Opinion Poll by Median, 19–23 December 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
HLAS–sociálna demokracia 0.0% 19.1% 17.6–20.8% 17.1–21.2% 16.8–21.6% 16.1–22.5%
SMER–sociálna demokracia 18.3% 16.7% 15.3–18.3% 14.9–18.7% 14.5–19.1% 13.9–19.9%
Progresívne Slovensko 7.0% 14.1% 12.8–15.6% 12.4–16.0% 12.1–16.4% 11.5–17.1%
REPUBLIKA 0.0% 9.6% 8.5–10.9% 8.2–11.3% 8.0–11.6% 7.5–12.3%
Sloboda a Solidarita 6.2% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.7%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 25.0% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.1–7.7% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.5%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.6% 6.1% 5.2–7.1% 5.0–7.5% 4.7–7.7% 4.4–8.3%
SME RODINA 8.2% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 3.9% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Za ľudí 5.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
HLAS–sociálna demokracia 0 35 32–37 31–38 31–40 29–41
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 31 28–32 27–33 27–34 26–36
Progresívne Slovensko 0 26 23–29 22–30 21–31 20–32
REPUBLIKA 0 16 16–19 15–21 15–21 14–22
Sloboda a Solidarita 13 12 10–14 10–14 9–15 0–16
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 53 10 9–13 9–14 9–14 0–15
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 11 10–13 0–13 0–13 0–14
SME RODINA 17 9 0–12 0–13 0–13 0–14
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 17 0 0 0 0 0
Za ľudí 12 0 0 0 0 0

HLAS–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.4% 100%  
29 0.8% 99.5%  
30 1.0% 98.7%  
31 3% 98%  
32 11% 95%  
33 7% 84%  
34 15% 77%  
35 41% 62% Median
36 6% 21%  
37 8% 15%  
38 2% 7%  
39 0.6% 5%  
40 2% 4%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 0.7% 99.5%  
27 8% 98.8%  
28 9% 90%  
29 15% 82%  
30 7% 67%  
31 46% 60% Median
32 5% 14%  
33 4% 9%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.0% 2%  
36 0.5% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.9% 99.8%  
21 2% 98.9%  
22 2% 97%  
23 6% 95%  
24 4% 89%  
25 6% 85%  
26 40% 80% Median
27 3% 40%  
28 25% 37%  
29 5% 12%  
30 4% 7%  
31 3% 3%  
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.4% 100%  
14 1.4% 99.5%  
15 7% 98%  
16 47% 92% Median
17 13% 45%  
18 17% 32%  
19 7% 15%  
20 3% 8%  
21 4% 5%  
22 0.6% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.4%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 2% 98%  
10 11% 96%  
11 12% 86%  
12 48% 74% Median
13 9% 25% Last Result
14 14% 16%  
15 0.8% 3%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 11% 98%  
10 43% 87% Median
11 14% 45%  
12 18% 30%  
13 7% 12%  
14 4% 5%  
15 0.7% 1.0%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0% 94%  
7 0% 94%  
8 0% 94%  
9 2% 94%  
10 15% 91%  
11 50% 77% Median
12 11% 27%  
13 15% 16%  
14 0.9% 1.2%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 0% 83%  
2 0% 83%  
3 0% 83%  
4 0% 83%  
5 0% 83%  
6 0% 83%  
7 0% 83%  
8 0% 83%  
9 36% 83% Median
10 16% 47%  
11 18% 31%  
12 4% 14%  
13 8% 10%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.4% 0.5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Za ľudí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 75 18% 67–78 65–79 65–81 65–85
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 17 44 0% 36–47 34–48 34–50 33–53
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 40 0% 31–43 31–44 31–46 28–48
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 31 0% 28–32 27–33 27–34 26–36

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100% Last Result
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 7% 99.7%  
66 0.1% 93%  
67 4% 93%  
68 3% 89%  
69 1.3% 85%  
70 6% 84%  
71 5% 78%  
72 3% 73%  
73 4% 69%  
74 7% 65%  
75 39% 58% Median
76 5% 18% Majority
77 3% 13%  
78 4% 10%  
79 2% 6%  
80 1.4% 4%  
81 0.6% 3%  
82 0.4% 2%  
83 1.2% 2%  
84 0.2% 0.8%  
85 0.4% 0.5%  
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.7%  
33 0.2% 99.7%  
34 7% 99.5%  
35 0.6% 93%  
36 4% 92%  
37 2% 89%  
38 1.3% 87%  
39 0.2% 85%  
40 1.4% 85%  
41 4% 84%  
42 7% 80%  
43 7% 73%  
44 37% 66% Median
45 4% 29%  
46 12% 25%  
47 7% 13%  
48 3% 6%  
49 0.7% 3%  
50 1.0% 3%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.1% 0.9%  
53 0.6% 0.8%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 0.1% 99.5%  
30 1.2% 99.4%  
31 12% 98%  
32 0.4% 86%  
33 0.5% 86%  
34 2% 86%  
35 0.6% 83%  
36 1.2% 83%  
37 6% 82%  
38 4% 76%  
39 9% 72%  
40 40% 62% Median
41 8% 23%  
42 4% 15%  
43 4% 11%  
44 2% 7%  
45 1.0% 5%  
46 3% 4%  
47 0.6% 1.3%  
48 0.5% 0.7%  
49 0% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 0.7% 99.5%  
27 8% 98.8%  
28 9% 90%  
29 15% 82%  
30 7% 67%  
31 46% 60% Median
32 5% 14%  
33 4% 9%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.0% 2%  
36 0.5% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations