Opinion Poll by Median, 1 February–5 March 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 18.3% 19.5% 18.0–21.1% 17.6–21.6% 17.3–22.0% 16.6–22.8%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia 0.0% 14.5% 13.2–16.0% 12.8–16.4% 12.5–16.7% 11.9–17.5%
Progresívne Slovensko 7.0% 11.4% 10.3–12.8% 9.9–13.2% 9.7–13.5% 9.1–14.1%
Sloboda a Solidarita 6.2% 9.2% 8.2–10.4% 7.9–10.8% 7.6–11.1% 7.1–11.7%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 25.0% 8.5% 7.5–9.6% 7.2–10.0% 6.9–10.3% 6.5–10.9%
SME RODINA 8.2% 7.4% 6.5–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 6.0–9.2% 5.6–9.7%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.6% 6.3% 5.5–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–7.9% 4.6–8.5%
REPUBLIKA 0.0% 6.1% 5.3–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.7% 4.5–8.3%
Slovenská národná strana 3.2% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.0%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 3.9% 2.6% 2.1–3.3% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.7% 1.6–4.1%
Za ľudí 5.8% 2.2% 1.8–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.5–3.3% 1.3–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 34 32–38 32–39 32–40 31–41
HLAS–sociálna demokracia 0 27 24–28 24–29 23–30 22–33
Progresívne Slovensko 0 20 18–22 18–24 17–24 16–25
Sloboda a Solidarita 13 18 16–19 15–20 14–21 13–21
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 53 16 13–17 13–17 13–18 12–19
SME RODINA 17 13 11–15 11–15 11–16 10–18
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 12 9–14 9–14 9–14 0–15
REPUBLIKA 0 11 10–13 10–13 0–13 0–14
Slovenská národná strana 0 0 0 0 0 0–9
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 17 0 0 0 0 0
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0
Za ľudí 12 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.7%  
32 28% 99.4%  
33 12% 72%  
34 17% 60% Median
35 20% 42%  
36 5% 22%  
37 6% 18%  
38 4% 12% Last Result
39 5% 8%  
40 1.3% 3%  
41 1.2% 2%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0% 0.2%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.5%  
23 2% 98%  
24 15% 95%  
25 7% 81%  
26 11% 73%  
27 26% 63% Median
28 30% 37%  
29 3% 7%  
30 2% 4%  
31 0.4% 2%  
32 0.6% 1.3%  
33 0.7% 0.7%  
34 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.0% 99.9%  
17 2% 98.9%  
18 14% 97%  
19 7% 83%  
20 42% 76% Median
21 12% 33%  
22 15% 22%  
23 2% 7%  
24 4% 5%  
25 0.8% 1.2%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.9% Last Result
14 2% 98.8%  
15 5% 97%  
16 10% 92%  
17 22% 81%  
18 49% 60% Median
19 4% 11%  
20 3% 7%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.2% 99.8%  
13 9% 98.6%  
14 14% 89%  
15 20% 75%  
16 20% 55% Median
17 30% 34%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.6% 1.0%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 0.6% 99.8%  
11 13% 99.2%  
12 26% 86%  
13 11% 60% Median
14 18% 49%  
15 26% 31%  
16 3% 5%  
17 0.8% 1.4% Last Result
18 0.4% 0.6%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 17% 98%  
10 9% 81%  
11 18% 72%  
12 35% 54% Median
13 3% 19%  
14 14% 16%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 2% 97%  
10 21% 95%  
11 47% 75% Median
12 6% 28%  
13 21% 22%  
14 0.7% 0.8%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0% 2%  
8 0% 2%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Za ľudí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 72 74 22% 72–78 72–80 72–82 69–85
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 55 74 22% 72–78 72–80 72–82 69–85
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 74 20% 72–77 72–78 71–82 69–83
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 38 60 0% 59–66 59–66 57–69 56–71
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 72 48 0% 44–51 44–53 44–55 44–59
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 55 48 0% 44–51 44–53 44–55 44–59
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 48 0% 44–50 44–52 44–54 44–56
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 34 40 0% 38–42 36–43 36–46 35–50
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 17 40 0% 38–42 36–43 36–46 35–50
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 17 40 0% 37–42 36–43 36–44 34–47
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 38 34 0% 32–39 32–39 32–41 32–44
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 34 0% 32–38 32–39 32–40 31–41
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 0 27 0% 24–28 24–30 23–32 22–36

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.7% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.2%  
71 1.2% 99.0%  
72 28% 98% Last Result
73 8% 70%  
74 14% 62% Median
75 26% 48%  
76 5% 22% Majority
77 6% 17%  
78 5% 11%  
79 0.9% 6%  
80 1.3% 5%  
81 0.2% 4%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.2% 2%  
84 0.3% 1.0%  
85 0.3% 0.8%  
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100% Last Result
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0.8% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.2%  
71 1.2% 98.9%  
72 28% 98%  
73 8% 70%  
74 14% 62% Median
75 26% 48%  
76 5% 22% Majority
77 6% 17%  
78 5% 11%  
79 0.9% 6%  
80 1.3% 5%  
81 0.2% 4%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.2% 2%  
84 0.3% 1.0%  
85 0.3% 0.8%  
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100% Last Result
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 1.2% 99.6%  
70 0.4% 98%  
71 2% 98%  
72 28% 96%  
73 8% 69%  
74 14% 61% Median
75 26% 46%  
76 5% 20% Majority
77 6% 16%  
78 5% 10%  
79 0.8% 5%  
80 0.8% 4%  
81 0.1% 3%  
82 2% 3%  
83 1.1% 1.5%  
84 0.1% 0.4%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.6% 99.9%  
57 3% 99.3%  
58 0.7% 96%  
59 16% 95%  
60 37% 79%  
61 14% 43% Median
62 6% 29%  
63 5% 23%  
64 4% 17%  
65 3% 14%  
66 6% 10%  
67 0.6% 5%  
68 0.7% 4%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.5% 1.3%  
71 0.5% 0.8%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0% 0.3%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 25% 99.9%  
45 1.3% 75%  
46 3% 73%  
47 8% 71% Median
48 24% 63%  
49 6% 39%  
50 22% 32%  
51 3% 11%  
52 1.4% 8%  
53 2% 6%  
54 2% 5%  
55 0.8% 3%  
56 0.8% 2%  
57 0.2% 1.1%  
58 0.3% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 25% 99.9%  
45 1.3% 75%  
46 3% 73%  
47 8% 71% Median
48 24% 63%  
49 6% 39%  
50 22% 32%  
51 3% 11%  
52 1.3% 8%  
53 2% 6%  
54 2% 5%  
55 0.7% 3% Last Result
56 0.8% 2%  
57 0.2% 1.1%  
58 0.3% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 25% 99.6%  
45 2% 74%  
46 3% 72%  
47 8% 70% Median
48 25% 62%  
49 6% 37%  
50 22% 31%  
51 3% 9%  
52 1.3% 6%  
53 2% 5%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.6% 1.3% Last Result
56 0.5% 0.7%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
35 1.1% 99.7%  
36 4% 98.5%  
37 4% 95%  
38 7% 91%  
39 17% 84%  
40 29% 66% Median
41 19% 37%  
42 10% 18%  
43 3% 8%  
44 1.4% 5%  
45 0.5% 3%  
46 0.6% 3%  
47 1.1% 2%  
48 0.2% 0.9%  
49 0.1% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.5%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.8%  
35 1.1% 99.6%  
36 4% 98.5%  
37 4% 95%  
38 7% 91%  
39 17% 84%  
40 29% 66% Median
41 19% 37%  
42 10% 18%  
43 3% 8%  
44 1.4% 4%  
45 0.5% 3%  
46 0.6% 3%  
47 1.1% 2%  
48 0.2% 0.9%  
49 0.1% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.5%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.7%  
35 1.4% 99.3%  
36 4% 98%  
37 5% 94%  
38 7% 89%  
39 17% 82%  
40 29% 65% Median
41 19% 36%  
42 11% 17%  
43 3% 6%  
44 1.2% 3%  
45 0.4% 1.5%  
46 0.3% 1.1%  
47 0.7% 0.8%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 27% 99.6%  
33 12% 72%  
34 17% 61% Median
35 19% 44%  
36 4% 24%  
37 6% 20%  
38 4% 14% Last Result
39 5% 10%  
40 1.3% 5%  
41 2% 4%  
42 0.5% 2%  
43 0.2% 1.4%  
44 0.8% 1.3%  
45 0.1% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.7%  
32 28% 99.4%  
33 12% 72%  
34 17% 60% Median
35 20% 42%  
36 5% 22%  
37 6% 18%  
38 4% 12% Last Result
39 5% 8%  
40 1.3% 3%  
41 1.2% 2%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0% 0.2%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 1.5% 99.7%  
23 2% 98%  
24 14% 96%  
25 7% 82%  
26 10% 74%  
27 25% 64% Median
28 30% 39%  
29 3% 9%  
30 2% 6%  
31 0.6% 4%  
32 0.8% 3%  
33 1.1% 2%  
34 0.2% 1.3%  
35 0.2% 1.0%  
36 0.4% 0.8%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations