Opinion Poll by Focus for TV Markíza, 16–20 December 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia | 0.0% | 19.0% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.2–20.9% | 16.8–21.3% | 16.2–22.1% |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 18.3% | 16.6% | 15.3–18.1% | 14.9–18.5% | 14.6–18.9% | 14.0–19.6% |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 7.0% | 12.8% | 11.6–14.1% | 11.3–14.5% | 11.0–14.8% | 10.5–15.5% |
| SME RODINA | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.3–9.3% | 7.0–9.7% | 6.8–9.9% | 6.4–10.5% |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 25.0% | 7.4% | 6.5–8.4% | 6.2–8.7% | 6.0–9.0% | 5.6–9.6% |
| REPUBLIKA | 0.0% | 6.9% | 6.0–7.9% | 5.8–8.2% | 5.5–8.5% | 5.2–9.0% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.9–7.2% | 4.7–7.4% | 4.4–7.9% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.6–6.8% | 4.4–7.1% | 4.1–7.5% |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.5–5.5% | 3.4–5.7% | 3.1–6.2% |
| Slovenská národná strana | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.2% | 2.6–4.4% | 2.5–4.6% | 2.2–5.0% |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 8.0% | 3.1% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.0–4.7% |
| Za ľudí | 5.8% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.5–3.2% | 1.3–3.6% |
| Dobrá voľba | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.1% |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 7.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia | 0 | 32 | 32–37 | 31–39 | 30–39 | 30–40 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 29 | 27–34 | 27–34 | 27–34 | 25–35 |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 0 | 25 | 21–27 | 19–27 | 19–27 | 19–29 |
| SME RODINA | 17 | 13 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–18 |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 53 | 14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–15 | 10–18 |
| REPUBLIKA | 0 | 11 | 10–15 | 10–15 | 10–15 | 10–16 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 0 | 10 | 9–13 | 0–13 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 13 | 10 | 9–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–12 |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 0 | 9 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–10 |
| Slovenská národná strana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Za ľudí | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dobrá voľba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 5% | 97% | |
| 32 | 43% | 92% | Median |
| 33 | 12% | 50% | |
| 34 | 10% | 38% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 28% | |
| 36 | 15% | 28% | |
| 37 | 4% | 13% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 39 | 8% | 9% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 27 | 43% | 98.8% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 56% | |
| 29 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 30 | 12% | 41% | |
| 31 | 9% | 29% | |
| 32 | 8% | 20% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 34 | 10% | 11% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Progresívne Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 21 | 14% | 90% | |
| 22 | 12% | 77% | |
| 23 | 6% | 65% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 59% | |
| 25 | 45% | 58% | Median |
| 26 | 4% | 14% | |
| 27 | 9% | 10% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 9% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 42% | 91% | Median |
| 14 | 15% | 49% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 34% | |
| 16 | 31% | 33% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 2% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 4% | 100% | |
| 11 | 10% | 96% | |
| 12 | 1.2% | 86% | |
| 13 | 6% | 85% | |
| 14 | 61% | 79% | Median |
| 15 | 17% | 18% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
REPUBLIKA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 44% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 18% | 56% | Median |
| 12 | 9% | 38% | |
| 13 | 8% | 29% | |
| 14 | 8% | 21% | |
| 15 | 11% | 12% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 90% | |
| 2 | 0% | 90% | |
| 3 | 0% | 90% | |
| 4 | 0% | 90% | |
| 5 | 0% | 90% | |
| 6 | 0% | 90% | |
| 7 | 0% | 90% | |
| 8 | 0% | 90% | |
| 9 | 2% | 90% | |
| 10 | 45% | 88% | Median |
| 11 | 15% | 43% | |
| 12 | 16% | 27% | |
| 13 | 10% | 11% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Sloboda a Solidarita
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 93% | |
| 2 | 0% | 93% | |
| 3 | 0% | 93% | |
| 4 | 0% | 93% | |
| 5 | 0% | 93% | |
| 6 | 0% | 93% | |
| 7 | 0% | 93% | |
| 8 | 0% | 93% | |
| 9 | 4% | 93% | |
| 10 | 77% | 89% | Median |
| 11 | 5% | 13% | |
| 12 | 7% | 8% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 52% | |
| 2 | 0% | 52% | |
| 3 | 0% | 52% | |
| 4 | 0% | 52% | |
| 5 | 0% | 52% | |
| 6 | 0% | 52% | |
| 7 | 0% | 52% | |
| 8 | 0% | 52% | |
| 9 | 47% | 52% | Median |
| 10 | 6% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenská národná strana
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Za ľudí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Dobrá voľba
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobrá voľba page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 72 | 77 | 58% | 72–83 | 72–83 | 72–83 | 72–89 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 55 | 77 | 57% | 72–83 | 72–83 | 72–83 | 72–89 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 55 | 77 | 58% | 72–83 | 72–83 | 72–83 | 72–89 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 38 | 63 | 0.3% | 59–67 | 59–68 | 59–68 | 59–73 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 34 | 47 | 0% | 45–52 | 45–53 | 45–53 | 44–57 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 17 | 47 | 0% | 45–52 | 45–53 | 45–53 | 44–57 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 17 | 47 | 0% | 45–52 | 45–53 | 45–53 | 44–57 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 72 | 42 | 0% | 40–50 | 40–50 | 40–50 | 40–52 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 55 | 42 | 0% | 40–50 | 40–50 | 40–50 | 40–52 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 55 | 42 | 0% | 40–50 | 40–50 | 40–50 | 40–52 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 0 | 32 | 0% | 32–37 | 31–39 | 30–39 | 30–40 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 29 | 0% | 27–34 | 27–34 | 27–34 | 25–35 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 38 | 29 | 0% | 27–34 | 27–34 | 27–34 | 25–36 |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 41% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.2% | 59% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 58% | Median |
| 75 | 0.3% | 58% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 58% | Majority |
| 77 | 7% | 57% | |
| 78 | 11% | 50% | |
| 79 | 3% | 39% | |
| 80 | 7% | 36% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 29% | |
| 82 | 8% | 28% | |
| 83 | 19% | 21% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 41% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 59% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 58% | Median |
| 75 | 0.3% | 58% | |
| 76 | 0.9% | 57% | Majority |
| 77 | 7% | 57% | |
| 78 | 11% | 50% | |
| 79 | 3% | 39% | |
| 80 | 7% | 35% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 28% | |
| 82 | 8% | 28% | |
| 83 | 19% | 20% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 41% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 59% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 58% | Median |
| 75 | 0.3% | 58% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 58% | Majority |
| 77 | 7% | 57% | |
| 78 | 11% | 50% | |
| 79 | 3% | 39% | |
| 80 | 7% | 36% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 29% | |
| 82 | 8% | 28% | |
| 83 | 19% | 21% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 42% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 57% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 57% | Median |
| 62 | 2% | 55% | |
| 63 | 8% | 53% | |
| 64 | 6% | 46% | |
| 65 | 1.3% | 39% | |
| 66 | 9% | 38% | |
| 67 | 19% | 29% | |
| 68 | 8% | 10% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 43% | 98.7% | Median |
| 46 | 2% | 56% | |
| 47 | 3% | 53% | |
| 48 | 9% | 50% | |
| 49 | 14% | 41% | |
| 50 | 8% | 27% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 19% | |
| 52 | 10% | 19% | |
| 53 | 8% | 9% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 43% | 98.7% | Median |
| 46 | 2% | 55% | |
| 47 | 3% | 53% | |
| 48 | 9% | 50% | |
| 49 | 14% | 41% | |
| 50 | 8% | 27% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 19% | |
| 52 | 10% | 19% | |
| 53 | 8% | 9% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 43% | 98.7% | Median |
| 46 | 2% | 56% | |
| 47 | 3% | 53% | |
| 48 | 9% | 50% | |
| 49 | 14% | 41% | |
| 50 | 8% | 27% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 19% | |
| 52 | 10% | 19% | |
| 53 | 8% | 9% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 41% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 5% | 58% | |
| 42 | 5% | 54% | Median |
| 43 | 11% | 48% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 37% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 37% | |
| 46 | 9% | 35% | |
| 47 | 10% | 26% | |
| 48 | 4% | 15% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 50 | 10% | 11% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 41% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 5% | 58% | |
| 42 | 5% | 54% | Median |
| 43 | 11% | 48% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 37% | |
| 45 | 1.5% | 36% | |
| 46 | 9% | 35% | |
| 47 | 10% | 26% | |
| 48 | 4% | 15% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 50 | 10% | 11% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 41% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 5% | 58% | |
| 42 | 5% | 54% | Median |
| 43 | 11% | 48% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 37% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 37% | |
| 46 | 9% | 35% | |
| 47 | 10% | 26% | |
| 48 | 4% | 15% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 50 | 10% | 11% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 5% | 97% | |
| 32 | 43% | 92% | Median |
| 33 | 12% | 50% | |
| 34 | 10% | 38% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 29% | |
| 36 | 15% | 28% | |
| 37 | 4% | 13% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 39 | 8% | 9% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 27 | 43% | 98.8% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 56% | |
| 29 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 30 | 12% | 41% | |
| 31 | 9% | 29% | |
| 32 | 8% | 20% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 34 | 10% | 11% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 27 | 43% | 98.8% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 56% | |
| 29 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 30 | 12% | 41% | |
| 31 | 9% | 29% | |
| 32 | 8% | 20% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 34 | 10% | 11% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Focus
- Commissioner(s): TV Markíza
- Fieldwork period: 16–20 December 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1180
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.85%