 13%  
152 1.4% 9%  
153 1.3% 7%  
154 0.7% 6%  
155 1.0% 5%  
156 0.9% 4%  
157 0.9% 3%  
158 0.4% 2%  
159 0.6% 2%  
160 0.6% 1.4%  
161 0.4% 0.9%  
162 0.3% 0.5%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1% Last Result
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations