Partidul Social Democrat

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 45.5% (General Election of 21 December 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 27.9% 22.2–34.2% 21.4–35.5% 20.8–36.3% 19.8–37.7%
2–3 December 2020 IRES 35.0% 33.1–36.9% 32.6–37.4% 32.1–37.9% 31.3–38.8%
28–29 November 2020 Sociopol 28.0% 26.2–29.8% 25.7–30.3% 25.3–30.8% 24.5–31.7%
22–28 November 2020 IRSOP 30.0% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.4% 27.2–32.9% 26.4–33.8%
6–27 November 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 23.6% 21.9–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.3% 20.3–27.2%
20–25 November 2020 Verifield 22.0% 20.5–23.7% 20.0–24.1% 19.6–24.6% 18.9–25.4%
11–18 November 2020 ADS
PER		 27.2% 25.6–28.8% 25.2–29.3% 24.8–29.7% 24.1–30.5%
1–10 November 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 29.0% 27.2–30.8% 26.7–31.3% 26.3–31.8% 25.5–32.6%
25–30 October 2020 BCS
PMP		 28.6% 27.1–30.2% 26.7–30.6% 26.4–31.0% 25.7–31.7%
7–28 October 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 21.7% 20.1–23.4% 19.6–23.9% 19.3–24.3% 18.5–25.2%
8–11 October 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 31.0% 29.0–33.2% 28.4–33.8% 27.9–34.3% 26.9–35.3%
7–23 September 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 19.6% 18.1–21.3% 17.6–21.8% 17.3–22.2% 16.6–23.0%
6–26 August 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 20.8% 19.2–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.4–23.4% 17.7–24.2%
29 July–5 August 2020 CURS 28.0% 26.3–29.8% 25.8–30.3% 25.4–30.7% 24.6–31.6%
10–29 July 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 23.4% 21.7–25.1% 21.2–25.7% 20.9–26.1% 20.1–26.9%
19–30 June 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 28.0% 26.3–29.8% 25.8–30.3% 25.4–30.7% 24.6–31.6%
5–27 June 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 19.7% 18.2–21.4% 17.7–21.9% 17.4–22.3% 16.6–23.1%
8–27 May 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 23.1% 21.4–24.8% 21.0–25.3% 20.6–25.8% 19.8–26.6%
15–26 May 2020 Avangarde 29.0% 27.2–30.9% 26.7–31.4% 26.3–31.9% 25.4–32.8%
15–20 May 2020 INSCOP 21.8% 20.3–23.5% 19.9–23.9% 19.5–24.3% 18.8–25.1%
1–7 May 2020 BCS 20.3% 19.1–21.7% 18.7–22.1% 18.4–22.4% 17.8–23.1%
6–24 April 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 24.8% 23.1–26.6% 22.6–27.1% 22.2–27.5% 21.4–28.4%
11–15 April 2020 BCS 23.6% 21.9–25.4% 21.5–25.9% 21.1–26.3% 20.3–27.2%
6–12 April 2020 Avangarde
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 28.9% 27.0–30.8% 26.5–31.4% 26.0–31.9% 25.1–32.8%
5–26 March 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 24.0% 22.3–25.7% 21.8–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
11–28 February 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 25.8% 24.1–27.7% 23.6–28.2% 23.2–28.6% 22.4–29.5%
13–31 January 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 20.6% 19.0–22.3% 18.6–22.8% 18.2–23.2% 17.5–24.0%
20–30 January 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 26.8% 25.2–28.4% 24.8–28.9% 24.4–29.3% 23.6–30.1%
13–18 December 2019 Sociopol 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
4–18 December 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 18.3% 16.8–19.9% 16.4–20.4% 16.0–20.8% 15.3–21.6%
12–17 December 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 31.0% 29.2–32.9% 28.7–33.4% 28.3–33.9% 27.5–34.8%
11–27 November 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 21.3% 19.7–23.0% 19.2–23.5% 18.9–23.9% 18.1–24.8%
25 October–3 November 2019 USR 24.0% 22.5–25.6% 22.1–26.1% 21.7–26.5% 21.0–27.3%
8–28 October 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 21.2% 19.6–22.9% 19.2–23.4% 18.8–23.8% 18.0–24.7%
15–23 October 2019 USR 22.3% 20.8–23.9% 20.4–24.3% 20.0–24.7% 19.4–25.5%
12–19 October 2019 BCS 21.1% 19.6–22.8% 19.2–23.2% 18.8–23.6% 18.1–24.4%
5–28 September 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 20.5% 18.9–22.2% 18.5–22.7% 18.1–23.1% 17.4–23.9%
3–24 September 2019 USR 22.7% 21.3–24.1% 20.9–24.5% 20.6–24.9% 20.0–25.6%
16–20 September 2019 Socio-Data 25.0% 23.4–26.8% 22.9–27.3% 22.5–27.7% 21.8–28.6%
9–13 September 2019 Socio-Data 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.7% 22.6–29.6%
2–6 September 2019 Socio-Data 23.3% 21.7–25.0% 21.2–25.5% 20.8–25.9% 20.1–26.7%
19–31 August 2019 Sociopol 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
26–30 August 2019 Verifield 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
26–30 August 2019 Socio-Data 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 20.0–24.1% 19.6–24.6% 18.9–25.4%
5–28 August 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 17.9% 16.4–19.6% 16.0–20.0% 15.7–20.4% 15.0–21.2%
19 July–5 August 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 24.0% 22.7–25.4% 22.3–25.8% 22.0–26.2% 21.3–26.8%
15 July–2 August 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 19.4% 17.9–21.1% 17.5–21.6% 17.1–22.0% 16.4–22.8%
7–23 July 2019 BCS 23.4% 21.8–25.1% 21.4–25.6% 21.0–26.0% 20.3–26.8%
28 June–8 July 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 26.0% 24.3–27.7% 23.8–28.2% 23.4–28.7% 22.6–29.6%
7–26 June 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 18.9% 17.4–20.6% 17.0–21.0% 16.6–21.4% 15.9–22.3%
2–20 May 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 21.4% 19.8–23.1% 19.3–23.6% 19.0–24.0% 18.2–24.9%
1–21 February 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 23.4% 21.7–25.1% 21.2–25.7% 20.9–26.1% 20.1–26.9%
21 January–6 February 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 31.0% 29.2–32.9% 28.7–33.4% 28.3–33.9% 27.5–34.8%
21 January–5 February 2019 INSCOP
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung		 27.8% 26.1–29.6% 25.6–30.1% 25.2–30.5% 24.4–31.4%
28 January–4 February 2019 Sociopol 33.0% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.1–36.0% 29.3–36.9%
1–31 January 2019 PNL 30.2% 29.8–30.6% 29.7–30.7% 29.6–30.8% 29.5–30.9%
11–30 January 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 25.2% 23.5–27.0% 23.0–27.6% 22.6–28.0% 21.8–28.9%
4–20 December 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 25.2% 23.5–27.1% 23.1–27.6% 22.7–28.0% 21.9–28.9%
24 November–9 December 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 33.0% 31.2–34.9% 30.7–35.4% 30.2–35.9% 29.4–36.8%
1–30 November 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 24.9% 23.2–26.7% 22.7–27.2% 22.3–27.6% 21.5–28.5%
26 October–12 November 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 38.0% 36.1–39.9% 35.5–40.4% 35.1–40.9% 34.2–41.9%
1–31 October 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 27.6% 25.8–29.5% 25.3–30.0% 24.9–30.5% 24.1–31.4%
3–4 October 2018 Sociopol 38.0% 36.0–40.2% 35.4–40.8% 34.9–41.3% 33.9–42.3%
20 September–1 October 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 37.0% 35.1–38.9% 34.6–39.5% 34.2–40.0% 33.3–40.9%
1–30 September 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 28.1% 26.3–30.0% 25.8–30.5% 25.4–31.0% 24.6–31.9%
22–27 September 2018 Sociopol 36.0% 34.0–37.9% 33.5–38.5% 33.0–39.0% 32.1–39.9%
7–20 August 2018 Sociopol 35.0% 33.1–37.0% 32.6–37.6% 32.1–38.0% 31.2–39.0%
23 June–1 July 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 37.4% 35.5–39.3% 35.0–39.9% 34.5–40.3% 33.7–41.3%
1–30 June 2018 IMAS 28.4% 26.8–30.1% 26.3–30.6% 25.9–31.0% 25.2–31.9%
22–26 June 2018 Sociopol
România TV		 41.0% 38.9–43.1% 38.4–43.7% 37.9–44.2% 36.9–45.2%
28 May–8 June 2018 Sociopol
România TV		 40.0% 38.0–42.0% 37.5–42.6% 37.0–43.1% 36.1–44.0%
27 April–8 May 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 39.0% 37.1–40.9% 36.6–41.5% 36.1–42.0% 35.2–42.9%
1–31 March 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 39.0% 37.1–40.9% 36.6–41.5% 36.1–42.0% 35.2–42.9%
27 February–5 March 2018 Sociopol
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 34.0% 32.1–36.0% 31.6–36.5% 31.1–37.0% 30.2–38.0%
1–28 February 2018 IMAS 28.6% 26.8–30.5% 26.3–31.0% 25.9–31.5% 25.1–32.4%
3–10 January 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 40.4% 38.5–42.3% 37.9–42.9% 37.4–43.3% 36.5–44.3%
24 November–7 December 2017 Avangarde 46.0% 43.6–48.4% 42.9–49.1% 42.3–49.7% 41.2–50.9%
1–30 November 2017 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 43.0% 41.1–45.0% 40.5–45.5% 40.1–46.0% 39.2–47.0%
22 September–5 October 2017 Sociopol 61.1% 58.9–63.1% 58.3–63.7% 57.8–64.2% 56.7–65.2%
1–30 September 2017 IMAS 38.8% 36.9–40.8% 36.3–41.4% 35.8–41.9% 34.9–42.8%
28 August–14 September 2017 Sociopol 51.0% 49.0–53.1% 48.4–53.6% 48.0–54.1% 47.0–55.1%
11–23 August 2017 Avangarde 46.1% 43.7–48.5% 43.0–49.2% 42.4–49.7% 41.3–50.9%
15–22 June 2017 Avangarde 46.0% 43.7–48.3% 43.0–48.9% 42.5–49.5% 41.4–50.6%
1–30 April 2017 IMAS 40.6% 38.6–42.6% 38.1–43.2% 37.6–43.7% 36.7–44.7%
6–14 March 2017 Sociopol 47.0% 45.0–49.0% 44.4–49.6% 43.9–50.1% 42.9–51.0%
1–31 January 2017 IMAS 49.0% 47.0–51.0% 46.4–51.6% 45.9–52.1% 44.9–53.1%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partidul Social Democrat.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17.5–18.5% 0% 100%  
18.5–19.5% 0.3% 100%  
19.5–20.5% 1.4% 99.7%  
20.5–21.5% 4% 98%  
21.5–22.5% 7% 94%  
22.5–23.5% 7% 87%  
23.5–24.5% 6% 80%  
24.5–25.5% 4% 75%  
25.5–26.5% 6% 71%  
26.5–27.5% 10% 65%  
27.5–28.5% 12% 55% Median
28.5–29.5% 12% 42%  
29.5–30.5% 9% 30%  
30.5–31.5% 5% 22%  
31.5–32.5% 3% 17%  
32.5–33.5% 2% 14%  
33.5–34.5% 3% 12%  
34.5–35.5% 4% 9%  
35.5–36.5% 3% 5%  
36.5–37.5% 1.5% 2%  
37.5–38.5% 0.5% 0.6%  
38.5–39.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
39.5–40.5% 0% 0%  
40.5–41.5% 0% 0%  
41.5–42.5% 0% 0%  
42.5–43.5% 0% 0%  
43.5–44.5% 0% 0%  
44.5–45.5% 0% 0% Last Result

Seats

Last result: 154 seats (General Election of 21 December 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 97 79–116 76–120 73–122 70–126
2–3 December 2020 IRES 117 111–123 109–125 108–127 105–130
28–29 November 2020 Sociopol 99 92–106 90–107 89–109 86–113
22–28 November 2020 IRSOP 102 96–108 94–110 92–112 90–115
6–27 November 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 83 76–89 75–91 73–93 70–96
20–25 November 2020 Verifield 79 72–85 71–87 69–89 66–92
11–18 November 2020 ADS
PER		 107 99–116 96–118 95–120 91–123
1–10 November 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 92 87–98 85–100 84–101 81–104
25–30 October 2020 BCS
PMP		 95 89–101 88–103 86–105 84–108
7–28 October 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 73 67–79 65–81 64–82 61–85
8–11 October 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 102 95–110 93–112 92–114 89–118
7–23 September 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 70 64–76 62–78 61–79 58–83
6–26 August 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 73 67–78 65–80 64–81 61–84
29 July–5 August 2020 CURS 98 90–107 88–109 86–111 83–114
10–29 July 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 81 75–87 74–89 72–91 70–94
19–30 June 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 92 86–99 84–101 83–103 79–107
5–27 June 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 74 68–80 66–82 65–84 61–87
8–27 May 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 80 74–86 72–88 70–90 68–93
15–26 May 2020 Avangarde 103 96–109 94–111 92–113 89–118
15–20 May 2020 INSCOP 79 72–85 71–86 69–87 67–91
1–7 May 2020 BCS 76 71–82 69–84 68–85 65–89
6–24 April 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 87 81–94 79–96 77–97 74–100
11–15 April 2020 BCS 76 71–82 69–84 68–85 66–88
6–12 April 2020 Avangarde
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 99 92–107 90–110 88–112 84–115
5–26 March 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 83 77–90 76–92 74–94 71–98
11–28 February 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 93 85–101 84–103 82–105 79–108
13–31 January 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 73 67–78 65–80 64–81 61–84
20–30 January 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 92 86–98 84–100 82–101 79–105
13–18 December 2019 Sociopol 80 73–87 72–89 70–90 67–93
4–18 December 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 64 59–70 57–71 56–73 54–76
12–17 December 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 104 97–113 95–115 93–117 90–121
11–27 November 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 75 69–80 67–82 66–84 63–87
25 October–3 November 2019 USR 84 77–90 75–91 74–94 71–97
8–28 October 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 75 69–81 67–82 66–84 63–87
15–23 October 2019 USR 85 79–91 77–93 76–95 73–98
12–19 October 2019 BCS 81 73–88 71–90 70–92 67–96
5–28 September 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 67 62–73 60–74 59–76 57–78
3–24 September 2019 USR 87 80–94 78–96 77–98 74–101
16–20 September 2019 Socio-Data 84 78–92 76–94 75–95 72–98
9–13 September 2019 Socio-Data 88 81–95 79–97 78–99 75–103
2–6 September 2019 Socio-Data 76 70–84 69–86 68–87 65–90
19–31 August 2019 Sociopol 69 62–76 61–78 59–80 56–83
26–30 August 2019 Verifield 83 77–90 76–92 74–93 72–97
26–30 August 2019 Socio-Data 72 67–79 65–81 64–82 61–86
5–28 August 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 61 55–66 54–67 53–69 50–71
19 July–5 August 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 78 73–83 71–84 70–86 68–88
15 July–2 August 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 65 60–71 59–72 57–74 55–76
7–23 July 2019 BCS 86 79–93 77–95 76–97 72–100
28 June–8 July 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 88 81–95 79–96 77–99 75–102
7–26 June 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 64 58–69 57–71 56–72 53–75
2–20 May 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 68 63–75 62–76 61–78 58–80
1–21 February 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 77 72–83 70–85 69–86 66–89
21 January–6 February 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 107 100–115 98–117 96–118 93–122
21 January–5 February 2019 INSCOP
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung		 93 87–99 85–101 83–103 80–106
28 January–4 February 2019 Sociopol 113 107–120 105–122 104–123 101–126
1–31 January 2019 PNL 100 99–101 99–102 98–102 98–103
11–30 January 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 86 79–92 77–94 75–95 73–97
4–20 December 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 86 81–93 79–95 77–96 75–100
24 November–9 December 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 112 105–120 103–122 102–124 99–128
1–30 November 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 88 82–94 80–95 78–97 76–100
26 October–12 November 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 129 122–135 121–137 119–139 116–142
1–31 October 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 98 91–105 89–106 88–108 85–111
3–4 October 2018 Sociopol 132 123–144 121–147 120–149 117–152
20 September–1 October 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 123 115–130 113–133 112–136 108–139
1–30 September 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 94 88–102 87–104 85–106 83–109
22–27 September 2018 Sociopol 125 119–132 117–134 115–135 112–139
7–20 August 2018 Sociopol 123 116–129 114–131 113–133 110–136
23 June–1 July 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 129 121–138 119–141 117–142 113–146
1–30 June 2018 IMAS 98 92–104 91–105 90–107 87–110
22–26 June 2018 Sociopol
România TV		 136 129–145 127–147 124–149 121–152
28 May–8 June 2018 Sociopol
România TV		 144 137–150 135–153 134–155 130–158
27 April–8 May 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 138 128–148 125–153 123–156 120–163
1–31 March 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 149 138–160 135–163 131–165 126–168
27 February–5 March 2018 Sociopol
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 118 109–127 107–130 105–132 101–136
1–28 February 2018 IMAS 103 95–110 93–112 91–113 88–117
3–10 January 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 152 142–161 138–163 135–165 130–169
24 November–7 December 2017 Avangarde 164 155–172 152–175 149–177 145–181
1–30 November 2017 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 148 141–155 140–158 138–160 135–165
22 September–5 October 2017 Sociopol 216 207–223 204–224 201–226 196–229
1–30 September 2017 IMAS 146 137–153 134–155 131–157 126–160
28 August–14 September 2017 Sociopol 181 170–189 165–193 162–197 157–202
11–23 August 2017 Avangarde 172 161–180 158–183 155–185 149–190
15–22 June 2017 Avangarde 150 140–164 137–169 135–173 132–180
1–30 April 2017 IMAS 157 147–174 145–177 143–179 140–183
6–14 March 2017 Sociopol 162 155–170 153–173 151–176 148–181
1–31 January 2017 IMAS 183 174–203 172–206 170–208 167–212

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partidul Social Democrat.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.2% 99.5%  
71 0.5% 99.3%  
72 0.7% 98.8%  
73 0.7% 98%  
74 1.0% 97%  
75 1.4% 96%  
76 1.3% 95%  
77 2% 94%  
78 2% 92%  
79 2% 90%  
80 2% 88%  
81 2% 86%  
82 2% 84%  
83 2% 82%  
84 2% 80%  
85 2% 78%  
86 2% 76%  
87 2% 74%  
88 2% 72%  
89 2% 71%  
90 2% 69%  
91 2% 66%  
92 2% 64%  
93 2% 62%  
94 2% 60%  
95 3% 58%  
96 3% 55%  
97 3% 52% Median
98 3% 49%  
99 3% 47%  
100 3% 44%  
101 3% 41%  
102 3% 38%  
103 3% 35%  
104 2% 32%  
105 2% 30%  
106 2% 28%  
107 2% 25%  
108 2% 23%  
109 2% 22%  
110 1.5% 20%  
111 2% 18%  
112 1.4% 17%  
113 2% 15%  
114 2% 14%  
115 1.2% 12%  
116 2% 11%  
117 2% 9%  
118 1.2% 8%  
119 1.3% 6%  
120 1.1% 5%  
121 1.0% 4%  
122 0.9% 3%  
123 0.7% 2%  
124 0.4% 1.4%  
125 0.4% 1.0%  
126 0.3% 0.7%  
127 0.2% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0% Last Result