Opinion Poll by NMS, 28 March–2 April 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 18.3% | 22.4% | 20.8–24.1% | 20.3–24.6% | 19.9–25.1% | 19.2–25.9% |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia | 0.0% | 14.2% | 12.9–15.7% | 12.5–16.2% | 12.2–16.5% | 11.6–17.3% |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 7.0% | 12.8% | 11.5–14.2% | 11.2–14.6% | 10.9–15.0% | 10.3–15.7% |
| REPUBLIKA | 0.0% | 9.9% | 8.8–11.2% | 8.5–11.6% | 8.2–11.9% | 7.7–12.6% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.5% |
| SME RODINA | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.1–7.8% |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 25.0% | 5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.6–7.3% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.6–7.1% |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 7.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Slovenská národná strana | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.9% |
| Za ľudí | 5.8% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 8.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.0–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 43 | 42–49 | 38–49 | 38–50 | 37–51 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia | 0 | 28 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–32 | 22–34 |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 0 | 25 | 23–30 | 22–30 | 22–30 | 19–31 |
| REPUBLIKA | 0 | 21 | 17–23 | 15–27 | 15–27 | 15–27 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 0 | 12 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 0–15 | 0–16 |
| SME RODINA | 17 | 12 | 0–14 | 0–14 | 0–14 | 0–15 |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 53 | 10 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 13 | 0 | 0–12 | 0–14 | 0–14 | 0–14 |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenská národná strana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Za ľudí | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 4% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 40 | 1.5% | 94% | |
| 41 | 3% | 93% | |
| 42 | 20% | 90% | |
| 43 | 21% | 70% | Median |
| 44 | 8% | 48% | |
| 45 | 6% | 40% | |
| 46 | 6% | 34% | |
| 47 | 12% | 28% | |
| 48 | 5% | 16% | |
| 49 | 8% | 11% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 24 | 2% | 97% | |
| 25 | 7% | 95% | |
| 26 | 24% | 88% | |
| 27 | 11% | 64% | |
| 28 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 29 | 24% | 45% | |
| 30 | 4% | 22% | |
| 31 | 10% | 18% | |
| 32 | 5% | 7% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Progresívne Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 22 | 4% | 98% | |
| 23 | 19% | 94% | |
| 24 | 7% | 75% | |
| 25 | 26% | 68% | Median |
| 26 | 11% | 41% | |
| 27 | 8% | 30% | |
| 28 | 9% | 22% | |
| 29 | 2% | 13% | |
| 30 | 10% | 11% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
REPUBLIKA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 4% | 94% | |
| 17 | 8% | 90% | |
| 18 | 5% | 83% | |
| 19 | 19% | 78% | |
| 20 | 7% | 58% | |
| 21 | 23% | 52% | Median |
| 22 | 15% | 28% | |
| 23 | 5% | 13% | |
| 24 | 3% | 9% | |
| 25 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 27 | 5% | 5% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0% | 97% | |
| 3 | 0% | 97% | |
| 4 | 0% | 97% | |
| 5 | 0% | 97% | |
| 6 | 0% | 97% | |
| 7 | 0% | 97% | |
| 8 | 0% | 97% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 10 | 4% | 97% | |
| 11 | 15% | 93% | |
| 12 | 56% | 78% | Median |
| 13 | 10% | 22% | |
| 14 | 9% | 12% | |
| 15 | 2% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 82% | |
| 2 | 0% | 82% | |
| 3 | 0% | 82% | |
| 4 | 0% | 82% | |
| 5 | 0% | 82% | |
| 6 | 0% | 82% | |
| 7 | 0% | 82% | |
| 8 | 0% | 82% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 82% | |
| 10 | 5% | 82% | |
| 11 | 14% | 77% | |
| 12 | 49% | 63% | Median |
| 13 | 2% | 13% | |
| 14 | 11% | 12% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 55% | |
| 2 | 0% | 55% | |
| 3 | 0% | 55% | |
| 4 | 0% | 55% | |
| 5 | 0% | 55% | |
| 6 | 0% | 55% | |
| 7 | 0% | 55% | |
| 8 | 0% | 55% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 55% | |
| 10 | 11% | 55% | Median |
| 11 | 7% | 44% | |
| 12 | 34% | 38% | |
| 13 | 3% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sloboda a Solidarita
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 65% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 35% | |
| 2 | 0% | 35% | |
| 3 | 0% | 35% | |
| 4 | 0% | 35% | |
| 5 | 0% | 35% | |
| 6 | 0% | 35% | |
| 7 | 0% | 35% | |
| 8 | 0% | 35% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 35% | |
| 10 | 6% | 34% | |
| 11 | 4% | 28% | |
| 12 | 16% | 24% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | 7% | Last Result |
| 14 | 6% | 6% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenská národná strana
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Za ľudí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 72 | 82 | 83% | 74–90 | 73–91 | 70–92 | 70–92 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 55 | 82 | 83% | 74–90 | 73–91 | 70–92 | 70–92 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 55 | 82 | 83% | 74–90 | 73–91 | 70–92 | 70–92 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 38 | 72 | 21% | 67–78 | 66–78 | 64–80 | 62–82 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 72 | 55 | 0% | 47–60 | 45–61 | 44–61 | 41–63 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 55 | 55 | 0% | 47–60 | 45–61 | 44–61 | 41–63 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 55 | 55 | 0% | 47–60 | 45–61 | 44–61 | 41–63 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 43 | 0% | 42–49 | 38–49 | 38–50 | 37–51 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 38 | 43 | 0% | 42–49 | 38–49 | 38–50 | 37–51 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 34 | 39 | 0% | 27–43 | 27–45 | 25–46 | 25–46 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 17 | 39 | 0% | 27–43 | 27–45 | 25–46 | 25–46 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 17 | 39 | 0% | 27–43 | 27–45 | 25–46 | 25–46 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 0 | 28 | 0% | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–32 | 22–34 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 96% | Last Result |
| 73 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 74 | 11% | 94% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 83% | |
| 76 | 2% | 83% | Majority |
| 77 | 4% | 81% | |
| 78 | 2% | 77% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 75% | |
| 80 | 20% | 74% | |
| 81 | 1.0% | 54% | |
| 82 | 3% | 53% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 50% | Median |
| 84 | 16% | 49% | |
| 85 | 7% | 33% | |
| 86 | 0.9% | 26% | |
| 87 | 7% | 25% | |
| 88 | 4% | 19% | |
| 89 | 3% | 15% | |
| 90 | 6% | 12% | |
| 91 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 92 | 4% | 4% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 73 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 74 | 11% | 94% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 83% | |
| 76 | 2% | 83% | Majority |
| 77 | 4% | 81% | |
| 78 | 2% | 77% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 75% | |
| 80 | 20% | 74% | |
| 81 | 1.0% | 54% | |
| 82 | 3% | 53% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 50% | Median |
| 84 | 16% | 49% | |
| 85 | 7% | 33% | |
| 86 | 0.9% | 26% | |
| 87 | 7% | 25% | |
| 88 | 4% | 19% | |
| 89 | 3% | 15% | |
| 90 | 6% | 12% | |
| 91 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 92 | 4% | 4% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 73 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 74 | 11% | 94% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 83% | |
| 76 | 2% | 83% | Majority |
| 77 | 4% | 81% | |
| 78 | 2% | 77% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 75% | |
| 80 | 20% | 74% | |
| 81 | 1.0% | 54% | |
| 82 | 3% | 53% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 50% | Median |
| 84 | 16% | 49% | |
| 85 | 7% | 33% | |
| 86 | 0.9% | 26% | |
| 87 | 7% | 25% | |
| 88 | 4% | 19% | |
| 89 | 3% | 15% | |
| 90 | 6% | 12% | |
| 91 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 92 | 4% | 4% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 66 | 3% | 95% | |
| 67 | 3% | 92% | |
| 68 | 21% | 89% | |
| 69 | 1.0% | 68% | |
| 70 | 3% | 67% | |
| 71 | 3% | 64% | Median |
| 72 | 16% | 62% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 46% | |
| 74 | 15% | 45% | |
| 75 | 8% | 29% | |
| 76 | 4% | 21% | Majority |
| 77 | 2% | 17% | |
| 78 | 10% | 15% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 80 | 3% | 4% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 43 | 1.5% | 99.3% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 45 | 3% | 97% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 47 | 10% | 94% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 84% | |
| 49 | 6% | 84% | |
| 50 | 2% | 78% | |
| 51 | 2% | 76% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 74% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 73% | |
| 54 | 19% | 72% | |
| 55 | 18% | 53% | Median |
| 56 | 6% | 35% | |
| 57 | 5% | 29% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 24% | |
| 59 | 10% | 23% | |
| 60 | 6% | 13% | |
| 61 | 4% | 7% | |
| 62 | 2% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 43 | 1.5% | 99.3% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 45 | 3% | 97% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 47 | 10% | 94% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 84% | |
| 49 | 6% | 84% | |
| 50 | 2% | 78% | |
| 51 | 2% | 76% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 74% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 73% | |
| 54 | 19% | 72% | |
| 55 | 18% | 53% | Last Result, Median |
| 56 | 6% | 35% | |
| 57 | 5% | 29% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 24% | |
| 59 | 10% | 23% | |
| 60 | 6% | 13% | |
| 61 | 4% | 7% | |
| 62 | 2% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 43 | 1.5% | 99.3% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 45 | 3% | 97% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 47 | 10% | 94% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 84% | |
| 49 | 6% | 84% | |
| 50 | 2% | 78% | |
| 51 | 2% | 76% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 74% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 73% | |
| 54 | 19% | 72% | |
| 55 | 18% | 53% | Last Result, Median |
| 56 | 6% | 35% | |
| 57 | 5% | 29% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 24% | |
| 59 | 10% | 23% | |
| 60 | 6% | 13% | |
| 61 | 4% | 7% | |
| 62 | 2% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 4% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 40 | 1.5% | 94% | |
| 41 | 3% | 93% | |
| 42 | 20% | 90% | |
| 43 | 21% | 70% | Median |
| 44 | 8% | 48% | |
| 45 | 6% | 40% | |
| 46 | 6% | 34% | |
| 47 | 12% | 28% | |
| 48 | 5% | 16% | |
| 49 | 8% | 11% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 4% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 40 | 1.5% | 94% | |
| 41 | 3% | 93% | |
| 42 | 20% | 90% | |
| 43 | 21% | 70% | Median |
| 44 | 8% | 48% | |
| 45 | 6% | 40% | |
| 46 | 6% | 34% | |
| 47 | 12% | 28% | |
| 48 | 5% | 16% | |
| 49 | 8% | 11% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 27 | 9% | 97% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 31 | 2% | 86% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 84% | |
| 33 | 3% | 84% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 81% | Last Result |
| 35 | 2% | 79% | |
| 36 | 2% | 78% | |
| 37 | 6% | 76% | |
| 38 | 19% | 70% | |
| 39 | 7% | 51% | |
| 40 | 3% | 44% | Median |
| 41 | 23% | 42% | |
| 42 | 4% | 18% | |
| 43 | 6% | 14% | |
| 44 | 3% | 8% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 46 | 4% | 4% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 27 | 9% | 97% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 31 | 2% | 86% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 84% | |
| 33 | 3% | 84% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 81% | |
| 35 | 2% | 79% | |
| 36 | 2% | 78% | |
| 37 | 6% | 76% | |
| 38 | 19% | 70% | |
| 39 | 7% | 51% | |
| 40 | 3% | 44% | Median |
| 41 | 23% | 42% | |
| 42 | 4% | 18% | |
| 43 | 6% | 14% | |
| 44 | 3% | 8% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 46 | 4% | 4% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 27 | 9% | 97% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 31 | 2% | 86% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 84% | |
| 33 | 3% | 84% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 81% | |
| 35 | 2% | 79% | |
| 36 | 2% | 78% | |
| 37 | 6% | 76% | |
| 38 | 19% | 70% | |
| 39 | 7% | 51% | |
| 40 | 3% | 44% | Median |
| 41 | 23% | 42% | |
| 42 | 4% | 18% | |
| 43 | 6% | 14% | |
| 44 | 3% | 8% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 46 | 4% | 4% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 24 | 2% | 97% | |
| 25 | 7% | 95% | |
| 26 | 24% | 88% | |
| 27 | 11% | 64% | |
| 28 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 29 | 24% | 45% | |
| 30 | 4% | 22% | |
| 31 | 10% | 18% | |
| 32 | 5% | 7% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NMS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 28 March–2 April 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1018
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.71%