Opinion Poll by IMAS, 1–31 January 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 45.5% 49.0% 47.0–51.0% 46.4–51.6% 45.9–52.1% 44.9–53.1%
Partidul Național Liberal 20.0% 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.6–24.2%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 8.9% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților 5.6% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 154 183 174–203 172–206 170–208 167–212
Partidul Național Liberal 69 78 71–87 69–90 68–92 65–96
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 30 30 0–35 0–36 0–37 0–39
Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților 20 26 22–30 21–32 20–33 0–35

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100% Last Result
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 100%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.9% Majority
166 0.2% 99.8%  
167 0.3% 99.6%  
168 0.5% 99.3%  
169 0.7% 98.8%  
170 0.9% 98%  
171 1.3% 97%  
172 2% 96%  
173 2% 94%  
174 3% 92%  
175 3% 89%  
176 4% 85%  
177 4% 81%  
178 5% 77%  
179 5% 72%  
180 5% 67%  
181 5% 62%  
182 4% 57%  
183 4% 53% Median
184 3% 49%  
185 3% 45%  
186 2% 42%  
187 2% 40%  
188 1.4% 38%  
189 1.2% 37%  
190 1.0% 36%  
191 1.1% 35%  
192 1.2% 34%  
193 1.3% 33%  
194 1.4% 31%  
195 2% 30%  
196 2% 28%  
197 2% 26%  
198 3% 24%  
199 2% 21%  
200 2% 19%  
201 2% 16%  
202 2% 14%  
203 2% 11%  
204 2% 9%  
205 2% 7%  
206 1.3% 5%  
207 1.0% 4%  
208 0.9% 3%  
209 0.8% 2%  
210 0.5% 1.4%  
211 0.3% 0.9%  
212 0.2% 0.6%  
213 0.1% 0.5%  
214 0.1% 0.3%  
215 0.1% 0.2%  
216 0% 0.2%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0.1%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.3% 99.6%  
66 0.6% 99.3%  
67 0.9% 98.7%  
68 1.4% 98%  
69 2% 96% Last Result
70 3% 94%  
71 3% 92%  
72 4% 88%  
73 5% 84%  
74 6% 79%  
75 6% 73%  
76 6% 67%  
77 6% 61%  
78 6% 54% Median
79 6% 48%  
80 5% 42%  
81 5% 37%  
82 5% 32%  
83 4% 27%  
84 4% 23%  
85 3% 19%  
86 3% 16%  
87 3% 13%  
88 2% 10%  
89 2% 8%  
90 2% 6%  
91 1.2% 4%  
92 0.9% 3%  
93 0.7% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.4%  
95 0.3% 0.9%  
96 0.2% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100%  
1 0% 65%  
2 0% 65%  
3 0% 65%  
4 0% 65%  
5 0% 65%  
6 0% 65%  
7 0% 65%  
8 0% 65%  
9 0% 65%  
10 0% 65%  
11 0% 65%  
12 0% 65%  
13 0% 65%  
14 0% 65%  
15 0% 65%  
16 0% 65%  
17 0% 65%  
18 0% 65%  
19 0% 65%  
20 0% 65%  
21 0% 65%  
22 0% 65%  
23 0% 65%  
24 0% 65%  
25 0% 65%  
26 0% 65%  
27 0% 65%  
28 0.1% 65%  
29 5% 65%  
30 12% 60% Last Result, Median
31 12% 48%  
32 11% 36%  
33 9% 26%  
34 6% 17%  
35 4% 11%  
36 3% 6%  
37 2% 4%  
38 0.9% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.9%  
40 0.2% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0% 99.4%  
4 0% 99.4%  
5 0% 99.4%  
6 0% 99.4%  
7 0% 99.4%  
8 0% 99.4%  
9 0% 99.4%  
10 0% 99.4%  
11 0% 99.4%  
12 0% 99.4%  
13 0% 99.4%  
14 0% 99.4%  
15 0% 99.4%  
16 0% 99.4%  
17 0% 99.4%  
18 0.3% 99.4%  
19 1.2% 99.2%  
20 2% 98% Last Result
21 5% 96%  
22 7% 91%  
23 9% 84%  
24 12% 75%  
25 11% 63%  
26 12% 52% Median
27 11% 39%  
28 8% 29%  
29 8% 21%  
30 4% 13%  
31 4% 9%  
32 2% 5%  
33 1.2% 3%  
34 0.9% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.8%  
36 0.3% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților 174 208 100% 199–230 197–233 195–235 192–238
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților 119 129 0% 109–138 106–140 104–142 100–145
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 99 104 0% 82–113 79–115 77–117 74–120
Partidul Național Liberal 69 78 0% 71–87 69–90 68–92 65–96

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100% Last Result
175 0% 100%  
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 100%  
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 100%  
183 0% 100%  
184 0% 100%  
185 0% 100%  
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 100%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0.1% 99.9%  
190 0.1% 99.8%  
191 0.2% 99.7%  
192 0.3% 99.5%  
193 0.4% 99.3%  
194 0.7% 98.9%  
195 0.9% 98%  
196 1.3% 97%  
197 2% 96%  
198 2% 94%  
199 3% 92%  
200 4% 89%  
201 4% 85%  
202 5% 81%  
203 5% 76%  
204 6% 71%  
205 5% 65%  
206 5% 60%  
207 5% 55%  
208 4% 51%  
209 3% 47% Median
210 2% 43%  
211 2% 41%  
212 1.4% 39%  
213 1.0% 37%  
214 0.7% 36%  
215 0.5% 36%  
216 0.5% 35%  
217 0.4% 35%  
218 0.5% 34%  
219 0.7% 34%  
220 0.9% 33%  
221 1.2% 32%  
222 2% 31%  
223 2% 30%  
224 2% 28%  
225 2% 26%  
226 3% 23%  
227 3% 21%  
228 3% 18%  
229 3% 15%  
230 3% 12%  
231 2% 10%  
232 2% 8%  
233 2% 6%  
234 1.3% 4%  
235 1.0% 3%  
236 0.7% 2%  
237 0.5% 1.3%  
238 0.3% 0.8%  
239 0.2% 0.5%  
240 0.1% 0.3%  
241 0.1% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.1% 99.7%  
100 0.2% 99.5%  
101 0.3% 99.4%  
102 0.5% 99.1%  
103 0.8% 98.6%  
104 0.9% 98%  
105 1.0% 97%  
106 1.3% 96%  
107 2% 95%  
108 2% 93%  
109 2% 91%  
110 2% 89%  
111 2% 86%  
112 2% 84%  
113 2% 81%  
114 3% 79%  
115 2% 76%  
116 2% 74%  
117 2% 72%  
118 1.4% 70%  
119 1.3% 69% Last Result
120 1.2% 67%  
121 1.1% 66%  
122 1.0% 65%  
123 1.2% 64%  
124 1.4% 63%  
125 2% 62%  
126 2% 60%  
127 3% 58%  
128 3% 55%  
129 4% 51%  
130 4% 47%  
131 5% 43%  
132 5% 38%  
133 5% 33%  
134 5% 28% Median
135 4% 23%  
136 4% 19%  
137 3% 15%  
138 3% 11%  
139 2% 8%  
140 2% 6%  
141 1.3% 4%  
142 0.9% 3%  
143 0.7% 2%  
144 0.5% 1.2%  
145 0.3% 0.7%  
146 0.2% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 0.3% 99.5%  
75 0.5% 99.2%  
76 0.7% 98.7%  
77 1.0% 98%  
78 1.3% 97%  
79 2% 96%  
80 2% 94%  
81 2% 92%  
82 3% 90%  
83 3% 88%  
84 3% 85%  
85 3% 82%  
86 3% 79%  
87 2% 77%  
88 2% 74%  
89 2% 72%  
90 2% 70%  
91 1.2% 69%  
92 0.9% 68%  
93 0.7% 67%  
94 0.5% 66%  
95 0.4% 66%  
96 0.5% 65%  
97 0.5% 65%  
98 0.7% 64%  
99 1.0% 64% Last Result
100 1.4% 63%  
101 2% 61%  
102 2% 59%  
103 3% 57%  
104 4% 53%  
105 5% 49%  
106 5% 45%  
107 5% 40%  
108 6% 35% Median
109 5% 29%  
110 5% 24%  
111 4% 19%  
112 4% 15%  
113 3% 11%  
114 2% 8%  
115 2% 6%  
116 1.3% 4%  
117 0.9% 3%  
118 0.7% 2%  
119 0.4% 1.1%  
120 0.3% 0.7%  
121 0.2% 0.5%  
122 0.1% 0.3%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.3% 99.6%  
66 0.6% 99.3%  
67 0.9% 98.7%  
68 1.4% 98%  
69 2% 96% Last Result
70 3% 94%  
71 3% 92%  
72 4% 88%  
73 5% 84%  
74 6% 79%  
75 6% 73%  
76 6% 67%  
77 6% 61%  
78 6% 54% Median
79 6% 48%  
80 5% 42%  
81 5% 37%  
82 5% 32%  
83 4% 27%  
84 4% 23%  
85 3% 19%  
86 3% 16%  
87 3% 13%  
88 2% 10%  
89 2% 8%  
90 2% 6%  
91 1.2% 4%  
92 0.9% 3%  
93 0.7% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.4%  
95 0.3% 0.9%  
96 0.2% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations