Opinion Poll by Social Changes, 2–7 August 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 45.8% | 43.8–47.8% | 43.3–48.4% | 42.8–48.9% | 41.8–49.8% |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 31.7% | 26.4% | 24.7–28.2% | 24.2–28.8% | 23.8–29.2% | 23.0–30.1% |
| Lewica Razem–Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej–Wiosna | 11.7% | 14.6% | 13.3–16.1% | 12.9–16.6% | 12.6–16.9% | 12.0–17.7% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.2–8.2% | 4.8–8.8% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 244 | 233–256 | 230–259 | 227–262 | 221–269 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 166 | 133 | 120–142 | 118–144 | 114–147 | 111–151 |
| Lewica Razem–Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej–Wiosna | 0 | 65 | 57–71 | 53–75 | 50–77 | 47–82 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 21 | 15–25 | 12–27 | 11–27 | 0–30 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 216 | 0% | 100% | |
| 217 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 221 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 222 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 223 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 224 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 225 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 226 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 227 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 228 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 229 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 230 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 231 | 1.4% | 94% | Majority |
| 232 | 2% | 93% | |
| 233 | 2% | 91% | |
| 234 | 2% | 89% | |
| 235 | 2% | 88% | Last Result |
| 236 | 3% | 86% | |
| 237 | 3% | 83% | |
| 238 | 4% | 80% | |
| 239 | 4% | 76% | |
| 240 | 5% | 73% | |
| 241 | 9% | 67% | |
| 242 | 4% | 59% | |
| 243 | 4% | 55% | |
| 244 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 245 | 6% | 43% | |
| 246 | 4% | 37% | |
| 247 | 3% | 33% | |
| 248 | 4% | 30% | |
| 249 | 3% | 26% | |
| 250 | 3% | 23% | |
| 251 | 2% | 20% | |
| 252 | 3% | 18% | |
| 253 | 2% | 15% | |
| 254 | 1.3% | 13% | |
| 255 | 1.4% | 12% | |
| 256 | 1.5% | 10% | |
| 257 | 2% | 9% | |
| 258 | 2% | 7% | |
| 259 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 260 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 261 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 262 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 263 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 264 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 265 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 267 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 268 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 269 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 273 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 275 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 113 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 115 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 116 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 117 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 118 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 119 | 4% | 94% | |
| 120 | 3% | 90% | |
| 121 | 1.1% | 87% | |
| 122 | 2% | 86% | |
| 123 | 2% | 84% | |
| 124 | 2% | 82% | |
| 125 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 126 | 2% | 79% | |
| 127 | 4% | 76% | |
| 128 | 2% | 72% | |
| 129 | 4% | 70% | |
| 130 | 5% | 67% | |
| 131 | 5% | 62% | |
| 132 | 4% | 58% | |
| 133 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 134 | 5% | 44% | |
| 135 | 8% | 39% | |
| 136 | 3% | 31% | |
| 137 | 4% | 28% | |
| 138 | 3% | 24% | |
| 139 | 5% | 21% | |
| 140 | 4% | 17% | |
| 141 | 2% | 13% | |
| 142 | 3% | 11% | |
| 143 | 2% | 9% | |
| 144 | 2% | 6% | |
| 145 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 146 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lewica Razem–Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej–Wiosna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem–Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej–Wiosna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 53 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 54 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 56 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 58 | 2% | 90% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 88% | |
| 60 | 2% | 87% | |
| 61 | 6% | 85% | |
| 62 | 6% | 79% | |
| 63 | 11% | 73% | |
| 64 | 11% | 62% | |
| 65 | 16% | 51% | Median |
| 66 | 4% | 35% | |
| 67 | 6% | 31% | |
| 68 | 6% | 24% | |
| 69 | 3% | 18% | |
| 70 | 3% | 15% | |
| 71 | 3% | 12% | |
| 72 | 2% | 10% | |
| 73 | 2% | 8% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 76 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 11 | 2% | 98% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 13 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 14 | 3% | 94% | |
| 15 | 3% | 90% | |
| 16 | 10% | 87% | Last Result |
| 17 | 6% | 77% | |
| 18 | 5% | 71% | |
| 19 | 5% | 66% | |
| 20 | 8% | 61% | |
| 21 | 14% | 53% | Median |
| 22 | 17% | 39% | |
| 23 | 6% | 22% | |
| 24 | 6% | 16% | |
| 25 | 3% | 10% | |
| 26 | 2% | 7% | |
| 27 | 3% | 5% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 244 | 94% | 233–256 | 230–259 | 227–262 | 221–269 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica Razem–Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej–Wiosna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 182 | 216 | 5% | 204–227 | 201–230 | 198–233 | 191–239 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica Razem–Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej–Wiosna | 166 | 197 | 0% | 185–207 | 182–210 | 179–213 | 173–218 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 182 | 153 | 0% | 140–161 | 136–164 | 132–167 | 127–173 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 166 | 133 | 0% | 120–142 | 118–144 | 114–147 | 111–151 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 216 | 0% | 100% | |
| 217 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 221 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 222 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 223 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 224 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 225 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 226 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 227 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 228 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 229 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 230 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 231 | 1.4% | 94% | Majority |
| 232 | 2% | 93% | |
| 233 | 2% | 91% | |
| 234 | 2% | 89% | |
| 235 | 2% | 88% | Last Result |
| 236 | 3% | 86% | |
| 237 | 3% | 83% | |
| 238 | 4% | 80% | |
| 239 | 4% | 76% | |
| 240 | 5% | 73% | |
| 241 | 9% | 67% | |
| 242 | 4% | 59% | |
| 243 | 4% | 55% | |
| 244 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 245 | 6% | 43% | |
| 246 | 4% | 37% | |
| 247 | 3% | 33% | |
| 248 | 4% | 30% | |
| 249 | 3% | 26% | |
| 250 | 3% | 23% | |
| 251 | 2% | 20% | |
| 252 | 3% | 18% | |
| 253 | 2% | 15% | |
| 254 | 1.3% | 13% | |
| 255 | 1.4% | 12% | |
| 256 | 1.5% | 10% | |
| 257 | 2% | 9% | |
| 258 | 2% | 7% | |
| 259 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 260 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 261 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 262 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 263 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 264 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 265 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 267 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 268 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 269 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 273 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 275 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica Razem–Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej–Wiosna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 182 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0% | 100% | |
| 184 | 0% | 100% | |
| 185 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 186 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 197 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 198 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 199 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 200 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 201 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 202 | 2% | 95% | |
| 203 | 2% | 93% | |
| 204 | 1.5% | 91% | |
| 205 | 1.4% | 90% | |
| 206 | 1.3% | 88% | |
| 207 | 2% | 87% | |
| 208 | 3% | 85% | |
| 209 | 2% | 82% | |
| 210 | 3% | 80% | |
| 211 | 3% | 77% | |
| 212 | 4% | 74% | |
| 213 | 3% | 70% | |
| 214 | 4% | 67% | |
| 215 | 6% | 63% | |
| 216 | 7% | 57% | |
| 217 | 4% | 50% | |
| 218 | 4% | 45% | |
| 219 | 9% | 41% | Median |
| 220 | 5% | 33% | |
| 221 | 4% | 27% | |
| 222 | 4% | 24% | |
| 223 | 3% | 20% | |
| 224 | 3% | 17% | |
| 225 | 2% | 14% | |
| 226 | 2% | 12% | |
| 227 | 2% | 11% | |
| 228 | 2% | 9% | |
| 229 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 230 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 231 | 1.0% | 5% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 233 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 234 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 235 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 236 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 237 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 238 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 239 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 242 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 243 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 244 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 245 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica Razem–Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej–Wiosna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 176 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 177 | 0.3% | 98.5% | |
| 178 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 179 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 181 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 182 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 183 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 184 | 2% | 93% | |
| 185 | 2% | 91% | |
| 186 | 3% | 89% | |
| 187 | 2% | 86% | |
| 188 | 2% | 84% | |
| 189 | 2% | 81% | |
| 190 | 2% | 79% | |
| 191 | 2% | 77% | |
| 192 | 4% | 75% | |
| 193 | 2% | 71% | |
| 194 | 6% | 69% | |
| 195 | 7% | 63% | |
| 196 | 5% | 56% | |
| 197 | 7% | 51% | |
| 198 | 7% | 44% | Median |
| 199 | 4% | 37% | |
| 200 | 5% | 34% | |
| 201 | 3% | 29% | |
| 202 | 3% | 26% | |
| 203 | 3% | 23% | |
| 204 | 3% | 20% | |
| 205 | 3% | 17% | |
| 206 | 3% | 14% | |
| 207 | 2% | 11% | |
| 208 | 2% | 9% | |
| 209 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 210 | 2% | 6% | |
| 211 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 212 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 213 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 214 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 215 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 216 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 217 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 218 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 131 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 132 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 133 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 134 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 135 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 136 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 137 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 138 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 139 | 2% | 92% | |
| 140 | 2% | 90% | |
| 141 | 2% | 89% | |
| 142 | 2% | 86% | |
| 143 | 2% | 84% | |
| 144 | 2% | 82% | |
| 145 | 2% | 80% | |
| 146 | 2% | 78% | |
| 147 | 3% | 76% | |
| 148 | 3% | 73% | |
| 149 | 4% | 70% | |
| 150 | 3% | 67% | |
| 151 | 6% | 63% | |
| 152 | 4% | 57% | |
| 153 | 5% | 53% | |
| 154 | 8% | 48% | Median |
| 155 | 7% | 41% | |
| 156 | 7% | 33% | |
| 157 | 6% | 26% | |
| 158 | 3% | 20% | |
| 159 | 3% | 17% | |
| 160 | 3% | 14% | |
| 161 | 2% | 11% | |
| 162 | 2% | 9% | |
| 163 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 164 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 165 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 166 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 167 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Koalicja Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 113 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 115 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 116 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 117 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 118 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 119 | 4% | 94% | |
| 120 | 3% | 90% | |
| 121 | 1.1% | 87% | |
| 122 | 2% | 86% | |
| 123 | 2% | 84% | |
| 124 | 2% | 82% | |
| 125 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 126 | 2% | 79% | |
| 127 | 4% | 76% | |
| 128 | 2% | 72% | |
| 129 | 4% | 70% | |
| 130 | 5% | 67% | |
| 131 | 5% | 62% | |
| 132 | 4% | 58% | |
| 133 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 134 | 5% | 44% | |
| 135 | 8% | 39% | |
| 136 | 3% | 31% | |
| 137 | 4% | 28% | |
| 138 | 3% | 24% | |
| 139 | 5% | 21% | |
| 140 | 4% | 17% | |
| 141 | 2% | 13% | |
| 142 | 3% | 11% | |
| 143 | 2% | 9% | |
| 144 | 2% | 6% | |
| 145 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 146 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Social Changes
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 2–7 August 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1026
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.96%