Opinion Poll by Social Changes, 12–17 July 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 45.4% | 43.4–47.4% | 42.8–48.0% | 42.4–48.5% | 41.4–49.5% |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 31.7% | 28.3% | 26.5–30.2% | 26.0–30.7% | 25.6–31.2% | 24.8–32.1% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.7–7.1% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–7.9% |
| Wiosna | 0.0% | 5.8% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.7–7.1% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–7.9% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.2–6.6% | 4.1–6.8% | 3.7–7.4% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 264 | 253–276 | 250–280 | 243–285 | 238–288 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 166 | 153 | 145–170 | 142–171 | 138–171 | 135–179 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 16 | 0–25 | 0–26 | 0–27 | 0–28 |
| Wiosna | 0 | 13 | 8–27 | 0–27 | 0–28 | 0–31 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 10 | 0–17 | 0–22 | 0–26 | 0–29 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 233 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 237 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 238 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 241 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 242 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 243 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 244 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 245 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 246 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 248 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 249 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 250 | 3% | 95% | |
| 251 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 252 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 253 | 4% | 91% | |
| 254 | 2% | 87% | |
| 255 | 4% | 85% | |
| 256 | 3% | 81% | |
| 257 | 3% | 78% | |
| 258 | 7% | 75% | |
| 259 | 5% | 68% | |
| 260 | 3% | 63% | |
| 261 | 0.4% | 60% | |
| 262 | 3% | 59% | |
| 263 | 5% | 56% | |
| 264 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 265 | 2% | 44% | |
| 266 | 2% | 42% | |
| 267 | 1.3% | 40% | |
| 268 | 2% | 38% | |
| 269 | 1.1% | 36% | |
| 270 | 1.0% | 35% | |
| 271 | 8% | 34% | |
| 272 | 3% | 26% | |
| 273 | 6% | 23% | |
| 274 | 5% | 17% | |
| 275 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 276 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 277 | 4% | 10% | |
| 278 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 279 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 280 | 2% | 5% | |
| 281 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 282 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 283 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 284 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 285 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 287 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 288 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 292 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 293 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 294 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 296 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 297 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 299 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 300 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 302 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 129 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 135 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 138 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 142 | 2% | 96% | |
| 143 | 2% | 93% | |
| 144 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 145 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 146 | 4% | 89% | |
| 147 | 1.0% | 86% | |
| 148 | 7% | 85% | |
| 149 | 7% | 78% | |
| 150 | 4% | 71% | |
| 151 | 5% | 67% | |
| 152 | 6% | 62% | |
| 153 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 154 | 5% | 48% | |
| 155 | 2% | 43% | |
| 156 | 5% | 41% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 36% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 36% | |
| 159 | 0.7% | 35% | |
| 160 | 7% | 35% | |
| 161 | 0.7% | 28% | |
| 162 | 9% | 27% | |
| 163 | 3% | 18% | |
| 164 | 1.4% | 15% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 13% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 13% | |
| 169 | 2% | 12% | |
| 170 | 2% | 10% | |
| 171 | 5% | 8% | |
| 172 | 0% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 176 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 177 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 179 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 89% | |
| 2 | 0% | 89% | |
| 3 | 0% | 89% | |
| 4 | 0% | 89% | |
| 5 | 0% | 89% | |
| 6 | 0% | 89% | |
| 7 | 0% | 89% | |
| 8 | 0% | 89% | |
| 9 | 0% | 89% | |
| 10 | 0% | 89% | |
| 11 | 1.4% | 89% | |
| 12 | 3% | 87% | |
| 13 | 11% | 85% | |
| 14 | 5% | 73% | |
| 15 | 15% | 69% | |
| 16 | 6% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 17 | 7% | 48% | |
| 18 | 2% | 41% | |
| 19 | 2% | 39% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 38% | |
| 21 | 5% | 37% | |
| 22 | 2% | 32% | |
| 23 | 7% | 30% | |
| 24 | 9% | 23% | |
| 25 | 5% | 14% | |
| 26 | 4% | 9% | |
| 27 | 2% | 5% | |
| 28 | 2% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Wiosna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wiosna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | |
| 3 | 0% | 95% | |
| 4 | 0% | 95% | |
| 5 | 0% | 95% | |
| 6 | 0% | 95% | |
| 7 | 3% | 94% | |
| 8 | 7% | 91% | |
| 9 | 6% | 85% | |
| 10 | 13% | 78% | |
| 11 | 6% | 65% | |
| 12 | 2% | 59% | |
| 13 | 15% | 57% | Median |
| 14 | 4% | 43% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 39% | |
| 16 | 5% | 38% | |
| 17 | 1.1% | 33% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 32% | |
| 19 | 3% | 32% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 29% | |
| 21 | 1.0% | 28% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 27% | |
| 23 | 3% | 27% | |
| 24 | 3% | 23% | |
| 25 | 5% | 21% | |
| 26 | 4% | 15% | |
| 27 | 9% | 12% | |
| 28 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 31% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 69% | |
| 2 | 0% | 69% | |
| 3 | 0% | 69% | |
| 4 | 0% | 69% | |
| 5 | 0% | 69% | |
| 6 | 2% | 69% | |
| 7 | 8% | 68% | |
| 8 | 1.4% | 59% | |
| 9 | 5% | 58% | |
| 10 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 11 | 18% | 46% | |
| 12 | 4% | 27% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | 24% | |
| 14 | 1.4% | 22% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 21% | |
| 16 | 6% | 20% | |
| 17 | 4% | 14% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 10% | |
| 19 | 2% | 9% | |
| 20 | 2% | 7% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 22 | 2% | 5% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 5 | 3% | 5% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 264 | 100% | 253–276 | 250–280 | 243–285 | 238–288 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Lewica Razem | 182 | 180 | 0% | 168–193 | 161–195 | 155–201 | 151–211 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 182 | 180 | 0% | 168–193 | 161–195 | 155–201 | 151–211 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 182 | 170 | 0% | 160–187 | 157–192 | 154–192 | 147–199 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 166 | 164 | 0% | 152–174 | 148–180 | 143–184 | 137–193 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 166 | 153 | 0% | 145–170 | 142–171 | 138–171 | 135–179 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 233 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 237 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 238 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 241 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 242 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 243 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 244 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 245 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 246 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 248 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 249 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 250 | 3% | 95% | |
| 251 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 252 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 253 | 4% | 91% | |
| 254 | 2% | 87% | |
| 255 | 4% | 85% | |
| 256 | 3% | 81% | |
| 257 | 3% | 78% | |
| 258 | 7% | 75% | |
| 259 | 5% | 68% | |
| 260 | 3% | 63% | |
| 261 | 0.4% | 60% | |
| 262 | 3% | 59% | |
| 263 | 5% | 56% | |
| 264 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 265 | 2% | 44% | |
| 266 | 2% | 42% | |
| 267 | 1.3% | 40% | |
| 268 | 2% | 38% | |
| 269 | 1.1% | 36% | |
| 270 | 1.0% | 35% | |
| 271 | 8% | 34% | |
| 272 | 3% | 26% | |
| 273 | 6% | 23% | |
| 274 | 5% | 17% | |
| 275 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 276 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 277 | 4% | 10% | |
| 278 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 279 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 280 | 2% | 5% | |
| 281 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 282 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 283 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 284 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 285 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 287 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 288 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 292 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 293 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 294 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 296 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 297 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 299 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 300 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 302 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Lewica Razem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 154 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 161 | 2% | 97% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 164 | 2% | 94% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 168 | 2% | 91% | |
| 169 | 2% | 89% | |
| 170 | 7% | 87% | |
| 171 | 1.1% | 80% | |
| 172 | 0.9% | 79% | |
| 173 | 7% | 78% | |
| 174 | 2% | 71% | |
| 175 | 3% | 69% | |
| 176 | 3% | 65% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 62% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 62% | |
| 179 | 9% | 61% | Median |
| 180 | 5% | 52% | |
| 181 | 1.2% | 47% | |
| 182 | 0.5% | 46% | Last Result |
| 183 | 1.0% | 45% | |
| 184 | 2% | 44% | |
| 185 | 8% | 42% | |
| 186 | 8% | 34% | |
| 187 | 1.1% | 27% | |
| 188 | 0.9% | 25% | |
| 189 | 2% | 25% | |
| 190 | 0.9% | 22% | |
| 191 | 1.0% | 21% | |
| 192 | 4% | 20% | |
| 193 | 8% | 16% | |
| 194 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 195 | 3% | 8% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 197 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 199 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 200 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 202 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 206 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 208 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 216 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 154 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 161 | 2% | 97% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 164 | 2% | 94% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 168 | 2% | 91% | |
| 169 | 2% | 89% | |
| 170 | 7% | 87% | |
| 171 | 1.1% | 80% | |
| 172 | 0.9% | 79% | |
| 173 | 7% | 78% | |
| 174 | 2% | 71% | |
| 175 | 3% | 69% | |
| 176 | 3% | 65% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 62% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 62% | |
| 179 | 9% | 61% | Median |
| 180 | 5% | 52% | |
| 181 | 1.2% | 47% | |
| 182 | 0.5% | 46% | Last Result |
| 183 | 1.0% | 45% | |
| 184 | 2% | 44% | |
| 185 | 8% | 42% | |
| 186 | 8% | 34% | |
| 187 | 1.1% | 27% | |
| 188 | 0.9% | 25% | |
| 189 | 2% | 25% | |
| 190 | 0.9% | 22% | |
| 191 | 1.0% | 21% | |
| 192 | 4% | 20% | |
| 193 | 8% | 16% | |
| 194 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 195 | 3% | 8% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 197 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 199 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 200 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 202 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 206 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 208 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 216 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 154 | 2% | 98% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 156 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 158 | 2% | 95% | |
| 159 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 160 | 6% | 92% | |
| 161 | 4% | 87% | |
| 162 | 2% | 83% | |
| 163 | 5% | 81% | |
| 164 | 3% | 76% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 72% | |
| 166 | 6% | 72% | |
| 167 | 1.2% | 66% | |
| 168 | 9% | 64% | |
| 169 | 2% | 55% | Median |
| 170 | 4% | 54% | |
| 171 | 0.8% | 50% | |
| 172 | 2% | 49% | |
| 173 | 1.2% | 47% | |
| 174 | 4% | 46% | |
| 175 | 7% | 42% | |
| 176 | 4% | 35% | |
| 177 | 5% | 31% | |
| 178 | 6% | 26% | |
| 179 | 1.3% | 20% | |
| 180 | 3% | 19% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 15% | Last Result |
| 183 | 2% | 15% | |
| 184 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 186 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 10% | |
| 188 | 0.6% | 10% | |
| 189 | 2% | 9% | |
| 190 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 191 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 192 | 4% | 6% | |
| 193 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 194 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 199 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 140 | 0% | 98% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 143 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 148 | 2% | 95% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 151 | 2% | 93% | |
| 152 | 1.5% | 91% | |
| 153 | 2% | 89% | |
| 154 | 4% | 87% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 83% | |
| 156 | 10% | 82% | |
| 157 | 4% | 72% | |
| 158 | 2% | 69% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 67% | |
| 160 | 4% | 67% | |
| 161 | 4% | 63% | |
| 162 | 1.4% | 59% | |
| 163 | 1.1% | 57% | Median |
| 164 | 7% | 56% | |
| 165 | 4% | 50% | |
| 166 | 2% | 46% | Last Result |
| 167 | 2% | 44% | |
| 168 | 5% | 42% | |
| 169 | 2% | 37% | |
| 170 | 11% | 35% | |
| 171 | 6% | 24% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 18% | |
| 173 | 7% | 18% | |
| 174 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 176 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 177 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 179 | 3% | 8% | |
| 180 | 2% | 5% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 184 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 185 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 129 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 135 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 138 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 142 | 2% | 96% | |
| 143 | 2% | 93% | |
| 144 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 145 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 146 | 4% | 89% | |
| 147 | 1.0% | 86% | |
| 148 | 7% | 85% | |
| 149 | 7% | 78% | |
| 150 | 4% | 71% | |
| 151 | 5% | 67% | |
| 152 | 6% | 62% | |
| 153 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 154 | 5% | 48% | |
| 155 | 2% | 43% | |
| 156 | 5% | 41% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 36% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 36% | |
| 159 | 0.7% | 35% | |
| 160 | 7% | 35% | |
| 161 | 0.7% | 28% | |
| 162 | 9% | 27% | |
| 163 | 3% | 18% | |
| 164 | 1.4% | 15% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 13% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 13% | |
| 169 | 2% | 12% | |
| 170 | 2% | 10% | |
| 171 | 5% | 8% | |
| 172 | 0% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 176 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 177 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 179 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Social Changes
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12–17 July 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1004
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.28%