Opinion Poll by Median, 9 January–5 February 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 18.3% | 17.9% | 16.4–19.5% | 16.0–20.0% | 15.7–20.3% | 15.0–21.1% |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia | 0.0% | 15.6% | 14.3–17.2% | 13.9–17.6% | 13.5–18.0% | 12.9–18.8% |
| SME RODINA | 8.2% | 10.9% | 9.7–12.2% | 9.4–12.6% | 9.1–12.9% | 8.6–13.6% |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 7.0% | 9.6% | 8.5–10.9% | 8.2–11.3% | 8.0–11.6% | 7.5–12.2% |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 25.0% | 8.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.4–10.3% | 7.2–10.6% | 6.7–11.2% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.8–8.9% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.3–9.6% | 5.9–10.2% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.5–7.5% | 5.3–7.8% | 5.1–8.1% | 4.7–8.6% |
| REPUBLIKA | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.8% |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 8.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.6–3.6% | 1.4–4.0% |
| Slovenská národná strana | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| Za ľudí | 5.8% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| Dobrá voľba | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.0–3.2% |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 7.0% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 36 | 33–38 | 31–39 | 30–42 | 29–43 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia | 0 | 31 | 27–33 | 26–33 | 26–33 | 24–35 |
| SME RODINA | 17 | 21 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 17–23 | 16–26 |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 0 | 16 | 14–18 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 14–23 |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 53 | 17 | 14–20 | 12–22 | 12–22 | 12–22 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 13 | 15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 12–20 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 0 | 12 | 11–16 | 10–16 | 10–16 | 0–16 |
| REPUBLIKA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 0 | 0 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–10 |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenská národná strana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Za ľudí | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dobrá voľba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 31 | 2% | 97% | |
| 32 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 33 | 7% | 94% | |
| 34 | 8% | 87% | |
| 35 | 27% | 79% | |
| 36 | 39% | 52% | Median |
| 37 | 3% | 13% | |
| 38 | 4% | 11% | Last Result |
| 39 | 2% | 6% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 26 | 3% | 98% | |
| 27 | 9% | 95% | |
| 28 | 12% | 86% | |
| 29 | 3% | 74% | |
| 30 | 15% | 71% | |
| 31 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 32 | 6% | 49% | |
| 33 | 42% | 43% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 18 | 2% | 97% | |
| 19 | 5% | 96% | |
| 20 | 36% | 91% | |
| 21 | 34% | 55% | Median |
| 22 | 10% | 21% | |
| 23 | 9% | 11% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Progresívne Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 31% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 14% | 69% | |
| 16 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 17 | 12% | 43% | |
| 18 | 22% | 31% | |
| 19 | 3% | 9% | |
| 20 | 2% | 7% | |
| 21 | 2% | 4% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 14 | 3% | 92% | |
| 15 | 6% | 90% | |
| 16 | 31% | 83% | |
| 17 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 18 | 3% | 45% | |
| 19 | 3% | 42% | |
| 20 | 32% | 39% | |
| 21 | 2% | 7% | |
| 22 | 5% | 5% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sloboda a Solidarita
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 3% | 98.5% | Last Result |
| 14 | 30% | 95% | |
| 15 | 43% | 66% | Median |
| 16 | 16% | 22% | |
| 17 | 3% | 6% | |
| 18 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 20 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 8 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 10 | 5% | 98% | |
| 11 | 13% | 93% | |
| 12 | 42% | 80% | Median |
| 13 | 6% | 38% | |
| 14 | 4% | 32% | |
| 15 | 13% | 27% | |
| 16 | 14% | 14% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
REPUBLIKA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 10 | 4% | 6% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0% | 11% | |
| 4 | 0% | 11% | |
| 5 | 0% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0% | 11% | |
| 7 | 0% | 11% | |
| 8 | 0% | 11% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 10 | 10% | 11% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Slovenská národná strana
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Za ľudí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Dobrá voľba
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobrá voľba page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana | 72 | 88 | 99.1% | 84–91 | 80–91 | 79–91 | 74–95 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 55 | 88 | 99.1% | 84–91 | 80–91 | 79–91 | 74–95 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 55 | 88 | 99.1% | 84–91 | 80–91 | 79–91 | 74–95 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 38 | 67 | 0.2% | 61–69 | 61–69 | 58–70 | 55–74 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana | 72 | 56 | 0% | 54–58 | 51–60 | 50–64 | 49–64 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 55 | 56 | 0% | 54–58 | 51–60 | 50–64 | 49–64 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 55 | 56 | 0% | 54–58 | 51–60 | 50–64 | 49–64 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana | 34 | 51 | 0% | 49–55 | 46–55 | 45–55 | 43–57 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 17 | 51 | 0% | 49–55 | 46–55 | 45–55 | 43–57 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 17 | 51 | 0% | 49–55 | 46–55 | 45–55 | 43–57 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 36 | 0% | 33–38 | 31–39 | 30–42 | 29–43 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 38 | 36 | 0% | 33–38 | 31–39 | 30–42 | 29–43 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 0 | 31 | 0% | 27–33 | 26–33 | 26–33 | 24–35 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 76 | 1.0% | 99.1% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 79 | 2% | 98% | |
| 80 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 82 | 2% | 94% | |
| 83 | 1.5% | 92% | |
| 84 | 17% | 91% | |
| 85 | 5% | 74% | |
| 86 | 14% | 69% | |
| 87 | 5% | 56% | |
| 88 | 2% | 50% | Median |
| 89 | 32% | 49% | |
| 90 | 5% | 17% | |
| 91 | 11% | 12% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 76 | 1.0% | 99.1% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 79 | 2% | 98% | |
| 80 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 82 | 2% | 94% | |
| 83 | 1.5% | 92% | |
| 84 | 17% | 91% | |
| 85 | 5% | 74% | |
| 86 | 14% | 69% | |
| 87 | 5% | 56% | |
| 88 | 2% | 50% | Median |
| 89 | 32% | 49% | |
| 90 | 5% | 17% | |
| 91 | 11% | 12% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 76 | 1.0% | 99.1% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 79 | 2% | 98% | |
| 80 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 82 | 2% | 94% | |
| 83 | 1.5% | 92% | |
| 84 | 17% | 91% | |
| 85 | 5% | 74% | |
| 86 | 14% | 69% | |
| 87 | 5% | 56% | |
| 88 | 2% | 50% | Median |
| 89 | 32% | 49% | |
| 90 | 5% | 17% | |
| 91 | 11% | 12% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 61 | 7% | 95% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 63 | 12% | 88% | |
| 64 | 3% | 75% | |
| 65 | 16% | 73% | |
| 66 | 5% | 57% | |
| 67 | 4% | 52% | Median |
| 68 | 3% | 48% | |
| 69 | 41% | 45% | |
| 70 | 2% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 51 | 2% | 97% | |
| 52 | 3% | 95% | |
| 53 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 54 | 6% | 91% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 84% | |
| 56 | 55% | 83% | |
| 57 | 6% | 28% | Median |
| 58 | 13% | 21% | |
| 59 | 2% | 9% | |
| 60 | 3% | 6% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 2% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 51 | 2% | 97% | |
| 52 | 3% | 95% | |
| 53 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 54 | 6% | 91% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 84% | Last Result |
| 56 | 55% | 83% | |
| 57 | 6% | 28% | Median |
| 58 | 13% | 21% | |
| 59 | 2% | 9% | |
| 60 | 3% | 6% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 2% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 51 | 2% | 97% | |
| 52 | 3% | 95% | |
| 53 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 54 | 6% | 91% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 84% | Last Result |
| 56 | 55% | 83% | |
| 57 | 6% | 28% | Median |
| 58 | 13% | 21% | |
| 59 | 2% | 9% | |
| 60 | 3% | 6% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 2% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 46 | 3% | 97% | |
| 47 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 48 | 2% | 93% | |
| 49 | 13% | 91% | |
| 50 | 8% | 78% | |
| 51 | 22% | 71% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 49% | Median |
| 53 | 31% | 48% | |
| 54 | 5% | 16% | |
| 55 | 10% | 11% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 46 | 3% | 97% | |
| 47 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 48 | 2% | 93% | |
| 49 | 13% | 91% | |
| 50 | 8% | 78% | |
| 51 | 22% | 71% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 49% | Median |
| 53 | 31% | 48% | |
| 54 | 5% | 16% | |
| 55 | 10% | 11% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 46 | 3% | 97% | |
| 47 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 48 | 2% | 93% | |
| 49 | 13% | 91% | |
| 50 | 8% | 78% | |
| 51 | 22% | 71% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 49% | Median |
| 53 | 31% | 48% | |
| 54 | 5% | 16% | |
| 55 | 10% | 11% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 31 | 2% | 97% | |
| 32 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 33 | 7% | 94% | |
| 34 | 8% | 87% | |
| 35 | 27% | 79% | |
| 36 | 39% | 52% | Median |
| 37 | 3% | 13% | |
| 38 | 4% | 11% | Last Result |
| 39 | 2% | 6% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 31 | 2% | 97% | |
| 32 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 33 | 7% | 94% | |
| 34 | 8% | 87% | |
| 35 | 27% | 79% | |
| 36 | 39% | 52% | Median |
| 37 | 3% | 13% | |
| 38 | 4% | 11% | Last Result |
| 39 | 2% | 6% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 26 | 3% | 98% | |
| 27 | 9% | 95% | |
| 28 | 12% | 86% | |
| 29 | 3% | 74% | |
| 30 | 15% | 71% | |
| 31 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 32 | 6% | 49% | |
| 33 | 42% | 43% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Median
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9 January–5 February 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1029
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.65%