Opinion Poll by CURS for STIRIPESURSE.RO, 1–31 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 45.5% 39.0% 37.1–40.9% 36.6–41.5% 36.1–42.0% 35.2–42.9%
Partidul Național Liberal 20.0% 27.0% 25.3–28.8% 24.8–29.3% 24.4–29.7% 23.6–30.6%
Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților 5.6% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.2–14.1% 9.6–14.8%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 8.9% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.5% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 5.4% 5.0% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.4% 3.5–6.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 154 149 138–160 135–163 131–165 126–168
Partidul Național Liberal 69 103 95–112 92–114 89–116 85–120
Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților 20 46 40–51 39–53 38–54 35–57
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 30 0 0–28 0–30 0–31 0–33
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 18 17 0–22 0–23 0–24 0–25

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.8%  
125 0.1% 99.7%  
126 0.2% 99.6%  
127 0.2% 99.4%  
128 0.3% 99.1%  
129 0.4% 98.8%  
130 0.5% 98%  
131 0.5% 98%  
132 0.7% 97%  
133 0.7% 97%  
134 0.9% 96%  
135 1.1% 95%  
136 1.2% 94%  
137 2% 93%  
138 2% 91%  
139 2% 90%  
140 2% 88%  
141 3% 85%  
142 3% 82%  
143 4% 79%  
144 4% 75%  
145 4% 71%  
146 5% 67%  
147 4% 62%  
148 4% 58%  
149 4% 54% Median
150 4% 49%  
151 4% 45%  
152 4% 41%  
153 4% 37%  
154 4% 33% Last Result
155 4% 29%  
156 3% 25%  
157 4% 22%  
158 3% 18%  
159 3% 14%  
160 3% 12%  
161 2% 9%  
162 2% 7%  
163 1.4% 5%  
164 1.2% 4%  
165 0.8% 3% Majority
166 0.6% 2%  
167 0.5% 1.2%  
168 0.3% 0.7%  
169 0.2% 0.4%  
170 0.1% 0.3%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.2% 99.6%  
86 0.3% 99.4%  
87 0.5% 99.2%  
88 0.5% 98.7%  
89 0.7% 98%  
90 1.0% 97%  
91 1.1% 97%  
92 1.4% 95%  
93 2% 94%  
94 2% 92%  
95 3% 90%  
96 3% 87%  
97 4% 84%  
98 4% 80%  
99 5% 76%  
100 5% 71%  
101 5% 67%  
102 6% 61%  
103 6% 55% Median
104 6% 50%  
105 6% 44%  
106 6% 38%  
107 5% 32%  
108 5% 27%  
109 4% 23%  
110 3% 18%  
111 3% 15%  
112 3% 11%  
113 2% 9%  
114 2% 7%  
115 1.5% 5%  
116 1.0% 3%  
117 0.7% 2%  
118 0.5% 1.5%  
119 0.4% 1.0%  
120 0.2% 0.6%  
121 0.2% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.7%  
36 0.6% 99.4%  
37 1.0% 98.8%  
38 2% 98%  
39 3% 96%  
40 4% 93%  
41 5% 89%  
42 7% 84%  
43 8% 78%  
44 9% 70%  
45 9% 61%  
46 9% 52% Median
47 9% 43%  
48 8% 34%  
49 7% 26%  
50 6% 20%  
51 4% 14%  
52 3% 10%  
53 2% 6%  
54 1.5% 4%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.6% 1.4%  
57 0.4% 0.8%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Median
1 0% 12%  
2 0% 12%  
3 0% 12%  
4 0% 12%  
5 0% 12%  
6 0% 12%  
7 0% 12%  
8 0% 12%  
9 0% 12%  
10 0% 12%  
11 0% 12%  
12 0% 12%  
13 0% 12%  
14 0% 12%  
15 0% 12%  
16 0% 12%  
17 0% 12%  
18 0% 12%  
19 0% 12%  
20 0% 12%  
21 0% 12%  
22 0% 12%  
23 0% 12%  
24 0% 12%  
25 0% 12%  
26 0% 12%  
27 0.5% 12%  
28 2% 11%  
29 3% 9%  
30 3% 6% Last Result
31 2% 3%  
32 0.8% 2%  
33 0.5% 0.8%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100%  
1 0% 50%  
2 0% 50%  
3 0% 50%  
4 0% 50%  
5 0% 50%  
6 0% 50%  
7 0% 50%  
8 0% 50%  
9 0% 50%  
10 0% 50%  
11 0% 50%  
12 0% 50%  
13 0% 50%  
14 0% 50%  
15 0% 50%  
16 0% 50%  
17 1.1% 50% Median
18 4% 49% Last Result
19 14% 45%  
20 12% 32%  
21 9% 20%  
22 5% 11%  
23 3% 6%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.7% 1.2%  
26 0.3% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 119 152 9% 142–164 140–169 138–173 134–178
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 117 117 0% 104–129 102–135 100–140 97–145
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 99 105 0% 97–119 95–125 93–130 90–135
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 87 113 0% 102–125 98–128 96–129 91–133
Partidul Național Liberal 69 103 0% 95–112 92–114 89–116 85–120
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 48 19 0% 0–29 0–45 0–48 0–51
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților 174 195 99.8% Parties of ethnic minorities–17 17 17 17
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 137 163 42% 152–174 149–177 147–Parties of ethnic minorities 17

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100% Last Result
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.9%  
133 0.2% 99.8%  
134 0.3% 99.6%  
135 0.4% 99.3%  
136 0.6% 98.9%  
137 0.8% 98%  
138 1.2% 98%  
139 1.3% 96%  
140 2% 95%  
141 3% 93%  
142 3% 91%  
143 3% 88%  
144 4% 85%  
145 4% 81%  
146 4% 77%  
147 4% 74%  
148 4% 69%  
149 5% 65% Median
150 4% 60%  
151 4% 56%  
152 4% 52%  
153 4% 48%  
154 4% 44%  
155 4% 39%  
156 4% 35%  
157 4% 31%  
158 3% 27%  
159 3% 24%  
160 3% 21%  
161 3% 18%  
162 2% 15%  
163 2% 13%  
164 2% 11%  
165 1.4% 9% Majority
166 1.0% 8%  
167 0.9% 7%  
168 0.8% 6%  
169 0.7% 5%  
170 0.6% 4%  
171 0.7% 4%  
172 0.6% 3%  
173 0.5% 3%  
174 0.3% 2%  
175 0.4% 2%  
176 0.4% 1.3%  
177 0.3% 1.0%  
178 0.2% 0.7%  
179 0.2% 0.5%  
180 0.1% 0.3%  
181 0.1% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.3% 99.5%  
98 0.5% 99.2%  
99 0.7% 98.6%  
100 1.0% 98%  
101 1.2% 97%  
102 2% 96%  
103 2% 94%  
104 3% 92%  
105 3% 89%  
106 3% 86%  
107 3% 83%  
108 4% 80%  
109 4% 76%  
110 3% 73%  
111 3% 69%  
112 3% 66%  
113 3% 63%  
114 3% 60%  
115 3% 57%  
116 3% 55%  
117 3% 51% Last Result
118 3% 48%  
119 4% 45%  
120 4% 41% Median
121 4% 38%  
122 5% 34%  
123 3% 29%  
124 4% 26%  
125 3% 22%  
126 3% 19%  
127 2% 16%  
128 2% 14%  
129 2% 12%  
130 1.2% 10%  
131 1.1% 9%  
132 0.9% 8%  
133 0.7% 7%  
134 0.7% 6%  
135 0.6% 5%  
136 0.6% 5%  
137 0.5% 4%  
138 0.5% 3%  
139 0.4% 3%  
140 0.5% 3%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0.3% 2%  
143 0.3% 1.2%  
144 0.2% 0.9%  
145 0.2% 0.7%  
146 0.2% 0.5%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.8%  
90 0.3% 99.6%  
91 0.5% 99.3%  
92 0.7% 98.9%  
93 1.0% 98%  
94 1.4% 97%  
95 2% 96%  
96 2% 94%  
97 3% 92%  
98 4% 89%  
99 4% 85% Last Result
100 4% 81%  
101 5% 77%  
102 6% 72%  
103 6% 66% Median
104 5% 60%  
105 6% 55%  
106 5% 49%  
107 5% 44%  
108 5% 39%  
109 4% 34%  
110 3% 30%  
111 3% 26%  
112 3% 23%  
113 2% 20%  
114 2% 18%  
115 2% 16%  
116 1.3% 14%  
117 1.2% 13%  
118 1.0% 11%  
119 1.0% 10%  
120 0.8% 9%  
121 0.8% 9%  
122 0.7% 8%  
123 0.8% 7%  
124 0.8% 6%  
125 0.7% 6%  
126 0.6% 5%  
127 0.7% 4%  
128 0.5% 4%  
129 0.5% 3%  
130 0.5% 3%  
131 0.5% 2%  
132 0.4% 2%  
133 0.4% 1.2%  
134 0.2% 0.9%  
135 0.2% 0.6%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 99.9% Last Result
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.8%  
90 0.2% 99.7%  
91 0.2% 99.5%  
92 0.3% 99.3%  
93 0.4% 99.0%  
94 0.5% 98.6%  
95 0.6% 98%  
96 0.8% 98%  
97 0.8% 97%  
98 1.0% 96%  
99 1.2% 95%  
100 1.5% 94%  
101 2% 92%  
102 2% 91%  
103 3% 88%  
104 3% 86%  
105 3% 83%  
106 4% 80%  
107 4% 76%  
108 4% 72%  
109 4% 68%  
110 4% 64%  
111 4% 60%  
112 3% 57%  
113 3% 53%  
114 3% 50%  
115 3% 47%  
116 3% 44%  
117 3% 40%  
118 3% 37%  
119 4% 34%  
120 3% 30% Median
121 4% 27%  
122 4% 23%  
123 3% 18%  
124 3% 15%  
125 3% 12%  
126 2% 9%  
127 2% 7%  
128 2% 5%  
129 1.2% 4%  
130 0.8% 2%  
131 0.6% 2%  
132 0.4% 1.0%  
133 0.2% 0.6%  
134 0.2% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.2% 99.6%  
86 0.3% 99.4%  
87 0.5% 99.2%  
88 0.5% 98.7%  
89 0.7% 98%  
90 1.0% 97%  
91 1.1% 97%  
92 1.4% 95%  
93 2% 94%  
94 2% 92%  
95 3% 90%  
96 3% 87%  
97 4% 84%  
98 4% 80%  
99 5% 76%  
100 5% 71%  
101 5% 67%  
102 6% 61%  
103 6% 55% Median
104 6% 50%  
105 6% 44%  
106 6% 38%  
107 5% 32%  
108 5% 27%  
109 4% 23%  
110 3% 18%  
111 3% 15%  
112 3% 11%  
113 2% 9%  
114 2% 7%  
115 1.5% 5%  
116 1.0% 3%  
117 0.7% 2%  
118 0.5% 1.5%  
119 0.4% 1.0%  
120 0.2% 0.6%  
121 0.2% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100%  
1 0% 56%  
2 0% 56%  
3 0% 56%  
4 0% 56%  
5 0% 56%  
6 0% 56%  
7 0% 56%  
8 0% 56%  
9 0% 56%  
10 0% 56%  
11 0% 56%  
12 0% 56%  
13 0% 56%  
14 0% 56%  
15 0% 56%  
16 0% 56%  
17 0% 56% Median
18 2% 56%  
19 12% 54%  
20 11% 42%  
21 8% 31%  
22 5% 22%  
23 3% 17%  
24 2% 14%  
25 0.7% 13%  
26 0.3% 12%  
27 0.1% 12%  
28 0.1% 12%  
29 2% 12%  
30 2% 10%  
31 1.2% 8%  
32 0.7% 7%  
33 0.4% 6%  
34 0.2% 6%  
35 0.1% 5%  
36 0% 5%  
37 0% 5%  
38 0% 5%  
39 0% 5%  
40 0% 5%  
41 0% 5%  
42 0% 5%  
43 0% 5%  
44 0.1% 5%  
45 0.6% 5%  
46 1.0% 5%  
47 1.1% 4%  
48 1.0% 3% Last Result
49 0.7% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.8% Majority
166 0.2% 99.7%  
167 0.2% 99.5%  
168 0.2% 99.3%  
169 0.3% 99.1%  
170 0.3% 98.8%  
171 0.5% 98%  
172 0.5% 98%  
173 0.4% 97%  
174 0.5% 97% Last Result
175 0.5% 97%  
176 0.6% 96%  
177 0.6% 95%  
178 0.7% 95%  
179 0.7% 94%  
180 0.9% 93%  
181 1.1% 92%  
182 1.2% 91%  
183 2% 90%  
184 2% 88%  
185 2% 86%  
186 3% 84%  
187 3% 81%  
188 4% 78%  
189 3% 74%  
190 5% 71%  
191 4% 66%  
192 4% 62%  
193 4% 59%  
194 3% 55%  
195 3% 52% Median
196 3% 49%  
197 3% 45%  
198 3% 43%  
199 3% 40%  
200 3% 37%  
201 3% 34%  
202 3% 31%  
203 4% 27%  
204 4% 24%  
205 3% 20%  
206 3% 17%  
207 3% 14%  
208 3% 11%  
209 2% 8%  
210 2% 6%  
211 1.2% 4%  
212 1.0% 3%  
213 0.7% 2%  
214 0.5% 1.4%  
215 0.3% 0.8%  
216 0.2% 0.5%  
217 0.1% 0.3%  
218 0.1% 0.2%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100% Last Result
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.8%  
143 0.2% 99.7%  
144 0.3% 99.6%  
145 0.5% 99.3%  
146 0.6% 98.8%  
147 0.8% 98%  
148 1.2% 97%  
149 1.4% 96%  
150 2% 95%  
151 2% 93%  
152 3% 91%  
153 3% 88%  
154 3% 86%  
155 4% 82%  
156 3% 78%  
157 4% 75%  
158 4% 71%  
159 4% 67%  
160 4% 63%  
161 4% 59%  
162 4% 55%  
163 4% 51%  
164 4% 46%  
165 4% 42% Majority
166 5% 38% Median
167 4% 33%  
168 4% 29%  
169 4% 25%  
170 3% 21%  
171 3% 18%  
172 2% 15%  
173 2% 12%  
174 2% 10%  
175 2% 9%  
176 1.2% 7%  
177 1.1% 6%  
178 0.9% 5%  
179 0.7% 4%  
180 0.7% 3%  
181 0.5% 3%  
182 0.5% 2%  
183 0.4% 2%  
184 0.3% 1.2%  
185 0.2% 0.9%  
186 0.2% 0.6%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations