Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 8.9% (General Election of 21 December 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 16.1% 12.4–18.4% 11.9–19.0% 11.5–19.5% 10.8–20.4%
2–3 December 2020 IRES 16.0% 14.7–17.5% 14.3–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.3–19.1%
28–29 November 2020 Sociopol 13.0% 11.7–14.4% 11.4–14.8% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–15.9%
22–28 November 2020 IRSOP 17.0% 15.6–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.2–20.3%
6–27 November 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.8–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
20–25 November 2020 Verifield 17.0% 15.6–18.5% 15.2–19.0% 14.9–19.3% 14.3–20.1%
11–18 November 2020 ADS
PER		 12.5% 11.4–13.8% 11.1–14.1% 10.8–14.4% 10.3–15.1%
1–10 November 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 16.0% 14.7–17.5% 14.3–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.3–19.1%
25–30 October 2020 BCS
PMP		 17.6% 16.4–18.9% 16.0–19.3% 15.7–19.6% 15.2–20.3%
7–28 October 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 20.3% 18.7–22.0% 18.3–22.5% 17.9–22.9% 17.2–23.7%
8–11 October 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 12.0% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.1% 9.9–14.4% 9.3–15.2%
7–23 September 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 17.0% 15.6–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.2–20.3%
6–26 August 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 18.3% 16.8–20.0% 16.4–20.4% 16.0–20.8% 15.4–21.6%
29 July–5 August 2020 CURS 14.0% 12.7–15.4% 12.4–15.8% 12.1–16.2% 11.5–16.9%
10–29 July 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 17.2% 15.8–18.8% 15.4–19.3% 15.0–19.7% 14.3–20.5%
19–30 June 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 13.9–18.3% 13.3–19.0%
5–27 June 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 19.4% 17.9–21.1% 17.5–21.6% 17.1–22.0% 16.4–22.8%
8–27 May 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 16.8% 15.4–18.4% 15.0–18.9% 14.6–19.3% 14.0–20.1%
15–26 May 2020 Avangarde 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
15–20 May 2020 INSCOP 20.2% 18.8–21.8% 18.3–22.3% 18.0–22.7% 17.3–23.5%
1–7 May 2020 BCS 24.7% 23.3–26.1% 22.9–26.5% 22.6–26.9% 21.9–27.6%
6–24 April 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 15.9% 14.5–17.5% 14.1–18.0% 13.8–18.3% 13.2–19.1%
11–15 April 2020 BCS 20.6% 19.1–22.3% 18.6–22.8% 18.2–23.3% 17.5–24.1%
6–12 April 2020 Avangarde
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 15.4% 14.0–17.0% 13.6–17.5% 13.2–17.9% 12.5–18.7%
5–26 March 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
11–28 February 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 13.5% 12.2–14.9% 11.8–15.3% 11.5–15.7% 10.9–16.4%
13–31 January 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 15.6% 14.2–17.2% 13.9–17.6% 13.5–18.0% 12.9–18.8%
20–30 January 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 14.4% 13.2–15.8% 12.8–16.1% 12.5–16.5% 12.0–17.2%
13–18 December 2019 Sociopol 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
4–18 December 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 14.8% 13.5–16.4% 13.1–16.8% 12.8–17.2% 12.1–17.9%
12–17 December 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 14.0% 12.7–15.4% 12.3–15.8% 12.0–16.2% 11.4–16.9%
11–27 November 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 18.2% 16.7–19.8% 16.3–20.3% 15.9–20.7% 15.3–21.5%
25 October–3 November 2019 USR 20.0% 18.6–21.5% 18.2–22.0% 17.8–22.3% 17.2–23.1%
8–28 October 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 20.9% 19.3–22.6% 18.9–23.1% 18.5–23.5% 17.8–24.4%
15–23 October 2019 USR 21.4% 19.9–23.0% 19.5–23.4% 19.2–23.8% 18.5–24.5%
12–19 October 2019 BCS 20.1% 18.6–21.7% 18.2–22.1% 17.8–22.5% 17.1–23.3%
5–28 September 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 24.3% 22.6–26.0% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.0% 20.9–27.9%
3–24 September 2019 USR 21.6% 20.3–23.0% 19.9–23.4% 19.6–23.8% 19.0–24.4%
16–20 September 2019 Socio-Data 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 20.0–24.1% 19.6–24.6% 18.9–25.4%
9–13 September 2019 Socio-Data 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 20.0–24.1% 19.6–24.6% 18.9–25.4%
2–6 September 2019 Socio-Data 20.4% 18.9–22.0% 18.4–22.5% 18.1–22.9% 17.4–23.7%
19–31 August 2019 Sociopol 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.8–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
26–30 August 2019 Verifield 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
26–30 August 2019 Socio-Data 24.0% 22.4–25.8% 21.9–26.2% 21.6–26.7% 20.8–27.5%
5–28 August 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 25.3% 23.6–27.2% 23.2–27.7% 22.8–28.1% 22.0–29.0%
19 July–5 August 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 20.0% 18.8–21.3% 18.4–21.7% 18.1–22.0% 17.5–22.7%
15 July–2 August 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 27.4% 25.7–29.3% 25.2–29.8% 24.8–30.3% 23.9–31.2%
7–23 July 2019 BCS 21.4% 19.9–23.0% 19.4–23.5% 19.1–23.9% 18.4–24.7%
28 June–8 July 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 22.0% 20.5–23.7% 20.0–24.2% 19.6–24.6% 18.9–25.4%
7–26 June 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 25.2% 23.5–27.1% 23.1–27.6% 22.7–28.0% 21.9–28.9%
2–20 May 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.6–24.1%
1–21 February 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 18.5% 17.0–20.2% 16.6–20.6% 16.2–21.0% 15.5–21.8%
21 January–6 February 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 13.0% 11.8–14.4% 11.4–14.8% 11.1–15.2% 10.6–15.9%
21 January–5 February 2019 INSCOP
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung		 17.0% 15.6–18.6% 15.2–19.0% 14.9–19.4% 14.3–20.2%
28 January–4 February 2019 Sociopol 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9% 12.9–17.3% 12.3–18.1%
1–31 January 2019 PNL 15.2% 14.9–15.5% 14.8–15.6% 14.8–15.7% 14.6–15.8%
11–30 January 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 19.9% 18.3–21.6% 17.9–22.0% 17.5–22.5% 16.8–23.3%
4–20 December 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 19.6% 18.1–21.3% 17.6–21.8% 17.3–22.2% 16.6–23.0%
24 November–9 December 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.2–14.1% 9.6–14.8%
1–30 November 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 23.0% 21.3–24.7% 20.9–25.2% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.5%
26 October–12 November 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 15.0% 13.7–16.5% 13.3–16.9% 13.0–17.3% 12.4–18.0%
1–31 October 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 22.7% 21.1–24.5% 20.6–25.0% 20.2–25.4% 19.4–26.3%
3–4 October 2018 Sociopol 11.0% 9.7–12.5% 9.4–12.9% 9.1–13.3% 8.5–14.0%
20 September–1 October 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 12.9% 11.7–14.3% 11.3–14.7% 11.1–15.1% 10.5–15.8%
1–30 September 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 19.6% 18.1–21.3% 17.6–21.8% 17.3–22.2% 16.5–23.0%
22–27 September 2018 Sociopol 12.0% 10.7–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
7–20 August 2018 Sociopol 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
23 June–1 July 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 12.1% 10.9–13.5% 10.5–13.9% 10.3–14.2% 9.7–14.9%
1–30 June 2018 IMAS 19.3% 17.9–20.9% 17.5–21.3% 17.2–21.7% 16.5–22.4%
22–26 June 2018 Sociopol
România TV		 14.0% 12.6–15.5% 12.2–16.0% 11.9–16.4% 11.2–17.1%
28 May–8 June 2018 Sociopol
România TV		 16.9% 15.5–18.5% 15.1–19.0% 14.8–19.4% 14.1–20.2%
27 April–8 May 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 9.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 7.0–11.5%
1–31 March 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.5% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
27 February–5 March 2018 Sociopol
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
1–28 February 2018 IMAS 11.2% 10.0–12.6% 9.7–13.0% 9.4–13.3% 8.8–14.0%
3–10 January 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 6.7% 5.9–7.8% 5.6–8.1% 5.4–8.4% 5.0–9.0%
24 November–7 December 2017 Avangarde 5.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.6% 3.6–6.9% 3.2–7.5%
1–30 November 2017 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 5.0% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.4% 3.5–6.9%
22 September–5 October 2017 Sociopol 1.9% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.0–3.5%
1–30 September 2017 IMAS 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
28 August–14 September 2017 Sociopol 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
11–23 August 2017 Avangarde 6.1% 5.0–7.4% 4.8–7.7% 4.5–8.1% 4.1–8.7%
15–22 June 2017 Avangarde 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8% 7.1–11.2% 6.6–11.9%
1–30 April 2017 IMAS 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
6–14 March 2017 Sociopol 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.2–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
1–31 January 2017 IMAS 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8.5–9.5% 0% 100% Last Result
9.5–10.5% 0.3% 100%  
10.5–11.5% 3% 99.7%  
11.5–12.5% 9% 97%  
12.5–13.5% 11% 88%  
13.5–14.5% 8% 78%  
14.5–15.5% 10% 70%  
15.5–16.5% 18% 60% Median
16.5–17.5% 19% 42%  
17.5–18.5% 14% 22%  
18.5–19.5% 6% 8%  
19.5–20.5% 2% 2%  
20.5–21.5% 0.4% 0.4%  
21.5–22.5% 0% 0%  
22.5–23.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 30 seats (General Election of 21 December 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 54 45–64 43–67 42–68 39–72
2–3 December 2020 IRES 53 49–59 48–60 46–61 44–64
28–29 November 2020 Sociopol 46 41–51 39–52 39–54 37–56
22–28 November 2020 IRSOP 58 53–63 51–64 50–66 48–69
6–27 November 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 63 57–69 56–71 55–72 52–75
20–25 November 2020 Verifield 61 55–67 54–68 53–70 50–73
11–18 November 2020 ADS
PER		 49 44–55 43–56 41–58 39–60
1–10 November 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 51 46–56 45–57 44–58 42–61
25–30 October 2020 BCS
PMP		 58 54–63 53–65 51–66 50–68
7–28 October 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 68 62–74 61–76 59–77 57–80
8–11 October 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 39 35–45 33–46 32–48 30–50
7–23 September 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 61 55–66 54–68 52–70 50–72
6–26 August 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 63 58–69 57–71 56–72 53–75
29 July–5 August 2020 CURS 49 44–54 42–56 41–57 39–60
10–29 July 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 60 55–66 53–67 52–68 50–71
19–30 June 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 53 48–58 46–59 45–61 43–64
5–27 June 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 73 67–79 65–81 63–82 61–85
8–27 May 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 58 53–64 51–65 50–67 48–70
15–26 May 2020 Avangarde 46 42–51 40–52 39–54 36–57
15–20 May 2020 INSCOP 73 67–78 65–80 64–81 61–84
1–7 May 2020 BCS 93 86–99 84–101 83–102 80–106
6–24 April 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 56 51–62 49–63 48–65 46–68
11–15 April 2020 BCS 67 62–72 60–74 59–75 57–78
6–12 April 2020 Avangarde
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 53 48–59 46–61 45–62 42–65
5–26 March 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 66 60–72 59–74 58–75 55–79
11–28 February 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 48 43–54 42–55 41–57 38–60
13–31 January 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 55 50–60 49–62 47–63 45–66
20–30 January 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 50 45–54 43–56 42–57 40–59
13–18 December 2019 Sociopol 45 40–50 39–52 38–53 36–56
4–18 December 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 52 47–57 46–59 45–60 42–63
12–17 December 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 47 42–52 41–54 40–56 38–58
11–27 November 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 64 58–69 57–71 56–72 53–75
25 October–3 November 2019 USR 70 64–76 62–77 61–79 58–82
8–28 October 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 74 68–79 66–82 64–83 62–86
15–23 October 2019 USR 81 76–88 74–89 73–91 70–95
12–19 October 2019 BCS 76 69–84 68–86 66–88 63–91
5–28 September 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 79 73–85 72–87 71–89 68–92
3–24 September 2019 USR 82 76–90 74–92 73–94 70–97
16–20 September 2019 Socio-Data 74 68–81 66–82 65–84 62–87
9–13 September 2019 Socio-Data 74 68–80 66–83 65–84 62–87
2–6 September 2019 Socio-Data 67 61–73 60–75 58–76 56–80
19–31 August 2019 Sociopol 55 50–61 48–63 47–65 44–68
26–30 August 2019 Verifield 77 71–83 70–85 68–86 65–90
26–30 August 2019 Socio-Data 79 73–86 71–88 70–90 67–93
5–28 August 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 85 80–92 78–94 77–95 74–98
19 July–5 August 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 65 60–69 59–70 58–72 56–74
15 July–2 August 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 92 86–98 85–100 83–102 81–105
7–23 July 2019 BCS 78 72–85 70–86 68–88 65–92
28 June–8 July 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 75 68–83 66–84 65–85 63–88
7–26 June 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 85 79–91 78–93 76–94 73–97
2–20 May 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 67 61–72 60–74 58–76 56–79
1–21 February 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 62 56–67 55–69 54–70 51–73
21 January–6 February 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 45 40–50 39–51 38–53 36–55
21 January–5 February 2019 INSCOP
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung		 57 52–62 51–64 49–65 47–68
28 January–4 February 2019 Sociopol 51 46–56 45–58 44–59 42–62
1–31 January 2019 PNL 50 49–51 49–51 49–52 48–52
11–30 January 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 67 61–72 60–74 58–75 56–78
4–20 December 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 67 62–73 60–74 59–76 56–79
24 November–9 December 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 41 36–46 35–47 34–48 32–51
1–30 November 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 81 75–87 73–89 72–90 69–93
26 October–12 November 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 51 46–54 45–57 44–58 42–61
1–31 October 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 80 74–87 73–89 71–90 68–93
3–4 October 2018 Sociopol 38 33–44 32–45 31–47 29–49
20 September–1 October 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 43 38–47 37–49 36–50 34–53
1–30 September 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 66 61–72 60–74 58–75 56–78
22–27 September 2018 Sociopol 41 37–46 36–48 35–49 33–51
7–20 August 2018 Sociopol 73 68–79 66–81 65–82 62–85
23 June–1 July 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 42 37–47 36–48 35–49 33–52
1–30 June 2018 IMAS 67 62–72 60–73 59–74 57–77
22–26 June 2018 Sociopol
România TV		 46 42–52 40–53 39–55 36–57
28 May–8 June 2018 Sociopol
România TV		 61 55–66 54–68 53–69 50–72
27 April–8 May 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 31 0–35 0–37 0–38 0–40
1–31 March 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 0 0–28 0–30 0–31 0–33
27 February–5 March 2018 Sociopol
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 41 37–47 35–48 34–50 32–52
1–28 February 2018 IMAS 40 35–45 34–46 33–48 31–50
3–10 January 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 0 0 0–28 0–29 0–31
24 November–7 December 2017 Avangarde 0 0 0 0 0
1–30 November 2017 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 0 0 0 0 0
22 September–5 October 2017 Sociopol 0 0 0 0 0
1–30 September 2017 IMAS 0 0 0–28 0–30 0–32
28 August–14 September 2017 Sociopol 0 0–26 0–27 0–28 0–30
11–23 August 2017 Avangarde 0 0 0 0–27 0–30
15–22 June 2017 Avangarde 29 0–34 0–35 0–36 0–39
1–30 April 2017 IMAS 31 0–35 0–36 0–38 0–40
6–14 March 2017 Sociopol 41 37–46 35–48 34–49 33–52
1–31 January 2017 IMAS 30 0–35 0–36 0–37 0–39

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0.6% 99.7%  
40 0.5% 99.1%  
41 1.0% 98.6%  
42 1.1% 98%  
43 2% 96%  
44 2% 95%  
45 3% 92%  
46 4% 90%  
47 4% 86%  
48 5% 82%  
49 4% 78%  
50 5% 73%  
51 5% 68%  
52 5% 64%  
53 5% 58%  
54 5% 53% Median
55 5% 48%  
56 5% 44%  
57 4% 39%  
58 4% 35%  
59 4% 30%  
60 4% 26%  
61 4% 22%  
62 3% 18%  
63 3% 15%  
64 3% 12%  
65 2% 9%  
66 2% 7%  
67 1.5% 5%  
68 1.2% 4%  
69 0.8% 2%  
70 0.6% 2%  
71 0.4% 1.1%  
72 0.4% 0.7%  
73 0.1% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%