Opinion Poll by Алфа рисърч, 17–23 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Прогресивна България (NI) 0.0% 46.8% 44.7–49.0% 44.1–49.6% 43.6–50.1% 42.6–51.2%
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 14.8% 13.3–16.4% 12.9–16.8% 12.6–17.2% 11.9–18.0%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.0% 5.9–9.4% 5.4–10.0%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 6.9% 5.9–8.1% 5.6–8.4% 5.4–8.7% 5.0–9.3%
Движение за права и свободи (ECR) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.7–7.3% 4.5–7.6% 4.1–8.2%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 4.5% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.8% 3.3–6.1% 3.0–6.6%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 3.2% 2.5–4.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 1.9–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Прогресивна България (NI) 0 9 8–9 8–9 8–10 8–10
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Демократична България (EPP) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Движение за права и свободи (ECR) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Възраждане (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Прогресивна България (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Прогресивна България (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 28% 99.9%  
9 67% 72% Median, Majority
10 5% 5%  
11 0% 0%  

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 12% 100%  
3 87% 88% Median
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 45% 100%  
2 55% 55% Median
3 0% 0%  

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 73% 100% Median
2 27% 27%  
3 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Last Result
1 49% 50% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations