Opinion Poll by IMAS, 1–30 April 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 45.5% 40.6% 38.6–42.6% 38.1–43.2% 37.6–43.7% 36.7–44.7%
Partidul Național Liberal 20.0% 25.4% 23.7–27.2% 23.2–27.7% 22.8–28.2% 22.0–29.1%
Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților 5.6% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 8.9% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.2–10.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 154 157 147–174 145–177 143–179 140–183
Partidul Național Liberal 69 99 90–110 88–112 87–115 84–119
Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților 20 33 28–38 27–40 26–41 24–44
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 30 31 0–35 0–36 0–38 0–40

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0% 100%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.8%  
139 0.2% 99.7%  
140 0.3% 99.5%  
141 0.5% 99.2%  
142 0.7% 98.7%  
143 1.0% 98%  
144 1.4% 97%  
145 2% 96%  
146 2% 94%  
147 3% 92%  
148 3% 89%  
149 4% 85%  
150 4% 82%  
151 4% 77%  
152 5% 73%  
153 4% 68%  
154 5% 64% Last Result
155 4% 60%  
156 4% 56%  
157 3% 52% Median
158 3% 49%  
159 2% 46%  
160 2% 44%  
161 2% 42%  
162 2% 40%  
163 2% 38%  
164 2% 36%  
165 2% 34% Majority
166 2% 32%  
167 3% 30%  
168 3% 27%  
169 3% 25%  
170 3% 22%  
171 3% 19%  
172 3% 16%  
173 3% 14%  
174 2% 11%  
175 2% 9%  
176 2% 7%  
177 1.4% 5%  
178 1.1% 4%  
179 0.8% 3%  
180 0.6% 2%  
181 0.4% 1.3%  
182 0.3% 0.9%  
183 0.2% 0.6%  
184 0.2% 0.4%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0.1% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.4% 99.5%  
85 0.6% 99.1%  
86 0.8% 98.5%  
87 1.4% 98%  
88 2% 96%  
89 2% 95%  
90 3% 92%  
91 3% 89%  
92 4% 86%  
93 5% 82%  
94 5% 77%  
95 5% 72%  
96 5% 68%  
97 5% 63%  
98 5% 58%  
99 5% 53% Median
100 5% 48%  
101 4% 43%  
102 4% 39%  
103 4% 35%  
104 4% 31%  
105 3% 27%  
106 4% 24%  
107 4% 20%  
108 3% 16%  
109 3% 14%  
110 3% 11%  
111 2% 8%  
112 2% 7%  
113 1.4% 5%  
114 1.0% 4%  
115 0.7% 3%  
116 0.6% 2%  
117 0.4% 1.2%  
118 0.3% 0.8%  
119 0.2% 0.5%  
120 0.1% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.4% 99.8%  
25 0.9% 99.4%  
26 2% 98.6%  
27 3% 97%  
28 5% 94%  
29 6% 89%  
30 7% 83%  
31 9% 75%  
32 10% 66%  
33 9% 56% Median
34 10% 47%  
35 9% 37%  
36 8% 28%  
37 6% 20%  
38 5% 15%  
39 3% 9%  
40 3% 6%  
41 1.3% 4%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 0.6% 1.3%  
44 0.3% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100%  
1 0% 60%  
2 0% 60%  
3 0% 60%  
4 0% 60%  
5 0% 60%  
6 0% 60%  
7 0% 60%  
8 0% 60%  
9 0% 60%  
10 0% 60%  
11 0% 60%  
12 0% 60%  
13 0% 60%  
14 0% 60%  
15 0% 60%  
16 0% 60%  
17 0% 60%  
18 0% 60%  
19 0% 60%  
20 0% 60%  
21 0% 60%  
22 0% 60%  
23 0% 60%  
24 0% 60%  
25 0% 60%  
26 0% 60%  
27 0% 60%  
28 0% 60%  
29 0.4% 60%  
30 6% 59% Last Result
31 12% 53% Median
32 11% 41%  
33 9% 30%  
34 8% 21%  
35 5% 13%  
36 4% 8%  
37 2% 5%  
38 1.3% 3%  
39 0.6% 1.3%  
40 0.4% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților 174 189 100% 179–209 177–212 175–214 172–218
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 119 155 11% 138–165 135–167 133–169 129–172
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 99 123 0% 103–133 100–135 98–137 94–140
Partidul Național Liberal 69 99 0% 90–110 88–112 87–115 84–119

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0% 100%  
169 0.1% 99.9%  
170 0.1% 99.8%  
171 0.2% 99.7%  
172 0.3% 99.5%  
173 0.5% 99.2%  
174 0.7% 98.7% Last Result
175 1.0% 98%  
176 1.4% 97%  
177 2% 95%  
178 2% 94%  
179 3% 91%  
180 4% 88%  
181 4% 85%  
182 4% 81%  
183 5% 76%  
184 5% 72%  
185 4% 67%  
186 4% 63%  
187 4% 58%  
188 3% 55%  
189 3% 51%  
190 2% 48% Median
191 2% 46%  
192 1.4% 44%  
193 1.2% 43%  
194 1.0% 41%  
195 0.9% 41%  
196 0.9% 40%  
197 0.9% 39%  
198 1.1% 38%  
199 1.5% 37%  
200 2% 35%  
201 2% 34%  
202 2% 32%  
203 3% 29%  
204 3% 27%  
205 3% 24%  
206 3% 21%  
207 3% 18%  
208 3% 15%  
209 3% 12%  
210 2% 9%  
211 2% 7%  
212 2% 6%  
213 1.1% 4%  
214 0.8% 3%  
215 0.7% 2%  
216 0.4% 1.2%  
217 0.3% 0.8%  
218 0.2% 0.5%  
219 0.1% 0.3%  
220 0.1% 0.2%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100% Last Result
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.2% 99.8%  
129 0.2% 99.6%  
130 0.3% 99.4%  
131 0.4% 99.1%  
132 0.6% 98.7%  
133 0.8% 98%  
134 1.1% 97%  
135 1.4% 96%  
136 2% 95%  
137 2% 93%  
138 2% 91%  
139 3% 89%  
140 3% 86%  
141 3% 84%  
142 3% 81%  
143 3% 78%  
144 3% 75%  
145 3% 73%  
146 2% 70%  
147 2% 68%  
148 2% 66%  
149 2% 64%  
150 2% 62%  
151 2% 60%  
152 2% 58%  
153 2% 56%  
154 3% 54%  
155 3% 51%  
156 4% 48%  
157 4% 44%  
158 5% 40%  
159 4% 36%  
160 5% 32%  
161 4% 27%  
162 4% 23%  
163 4% 18% Median
164 3% 15%  
165 3% 11% Majority
166 2% 8%  
167 2% 6%  
168 1.4% 4%  
169 1.0% 3%  
170 0.7% 2%  
171 0.5% 1.3%  
172 0.3% 0.8%  
173 0.2% 0.5%  
174 0.1% 0.3%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.2% 99.7%  
95 0.3% 99.5%  
96 0.4% 99.2%  
97 0.7% 98.8%  
98 0.8% 98%  
99 1.1% 97% Last Result
100 2% 96%  
101 2% 94%  
102 2% 93%  
103 3% 91%  
104 3% 88%  
105 3% 85%  
106 3% 82%  
107 3% 79%  
108 3% 76%  
109 3% 73%  
110 2% 71%  
111 2% 68%  
112 2% 66%  
113 1.5% 65%  
114 1.1% 63%  
115 0.9% 62%  
116 0.9% 61%  
117 0.9% 60%  
118 1.0% 59%  
119 1.2% 59%  
120 1.4% 57%  
121 2% 56%  
122 2% 54%  
123 3% 52%  
124 3% 49%  
125 4% 45%  
126 4% 42%  
127 4% 37%  
128 5% 33%  
129 5% 28%  
130 4% 24% Median
131 4% 19%  
132 4% 15%  
133 3% 12%  
134 2% 9%  
135 2% 6%  
136 1.4% 5%  
137 1.0% 3%  
138 0.7% 2%  
139 0.5% 1.3%  
140 0.3% 0.8%  
141 0.2% 0.5%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.4% 99.5%  
85 0.6% 99.1%  
86 0.8% 98.5%  
87 1.4% 98%  
88 2% 96%  
89 2% 95%  
90 3% 92%  
91 3% 89%  
92 4% 86%  
93 5% 82%  
94 5% 77%  
95 5% 72%  
96 5% 68%  
97 5% 63%  
98 5% 58%  
99 5% 53% Median
100 5% 48%  
101 4% 43%  
102 4% 39%  
103 4% 35%  
104 4% 31%  
105 3% 27%  
106 4% 24%  
107 4% 20%  
108 3% 16%  
109 3% 14%  
110 3% 11%  
111 2% 8%  
112 2% 7%  
113 1.4% 5%  
114 1.0% 4%  
115 0.7% 3%  
116 0.6% 2%  
117 0.4% 1.2%  
118 0.3% 0.8%  
119 0.2% 0.5%  
120 0.1% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations