Opinion Poll by CURS for STIRIPESURSE.RO, 26 October–12 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 45.5% 38.0% 36.1–39.9% 35.5–40.4% 35.1–40.9% 34.2–41.9%
Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților 5.6% 15.0% 13.7–16.5% 13.3–16.9% 13.0–17.3% 12.4–18.0%
Partidul Național Liberal 20.0% 15.0% 13.7–16.5% 13.3–16.9% 13.0–17.3% 12.4–18.0%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 8.9% 15.0% 13.7–16.5% 13.3–16.9% 13.0–17.3% 12.4–18.0%
PRO România 0.0% 9.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 7.0–11.5%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 5.4% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 154 129 122–135 121–137 119–139 116–142
Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților 20 52 45–57 44–58 44–58 43–59
Partidul Național Liberal 69 51 48–54 46–56 44–60 41–61
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 30 51 46–54 45–57 44–58 42–61
PRO România 0 30 26–34 25–36 25–37 23–39
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 18 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.3% 99.7%  
117 0.4% 99.4%  
118 0.7% 99.0%  
119 1.1% 98%  
120 2% 97%  
121 2% 95%  
122 4% 93%  
123 5% 89%  
124 5% 85%  
125 6% 80%  
126 7% 73%  
127 9% 67%  
128 8% 58%  
129 8% 50% Median
130 8% 42%  
131 6% 34%  
132 6% 28%  
133 6% 22%  
134 5% 16%  
135 3% 11%  
136 3% 8%  
137 2% 6%  
138 1.3% 4%  
139 0.9% 3%  
140 0.6% 2%  
141 0.4% 1.0%  
142 0.3% 0.6%  
143 0.2% 0.3%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0.1% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0% 99.8%  
42 0.1% 99.8%  
43 1.4% 99.7%  
44 5% 98%  
45 5% 94%  
46 2% 89%  
47 3% 87%  
48 2% 83%  
49 4% 81%  
50 5% 77%  
51 14% 72%  
52 28% 59% Median
53 16% 30%  
54 2% 15%  
55 0.3% 12%  
56 2% 12%  
57 5% 11%  
58 4% 6%  
59 1.0% 1.5%  
60 0.2% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 0.8% 99.4%  
43 0.9% 98.6%  
44 0.9% 98%  
45 0.8% 97%  
46 1.2% 96%  
47 3% 95%  
48 5% 92%  
49 8% 87%  
50 14% 79%  
51 22% 65% Median
52 19% 43%  
53 12% 23%  
54 5% 12%  
55 1.4% 7%  
56 0.6% 6%  
57 0.5% 5%  
58 0.7% 4%  
59 1.1% 4%  
60 1.4% 3%  
61 0.7% 1.2%  
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.6%  
43 0.9% 99.1%  
44 2% 98%  
45 3% 96%  
46 4% 94%  
47 5% 89%  
48 5% 84%  
49 6% 79%  
50 12% 73%  
51 17% 61% Median
52 17% 44%  
53 12% 28%  
54 6% 16%  
55 3% 10%  
56 2% 7%  
57 2% 5%  
58 1.2% 3%  
59 0.7% 2%  
60 0.4% 1.1%  
61 0.4% 0.7%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.8%  
24 1.4% 99.4%  
25 3% 98%  
26 6% 95%  
27 9% 89%  
28 13% 80%  
29 14% 67%  
30 12% 53% Median
31 12% 41%  
32 8% 29%  
33 7% 20%  
34 5% 13%  
35 3% 9%  
36 2% 5%  
37 1.4% 3%  
38 0.8% 1.5%  
39 0.4% 0.7%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților – PRO România 174 210 100% 204–216 203–218 201–220 198–222
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților 174 180 99.9% 174–186 172–188 170–190 167–193
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 154 158 15% 153–166 151–168 150–170 147–173
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților – Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 137 154 0.5% 146–159 144–161 142–162 139–165
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților – Partidul Național Liberal 119 154 0.5% 146–159 144–161 142–162 139–165
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 117 102 0% 96–108 94–109 92–111 90–114
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Național Liberal 99 102 0% 96–108 94–109 92–111 90–114
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 87 51 0% 48–54 46–57 44–60 41–62
Partidul Național Liberal 69 51 0% 48–54 46–56 44–60 41–61
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 48 51 0% 46–55 45–57 44–58 42–61

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100% Last Result
175 0% 100%  
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 100%  
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 100%  
183 0% 100%  
184 0% 100%  
185 0% 100%  
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 100%  
188 0% 100%  
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0.2% 99.9%  
197 0.2% 99.7%  
198 0.5% 99.6%  
199 0.5% 99.0%  
200 0.9% 98.5%  
201 1.0% 98%  
202 2% 97%  
203 2% 95%  
204 4% 93%  
205 3% 89%  
206 8% 87%  
207 4% 78%  
208 14% 74%  
209 8% 61%  
210 12% 53%  
211 9% 40% Median
212 6% 32%  
213 5% 26%  
214 4% 20%  
215 3% 17%  
216 3% 13%  
217 3% 10%  
218 2% 7%  
219 2% 4%  
220 1.2% 3%  
221 0.8% 1.4%  
222 0.3% 0.6%  
223 0.2% 0.3%  
224 0.1% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0.1% 100%  
165 0.1% 99.9% Majority
166 0.2% 99.8%  
167 0.3% 99.7%  
168 0.4% 99.4%  
169 0.7% 99.0%  
170 1.0% 98%  
171 2% 97%  
172 2% 96%  
173 3% 93%  
174 4% 91% Last Result
175 5% 87%  
176 6% 82%  
177 7% 76%  
178 7% 69%  
179 10% 63%  
180 9% 53%  
181 7% 45% Median
182 8% 37%  
183 6% 29%  
184 6% 23%  
185 5% 17%  
186 3% 12%  
187 3% 9%  
188 2% 6%  
189 1.2% 4%  
190 1.2% 3%  
191 0.5% 1.4%  
192 0.3% 0.9%  
193 0.3% 0.6%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0.1% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.2% 99.7%  
148 0.5% 99.5%  
149 0.8% 99.0%  
150 2% 98%  
151 3% 97%  
152 2% 94%  
153 7% 92%  
154 4% 84% Last Result
155 6% 80%  
156 11% 74%  
157 7% 63%  
158 11% 56%  
159 7% 45% Median
160 6% 38%  
161 6% 32%  
162 6% 26%  
163 3% 21%  
164 3% 18%  
165 3% 15% Majority
166 2% 11%  
167 3% 9%  
168 1.5% 6%  
169 1.2% 5%  
170 2% 4%  
171 0.7% 2%  
172 0.5% 1.1%  
173 0.3% 0.6%  
174 0.1% 0.3%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților – Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0% 100%  
137 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
138 0.1% 99.8%  
139 0.3% 99.7%  
140 0.5% 99.4%  
141 0.7% 98.9%  
142 2% 98%  
143 1.2% 96%  
144 1.5% 95%  
145 3% 94%  
146 2% 91%  
147 3% 89%  
148 3% 85%  
149 3% 82%  
150 6% 79%  
151 6% 74%  
152 6% 68%  
153 7% 62%  
154 11% 55% Median
155 7% 44%  
156 11% 37%  
157 6% 26%  
158 4% 20%  
159 7% 16%  
160 2% 8%  
161 3% 6%  
162 2% 3%  
163 0.8% 2%  
164 0.5% 1.0%  
165 0.2% 0.5% Majority
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0.1% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților – Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100% Last Result
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.8%  
139 0.3% 99.7%  
140 0.5% 99.4%  
141 0.7% 98.9%  
142 2% 98%  
143 1.2% 96%  
144 1.5% 95%  
145 3% 94%  
146 2% 91%  
147 3% 89%  
148 3% 85%  
149 3% 82%  
150 6% 79%  
151 6% 74%  
152 6% 68%  
153 7% 62%  
154 11% 55% Median
155 7% 44%  
156 11% 37%  
157 6% 26%  
158 4% 20%  
159 7% 16%  
160 2% 8%  
161 3% 6%  
162 2% 3%  
163 0.8% 2%  
164 0.5% 1.0%  
165 0.2% 0.5% Majority
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0.1% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.7%  
91 0.8% 99.4%  
92 1.2% 98.6%  
93 2% 97%  
94 2% 96%  
95 3% 93%  
96 3% 90%  
97 3% 87%  
98 4% 83%  
99 5% 80%  
100 6% 74%  
101 9% 68%  
102 12% 60% Median
103 8% 47%  
104 14% 39%  
105 4% 26%  
106 8% 22%  
107 3% 13%  
108 4% 11%  
109 2% 7%  
110 2% 5%  
111 1.0% 3%  
112 0.9% 2%  
113 0.5% 1.5%  
114 0.5% 1.0%  
115 0.2% 0.4%  
116 0.2% 0.3%  
117 0% 0.1% Last Result
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.7%  
91 0.8% 99.4%  
92 1.2% 98.6%  
93 2% 97%  
94 2% 96%  
95 3% 93%  
96 3% 90%  
97 3% 87%  
98 4% 83%  
99 5% 80% Last Result
100 6% 74%  
101 9% 68%  
102 12% 59% Median
103 8% 47%  
104 14% 39%  
105 4% 26%  
106 8% 22%  
107 3% 13%  
108 4% 10%  
109 2% 7%  
110 2% 5%  
111 1.0% 3%  
112 0.9% 2%  
113 0.5% 1.4%  
114 0.5% 0.9%  
115 0.2% 0.4%  
116 0.2% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 0.8% 99.4%  
43 0.9% 98.6%  
44 0.9% 98%  
45 0.8% 97%  
46 1.2% 96%  
47 3% 95%  
48 5% 92%  
49 8% 87%  
50 14% 79%  
51 22% 65% Median
52 19% 43%  
53 12% 24%  
54 5% 12%  
55 1.4% 7%  
56 0.6% 6%  
57 0.5% 5%  
58 0.7% 4%  
59 1.1% 4%  
60 1.4% 3%  
61 0.7% 1.3%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 0.8% 99.4%  
43 0.9% 98.6%  
44 0.9% 98%  
45 0.8% 97%  
46 1.2% 96%  
47 3% 95%  
48 5% 92%  
49 8% 87%  
50 14% 79%  
51 22% 65% Median
52 19% 43%  
53 12% 23%  
54 5% 12%  
55 1.4% 7%  
56 0.6% 6%  
57 0.5% 5%  
58 0.7% 4%  
59 1.1% 4%  
60 1.4% 3%  
61 0.7% 1.2%  
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.6%  
43 0.9% 99.1%  
44 2% 98%  
45 3% 96%  
46 4% 94%  
47 5% 89%  
48 5% 84% Last Result
49 6% 79%  
50 12% 73%  
51 17% 61% Median
52 17% 44%  
53 12% 28%  
54 6% 16%  
55 3% 10%  
56 2% 7%  
57 2% 5%  
58 1.2% 3%  
59 0.7% 2%  
60 0.4% 1.2%  
61 0.4% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations