Opinion Poll by AKO, 10–17 July 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 18.3% 18.1% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.2% 15.8–20.6% 15.2–21.4%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba 0.0% 16.5% 15.1–18.1% 14.7–18.5% 14.3–18.9% 13.7–19.7%
Progresívne Slovensko 7.0% 15.4% 14.0–16.9% 13.6–17.4% 13.3–17.8% 12.7–18.5%
Sloboda a Solidarita 6.2% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí 0.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
REPUBLIKA 0.0% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
SME RODINA 8.2% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.6% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Slovenská národná strana 3.2% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 7.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 3.9% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 31 29–36 26–36 26–36 26–38
HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba 0 27 24–33 24–33 24–34 23–36
Progresívne Slovensko 0 27 24–30 24–31 23–31 22–33
Sloboda a Solidarita 13 14 11–15 11–16 11–16 10–18
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí 0 13 11–15 11–15 10–16 9–16
REPUBLIKA 0 12 10–14 10–15 10–16 0–16
SME RODINA 17 11 9–13 9–13 0–13 0–15
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 10 9–12 0–12 0–13 0–14
Slovenská národná strana 0 9 0–9 0–10 0–11 0–12
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 17 0 0 0 0 0
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 6% 99.9%  
27 0.6% 94%  
28 1.1% 94%  
29 13% 93%  
30 4% 79%  
31 30% 75% Median
32 6% 45%  
33 11% 39%  
34 9% 28%  
35 4% 19%  
36 14% 15%  
37 0.4% 1.0%  
38 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
39 0.1% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 100%  
23 0.9% 99.7%  
24 12% 98.8%  
25 7% 86%  
26 11% 80%  
27 20% 69% Median
28 21% 49%  
29 5% 27%  
30 7% 23%  
31 3% 16%  
32 2% 13%  
33 7% 11%  
34 1.4% 4%  
35 0.4% 2%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 1.5% 99.5%  
23 2% 98%  
24 14% 96%  
25 12% 82%  
26 12% 70%  
27 23% 58% Median
28 14% 35%  
29 10% 21%  
30 3% 11%  
31 5% 7%  
32 1.1% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.8%  
34 0.2% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 1.5% 99.7%  
11 9% 98%  
12 17% 90%  
13 6% 72% Last Result
14 42% 66% Median
15 16% 24%  
16 7% 9%  
17 0.8% 2%  
18 0.7% 0.8%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0% 99.7%  
7 0% 99.7%  
8 0% 99.7%  
9 0.3% 99.7%  
10 3% 99.4%  
11 13% 96%  
12 29% 84%  
13 27% 54% Median
14 8% 27%  
15 15% 19%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0.2% 0.4%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0% 99.4%  
4 0% 99.4%  
5 0% 99.4%  
6 0% 99.4%  
7 0% 99.4%  
8 0.1% 99.4%  
9 1.1% 99.4%  
10 19% 98%  
11 9% 79%  
12 25% 70% Median
13 33% 45%  
14 5% 12%  
15 3% 7%  
16 4% 5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 0.1% 96%  
9 17% 96%  
10 23% 79%  
11 9% 56% Median
12 32% 47%  
13 14% 15%  
14 0.5% 1.3%  
15 0.8% 0.9%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0% 94%  
7 0% 94%  
8 0.5% 94%  
9 30% 94%  
10 33% 64% Median
11 17% 30%  
12 10% 13%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.9% 1.0%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result
1 0% 51%  
2 0% 51%  
3 0% 51%  
4 0% 51%  
5 0% 51%  
6 0% 51%  
7 0% 51%  
8 0.7% 51%  
9 41% 50% Median
10 4% 9%  
11 3% 5%  
12 1.4% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 72 47 0% 42–52 41–53 39–54 35–56
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 55 47 0% 42–52 41–53 39–54 35–56
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 43 0% 39–46 39–47 35–47 33–49
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 38 36 0% 31–41 31–43 30–44 28–45
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 31 0% 29–36 26–36 26–36 26–38

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 1.1% 99.5%  
37 0.1% 98%  
38 0.1% 98%  
39 1.0% 98%  
40 0.5% 97%  
41 5% 97%  
42 3% 92%  
43 8% 89%  
44 0.9% 81%  
45 21% 80%  
46 3% 59%  
47 6% 56%  
48 13% 50%  
49 1.4% 37%  
50 12% 35%  
51 2% 23% Median
52 16% 21%  
53 1.5% 5%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.5% 1.4%  
56 0.4% 0.8%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 1.1% 99.5%  
37 0.1% 98%  
38 0.1% 98%  
39 1.0% 98%  
40 0.5% 97%  
41 5% 97%  
42 3% 92%  
43 8% 89%  
44 0.9% 81%  
45 21% 80%  
46 3% 59%  
47 6% 56%  
48 13% 50%  
49 1.4% 37%  
50 12% 35%  
51 2% 23% Median
52 16% 21%  
53 1.5% 5%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.5% 1.4% Last Result
56 0.4% 0.8%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 0.1% 99.6%  
33 0.1% 99.5%  
34 1.5% 99.5%  
35 0.6% 98%  
36 1.3% 97%  
37 0.6% 96%  
38 0.4% 95%  
39 14% 95%  
40 3% 81%  
41 18% 79%  
42 4% 61% Median
43 22% 57%  
44 1.0% 35%  
45 23% 34%  
46 3% 11%  
47 6% 8%  
48 0.7% 2%  
49 0.8% 1.3%  
50 0.2% 0.4%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.7%  
29 0.7% 99.4%  
30 3% 98.7%  
31 9% 96%  
32 2% 87%  
33 10% 85%  
34 7% 75%  
35 8% 68%  
36 14% 60%  
37 0.6% 46%  
38 12% 45% Last Result
39 2% 33%  
40 20% 32% Median
41 4% 12%  
42 2% 8%  
43 4% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.6% 1.0%  
46 0.2% 0.5%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 6% 99.9%  
27 0.6% 94%  
28 1.1% 94%  
29 13% 93%  
30 4% 79%  
31 30% 75% Median
32 6% 45%  
33 11% 39%  
34 9% 28%  
35 4% 19%  
36 14% 15%  
37 0.4% 1.0%  
38 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
39 0.1% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations