Opinion Poll by Median, 1 April–6 May 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 18.3% 16.3% 15.3–17.4% 15.0–17.8% 14.7–18.0% 14.3–18.6%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia 0.0% 13.9% 12.9–15.0% 12.7–15.3% 12.4–15.5% 12.0–16.0%
Progresívne Slovensko 7.0% 11.6% 10.7–12.6% 10.4–12.8% 10.2–13.1% 9.8–13.6%
SME RODINA 8.2% 9.2% 8.4–10.1% 8.2–10.4% 8.0–10.6% 7.6–11.0%
Sloboda a Solidarita 6.2% 8.2% 7.4–9.0% 7.2–9.3% 7.0–9.5% 6.7–9.9%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 25.0% 7.9% 7.1–8.7% 6.9–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.4–9.6%
REPUBLIKA 0.0% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.6% 6.8% 6.1–7.6% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–8.0% 5.4–8.4%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 7.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
Slovenská národná strana 3.2% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.5–4.7%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 2.5% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.3% 1.7–3.6%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 3.9% 2.5% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.3% 1.7–3.6%
Za ľudí 5.8% 1.8% 1.5–2.3% 1.4–2.4% 1.3–2.5% 1.1–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 29 28–32 28–32 27–33 26–34
HLAS–sociálna demokracia 0 28 24–28 24–28 23–28 22–29
Progresívne Slovensko 0 20 20–23 19–23 19–23 18–25
SME RODINA 17 16 15–19 15–19 14–20 14–20
Sloboda a Solidarita 13 16 14–17 13–18 13–18 12–18
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 53 16 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–17
REPUBLIKA 0 14 11–14 11–14 11–15 11–15
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 12 12–13 11–14 11–15 10–15
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0–9
Slovenská národná strana 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 17 0 0 0 0 0
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0
Za ľudí 12 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.1%  
28 45% 96%  
29 1.5% 51% Median
30 28% 50%  
31 10% 22%  
32 7% 12%  
33 4% 5%  
34 0.5% 0.8%  
35 0% 0.3%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

HLAS–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 4% 99.4%  
24 6% 95%  
25 7% 89%  
26 10% 82%  
27 7% 72%  
28 62% 64% Median
29 2% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.8% 100%  
19 5% 99.1%  
20 44% 94% Median
21 12% 49%  
22 26% 37%  
23 10% 11%  
24 1.3% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 3% 100%  
15 9% 97%  
16 51% 88% Median
17 7% 38% Last Result
18 4% 30%  
19 23% 26%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.7% 100%  
13 7% 99.3% Last Result
14 26% 92%  
15 7% 67%  
16 49% 60% Median
17 3% 11%  
18 8% 8%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 25% 98%  
14 11% 73%  
15 11% 62%  
16 42% 51% Median
17 9% 10%  
18 0.1% 0.4%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

REPUBLIKA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 26% 99.8%  
12 14% 74%  
13 9% 60%  
14 48% 51% Median
15 3% 3%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 100%  
11 5% 98%  
12 53% 93% Median
13 33% 40%  
14 4% 7%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0% 2%  
8 0% 2%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.3%  
5 0% 0.3%  
6 0% 0.3%  
7 0% 0.3%  
8 0% 0.3%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Za ľudí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 72 72 26% 72–77 69–77 69–77 68–78
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 72 26% 72–77 69–77 69–77 68–77
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 55 72 26% 72–77 69–77 69–77 68–78
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 38 56 0% 54–58 53–58 52–58 51–61
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 72 45 0% 44–49 43–50 43–51 42–52
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 45 0% 44–49 43–49 43–51 42–52
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 55 45 0% 44–49 43–50 43–51 42–52
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 34 44 0% 41–47 40–47 39–47 39–48
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 17 44 0% 41–47 40–47 39–47 39–47
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 17 44 0% 41–47 40–47 39–47 39–48
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 29 0% 28–32 28–32 27–33 26–34
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 38 30 0% 28–32 28–33 27–33 26–35
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 0 28 0% 24–28 24–28 23–29 22–29

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.7% 99.7%  
69 5% 99.0%  
70 0.6% 94%  
71 0.8% 94%  
72 59% 93% Last Result
73 3% 34% Median
74 2% 31%  
75 3% 29%  
76 2% 26% Majority
77 24% 24%  
78 0.3% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.4%  
80 0.3% 0.3%  
81 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100% Last Result
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.7% 99.7%  
69 5% 98.9%  
70 0.6% 94%  
71 0.8% 93%  
72 59% 92%  
73 3% 34% Median
74 2% 31%  
75 3% 29%  
76 2% 26% Majority
77 24% 24%  
78 0.1% 0.4%  
79 0% 0.3%  
80 0.3% 0.3%  
81 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100% Last Result
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.7% 99.7%  
69 5% 99.0%  
70 0.6% 94%  
71 0.8% 94%  
72 59% 93%  
73 3% 34% Median
74 2% 31%  
75 3% 29%  
76 2% 26% Majority
77 24% 24%  
78 0.3% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.4%  
80 0.3% 0.3%  
81 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0.5% 99.9%  
52 2% 99.5%  
53 5% 97%  
54 4% 93%  
55 2% 89%  
56 48% 87%  
57 8% 40% Median
58 29% 31%  
59 0.5% 2%  
60 0.7% 2%  
61 0.9% 1.2%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.3% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 5% 99.4%  
44 40% 94%  
45 4% 54% Median
46 6% 49%  
47 7% 44%  
48 6% 37%  
49 26% 32%  
50 2% 5%  
51 0.7% 3%  
52 2% 2%  
53 0.1% 0.4%  
54 0% 0.3%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.3% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 5% 99.4%  
44 40% 94%  
45 4% 54% Median
46 6% 49%  
47 7% 44%  
48 6% 37%  
49 26% 31%  
50 2% 5%  
51 0.7% 3%  
52 2% 2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.3% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 5% 99.4%  
44 40% 94%  
45 4% 54% Median
46 6% 49%  
47 7% 44%  
48 6% 37%  
49 26% 32%  
50 2% 5%  
51 0.7% 3%  
52 2% 2%  
53 0.1% 0.4%  
54 0% 0.3%  
55 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
56 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.3% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.7%  
39 3% 99.5%  
40 5% 97%  
41 9% 92%  
42 9% 83%  
43 3% 75%  
44 47% 72% Median
45 2% 25%  
46 2% 24%  
47 21% 21%  
48 0.4% 0.7%  
49 0% 0.3%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.3% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.7%  
39 3% 99.5%  
40 5% 97%  
41 9% 92%  
42 9% 83%  
43 3% 74%  
44 47% 72% Median
45 2% 25%  
46 2% 23%  
47 21% 21%  
48 0.4% 0.4%  
49 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.3% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.7%  
39 3% 99.5%  
40 5% 97%  
41 9% 92%  
42 9% 83%  
43 3% 75%  
44 47% 72% Median
45 2% 25%  
46 2% 24%  
47 21% 21%  
48 0.4% 0.7%  
49 0% 0.3%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.1%  
28 45% 96%  
29 1.5% 51% Median
30 28% 50%  
31 10% 22%  
32 7% 12%  
33 4% 5%  
34 0.5% 0.8%  
35 0% 0.3%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.1%  
28 44% 96%  
29 1.5% 52% Median
30 28% 50%  
31 10% 22%  
32 7% 12%  
33 4% 5%  
34 0.5% 1.1%  
35 0.1% 0.5%  
36 0.2% 0.5%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 4% 99.5%  
24 6% 95%  
25 7% 89%  
26 10% 82%  
27 7% 72%  
28 62% 65% Median
29 2% 3%  
30 0.1% 0.4%  
31 0% 0.3%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

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