Opinion Poll by NMS, 4–9 July 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
SMER–sociálna demokracia |
18.3% |
20.6% |
19.3–22.0% |
18.9–22.4% |
18.6–22.8% |
17.9–23.5% |
Progresívne Slovensko |
7.0% |
15.6% |
14.4–16.9% |
14.1–17.2% |
13.8–17.6% |
13.2–18.2% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba |
0.0% |
11.4% |
10.4–12.6% |
10.1–12.9% |
9.8–13.2% |
9.4–13.7% |
REPUBLIKA |
0.0% |
10.3% |
9.4–11.4% |
9.1–11.8% |
8.8–12.0% |
8.4–12.6% |
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí |
0.0% |
6.9% |
6.1–7.8% |
5.8–8.1% |
5.7–8.3% |
5.3–8.8% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie |
4.6% |
5.7% |
5.0–6.6% |
4.8–6.9% |
4.6–7.1% |
4.3–7.5% |
SME RODINA |
8.2% |
5.3% |
4.6–6.2% |
4.4–6.4% |
4.3–6.6% |
3.9–7.0% |
Sloboda a Solidarita |
6.2% |
4.7% |
4.0–5.5% |
3.8–5.7% |
3.7–5.9% |
3.4–6.3% |
Slovenská národná strana |
3.2% |
4.6% |
3.9–5.4% |
3.8–5.6% |
3.6–5.8% |
3.3–6.2% |
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja |
3.9% |
3.4% |
2.9–4.1% |
2.7–4.3% |
2.6–4.5% |
2.3–4.8% |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko |
8.0% |
2.9% |
2.4–3.6% |
2.3–3.7% |
2.1–3.9% |
1.9–4.3% |
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia |
7.0% |
2.8% |
2.3–3.5% |
2.2–3.7% |
2.1–3.8% |
1.9–4.2% |
MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD |
0.0% |
1.3% |
1.0–1.8% |
0.9–1.9% |
0.8–2.0% |
0.7–2.3% |
Magyar Fórum |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
SMER–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
36 |
1.5% |
97% |
|
37 |
20% |
96% |
|
38 |
6% |
76% |
Last Result |
39 |
2% |
69% |
|
40 |
18% |
67% |
Median |
41 |
18% |
49% |
|
42 |
8% |
31% |
|
43 |
9% |
24% |
|
44 |
0.6% |
15% |
|
45 |
0.9% |
14% |
|
46 |
4% |
13% |
|
47 |
3% |
9% |
|
48 |
1.2% |
6% |
|
49 |
4% |
5% |
|
50 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
Progresívne Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
25 |
5% |
98% |
|
26 |
3% |
92% |
|
27 |
4% |
90% |
|
28 |
3% |
86% |
|
29 |
7% |
83% |
|
30 |
26% |
76% |
|
31 |
5% |
50% |
Median |
32 |
18% |
46% |
|
33 |
9% |
28% |
|
34 |
12% |
19% |
|
35 |
3% |
8% |
|
36 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
38 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
39 |
4% |
4% |
|
40 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
19 |
2% |
98% |
|
20 |
6% |
96% |
|
21 |
10% |
90% |
|
22 |
12% |
80% |
|
23 |
34% |
67% |
Median |
24 |
8% |
33% |
|
25 |
5% |
26% |
|
26 |
3% |
21% |
|
27 |
14% |
17% |
|
28 |
2% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
REPUBLIKA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
5% |
99.5% |
|
17 |
1.4% |
94% |
|
18 |
16% |
93% |
|
19 |
23% |
76% |
|
20 |
17% |
53% |
Median |
21 |
15% |
36% |
|
22 |
1.2% |
21% |
|
23 |
9% |
20% |
|
24 |
1.1% |
11% |
|
25 |
5% |
10% |
|
26 |
4% |
6% |
|
27 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
3 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
4 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
5 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
7 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
8 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
9 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
10 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
11 |
8% |
98% |
|
12 |
4% |
91% |
|
13 |
14% |
86% |
|
14 |
45% |
72% |
Median |
15 |
15% |
27% |
|
16 |
8% |
12% |
|
17 |
3% |
3% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
13% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
87% |
|
2 |
0% |
87% |
|
3 |
0% |
87% |
|
4 |
0% |
87% |
|
5 |
0% |
87% |
|
6 |
0% |
87% |
|
7 |
0% |
87% |
|
8 |
0% |
87% |
|
9 |
0.6% |
87% |
|
10 |
12% |
86% |
|
11 |
35% |
74% |
Median |
12 |
18% |
39% |
|
13 |
12% |
22% |
|
14 |
9% |
9% |
|
15 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
16 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
SME RODINA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
29% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
71% |
|
2 |
0% |
71% |
|
3 |
0% |
71% |
|
4 |
0% |
71% |
|
5 |
0% |
71% |
|
6 |
0% |
71% |
|
7 |
0% |
71% |
|
8 |
0% |
71% |
|
9 |
2% |
71% |
|
10 |
33% |
69% |
Median |
11 |
15% |
36% |
|
12 |
18% |
21% |
|
13 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
14 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
15 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sloboda a Solidarita
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
85% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
15% |
|
2 |
0% |
15% |
|
3 |
0% |
15% |
|
4 |
0% |
15% |
|
5 |
0% |
15% |
|
6 |
0% |
15% |
|
7 |
0% |
15% |
|
8 |
0% |
15% |
|
9 |
5% |
15% |
|
10 |
2% |
9% |
|
11 |
6% |
7% |
|
12 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
13 |
0% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Slovenská národná strana
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
84% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
16% |
|
2 |
0% |
16% |
|
3 |
0% |
16% |
|
4 |
0% |
16% |
|
5 |
0% |
16% |
|
6 |
0% |
16% |
|
7 |
0% |
16% |
|
8 |
0% |
16% |
|
9 |
2% |
16% |
|
10 |
9% |
13% |
|
11 |
3% |
4% |
|
12 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.8% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.6% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
4 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
6 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
7 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
8 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
9 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Magyar Fórum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Fórum page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko |
72 |
50 |
0% |
45–57 |
38–61 |
37–61 |
37–63 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana |
55 |
50 |
0% |
45–57 |
38–61 |
37–61 |
37–63 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA |
55 |
50 |
0% |
38–55 |
38–55 |
37–56 |
37–60 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana |
38 |
41 |
0% |
37–49 |
37–50 |
37–51 |
36–53 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia |
38 |
40 |
0% |
37–46 |
37–48 |
35–49 |
34–49 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
37 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
42 |
3% |
94% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
91% |
|
44 |
0.3% |
91% |
|
45 |
1.3% |
90% |
|
46 |
4% |
89% |
|
47 |
3% |
85% |
|
48 |
13% |
82% |
|
49 |
13% |
69% |
|
50 |
15% |
55% |
Median |
51 |
18% |
40% |
|
52 |
0.8% |
22% |
|
53 |
2% |
22% |
|
54 |
0.4% |
20% |
|
55 |
8% |
19% |
|
56 |
0.4% |
11% |
|
57 |
2% |
11% |
|
58 |
1.1% |
8% |
|
59 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
60 |
0.9% |
6% |
|
61 |
3% |
6% |
|
62 |
0% |
2% |
|
63 |
2% |
2% |
|
64 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
66 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
67 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
68 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
69 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
37 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
42 |
3% |
94% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
91% |
|
44 |
0.4% |
91% |
|
45 |
1.3% |
90% |
|
46 |
4% |
89% |
|
47 |
3% |
85% |
|
48 |
13% |
82% |
|
49 |
13% |
69% |
|
50 |
15% |
55% |
Median |
51 |
18% |
40% |
|
52 |
0.8% |
22% |
|
53 |
2% |
22% |
|
54 |
0.4% |
20% |
|
55 |
8% |
19% |
Last Result |
56 |
0.4% |
11% |
|
57 |
2% |
11% |
|
58 |
1.1% |
8% |
|
59 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
60 |
0.9% |
6% |
|
61 |
3% |
6% |
|
62 |
0% |
2% |
|
63 |
2% |
2% |
|
64 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
66 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
67 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
68 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
69 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
38 |
5% |
95% |
|
39 |
1.0% |
90% |
|
40 |
0.9% |
89% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
88% |
|
42 |
3% |
88% |
|
43 |
0.7% |
85% |
|
44 |
0.7% |
84% |
|
45 |
1.4% |
83% |
|
46 |
6% |
82% |
|
47 |
3% |
76% |
|
48 |
8% |
72% |
|
49 |
14% |
64% |
|
50 |
15% |
50% |
Median |
51 |
20% |
35% |
|
52 |
0.7% |
15% |
|
53 |
2% |
15% |
|
54 |
2% |
13% |
|
55 |
8% |
11% |
Last Result |
56 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
57 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
58 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
59 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
60 |
0.5% |
1.0% |
|
61 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
1.4% |
99.6% |
|
37 |
19% |
98% |
|
38 |
1.4% |
79% |
Last Result |
39 |
0.9% |
77% |
|
40 |
15% |
77% |
Median |
41 |
18% |
62% |
|
42 |
6% |
44% |
|
43 |
9% |
39% |
|
44 |
0.4% |
30% |
|
45 |
1.3% |
30% |
|
46 |
6% |
28% |
|
47 |
4% |
22% |
|
48 |
6% |
18% |
|
49 |
5% |
12% |
|
50 |
3% |
7% |
|
51 |
2% |
4% |
|
52 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
54 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
55 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
SMER–sociálna demokracia

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
36 |
1.5% |
97% |
|
37 |
20% |
96% |
|
38 |
6% |
76% |
Last Result |
39 |
2% |
69% |
|
40 |
18% |
67% |
Median |
41 |
18% |
49% |
|
42 |
8% |
31% |
|
43 |
9% |
24% |
|
44 |
0.6% |
15% |
|
45 |
0.9% |
14% |
|
46 |
4% |
13% |
|
47 |
3% |
9% |
|
48 |
1.2% |
6% |
|
49 |
4% |
5% |
|
50 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NMS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4–9 July 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1413
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.95%