Opinion Poll by NMS, 4–9 July 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 18.3% 20.6% 19.3–22.0% 18.9–22.4% 18.6–22.8% 17.9–23.5%
Progresívne Slovensko 7.0% 15.6% 14.4–16.9% 14.1–17.2% 13.8–17.6% 13.2–18.2%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba 0.0% 11.4% 10.4–12.6% 10.1–12.9% 9.8–13.2% 9.4–13.7%
REPUBLIKA 0.0% 10.3% 9.4–11.4% 9.1–11.8% 8.8–12.0% 8.4–12.6%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí 0.0% 6.9% 6.1–7.8% 5.8–8.1% 5.7–8.3% 5.3–8.8%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.6% 5.7% 5.0–6.6% 4.8–6.9% 4.6–7.1% 4.3–7.5%
SME RODINA 8.2% 5.3% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.4% 4.3–6.6% 3.9–7.0%
Sloboda a Solidarita 6.2% 4.7% 4.0–5.5% 3.8–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.4–6.3%
Slovenská národná strana 3.2% 4.6% 3.9–5.4% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.8% 3.3–6.2%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 3.9% 3.4% 2.9–4.1% 2.7–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.3–4.8%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 2.9% 2.4–3.6% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 1.9–4.3%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 7.0% 2.8% 2.3–3.5% 2.2–3.7% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.2%
MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.3%
Magyar Fórum 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 40 37–46 37–48 35–49 34–49
Progresívne Slovensko 0 31 26–34 25–36 25–39 24–39
HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba 0 23 20–27 20–27 19–28 17–29
REPUBLIKA 0 20 18–25 16–26 16–26 16–27
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí 0 14 12–16 11–16 11–17 10–17
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 11 0–13 0–14 0–14 0–14
SME RODINA 17 10 0–12 0–12 0–13 0–15
Sloboda a Solidarita 13 0 0–9 0–11 0–11 0–12
Slovenská národná strana 0 0 0–10 0–10 0–11 0–12
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 17 0 0 0 0 0
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0
MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD 0 0 0 0 0 0
Magyar Fórum 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 1.5% 97%  
37 20% 96%  
38 6% 76% Last Result
39 2% 69%  
40 18% 67% Median
41 18% 49%  
42 8% 31%  
43 9% 24%  
44 0.6% 15%  
45 0.9% 14%  
46 4% 13%  
47 3% 9%  
48 1.2% 6%  
49 4% 5%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.3% 100%  
24 2% 99.7%  
25 5% 98%  
26 3% 92%  
27 4% 90%  
28 3% 86%  
29 7% 83%  
30 26% 76%  
31 5% 50% Median
32 18% 46%  
33 9% 28%  
34 12% 19%  
35 3% 8%  
36 0.6% 5%  
37 0.1% 4%  
38 0.3% 4%  
39 4% 4%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 2% 100%  
18 0.4% 98%  
19 2% 98%  
20 6% 96%  
21 10% 90%  
22 12% 80%  
23 34% 67% Median
24 8% 33%  
25 5% 26%  
26 3% 21%  
27 14% 17%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.8% 0.9%  
30 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9%  
16 5% 99.5%  
17 1.4% 94%  
18 16% 93%  
19 23% 76%  
20 17% 53% Median
21 15% 36%  
22 1.2% 21%  
23 9% 20%  
24 1.1% 11%  
25 5% 10%  
26 4% 6%  
27 1.2% 1.2%  
28 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0% 99.7%  
7 0% 99.7%  
8 0% 99.7%  
9 0% 99.7%  
10 2% 99.7%  
11 8% 98%  
12 4% 91%  
13 14% 86%  
14 45% 72% Median
15 15% 27%  
16 8% 12%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100% Last Result
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 0% 87%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0% 87%  
7 0% 87%  
8 0% 87%  
9 0.6% 87%  
10 12% 86%  
11 35% 74% Median
12 18% 39%  
13 12% 22%  
14 9% 9%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100%  
1 0% 71%  
2 0% 71%  
3 0% 71%  
4 0% 71%  
5 0% 71%  
6 0% 71%  
7 0% 71%  
8 0% 71%  
9 2% 71%  
10 33% 69% Median
11 15% 36%  
12 18% 21%  
13 1.3% 3%  
14 0.5% 2%  
15 1.0% 1.0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Median
1 0% 15%  
2 0% 15%  
3 0% 15%  
4 0% 15%  
5 0% 15%  
6 0% 15%  
7 0% 15%  
8 0% 15%  
9 5% 15%  
10 2% 9%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.8% 0.9%  
13 0% 0.1% Last Result
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 16%  
2 0% 16%  
3 0% 16%  
4 0% 16%  
5 0% 16%  
6 0% 16%  
7 0% 16%  
8 0% 16%  
9 2% 16%  
10 9% 13%  
11 3% 4%  
12 1.5% 2%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.2%  
9 0% 0.2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0% 0.4%  
5 0% 0.4%  
6 0% 0.4%  
7 0% 0.4%  
8 0% 0.4%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Magyar Fórum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Fórum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 72 50 0% 45–57 38–61 37–61 37–63
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 55 50 0% 45–57 38–61 37–61 37–63
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 50 0% 38–55 38–55 37–56 37–60
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 38 41 0% 37–49 37–50 37–51 36–53
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 40 0% 37–46 37–48 35–49 34–49

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.3% 100%  
37 4% 99.7%  
38 0.2% 95%  
39 0.1% 95%  
40 0.4% 95%  
41 0.1% 94%  
42 3% 94%  
43 0.4% 91%  
44 0.3% 91%  
45 1.3% 90%  
46 4% 89%  
47 3% 85%  
48 13% 82%  
49 13% 69%  
50 15% 55% Median
51 18% 40%  
52 0.8% 22%  
53 2% 22%  
54 0.4% 20%  
55 8% 19%  
56 0.4% 11%  
57 2% 11%  
58 1.1% 8%  
59 0.5% 7%  
60 0.9% 6%  
61 3% 6%  
62 0% 2%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.2%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.3% 100%  
37 4% 99.7%  
38 0.2% 95%  
39 0.1% 95%  
40 0.4% 95%  
41 0.1% 94%  
42 3% 94%  
43 0.4% 91%  
44 0.4% 91%  
45 1.3% 90%  
46 4% 89%  
47 3% 85%  
48 13% 82%  
49 13% 69%  
50 15% 55% Median
51 18% 40%  
52 0.8% 22%  
53 2% 22%  
54 0.4% 20%  
55 8% 19% Last Result
56 0.4% 11%  
57 2% 11%  
58 1.1% 8%  
59 0.5% 7%  
60 0.9% 6%  
61 3% 6%  
62 0% 2%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.2%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 5% 99.6%  
38 5% 95%  
39 1.0% 90%  
40 0.9% 89%  
41 0.3% 88%  
42 3% 88%  
43 0.7% 85%  
44 0.7% 84%  
45 1.4% 83%  
46 6% 82%  
47 3% 76%  
48 8% 72%  
49 14% 64%  
50 15% 50% Median
51 20% 35%  
52 0.7% 15%  
53 2% 15%  
54 2% 13%  
55 8% 11% Last Result
56 0.4% 3%  
57 0.3% 2%  
58 0.6% 2%  
59 0.5% 2%  
60 0.5% 1.0%  
61 0.5% 0.5%  
62 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 1.4% 99.6%  
37 19% 98%  
38 1.4% 79% Last Result
39 0.9% 77%  
40 15% 77% Median
41 18% 62%  
42 6% 44%  
43 9% 39%  
44 0.4% 30%  
45 1.3% 30%  
46 6% 28%  
47 4% 22%  
48 6% 18%  
49 5% 12%  
50 3% 7%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.1% 2%  
53 0.2% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.5%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 1.5% 97%  
37 20% 96%  
38 6% 76% Last Result
39 2% 69%  
40 18% 67% Median
41 18% 49%  
42 8% 31%  
43 9% 24%  
44 0.6% 15%  
45 0.9% 14%  
46 4% 13%  
47 3% 9%  
48 1.2% 6%  
49 4% 5%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations