Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 30 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | ГЕРБ | БСП | ДПС | ОП | ВМРО | НФСБ | Атака | РБ | Воля | ДБ | ДСБ | Да | АБВ | ИТН | В | ИС.Б | РзБ | Воля–НФСБ | БП | ПП | БВ | НДСВ | Лев |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
26 May 2019 | General Election | 30.4% 6 |
18.9% 4 |
17.3% 4 |
10.7% 2 |
10.7% 1 |
10.7% 1 |
10.7% 0 |
6.4% 1 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
10.7% 1 |
10.7% 1 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
N/A | Poll Average | 23–33% 4–6 |
7–11% 1–2 |
12–17% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
2–5% 0–1 |
N/A N/A |
3–6% 0–1 |
N/A N/A |
2–6% 0–1 |
11–17% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
9–15% 2–3 |
1–3% 0 |
N/A N/A |
1–3% 0 |
29 April–9 May 2024 | Маркет ЛИНКС | 28–34% 5–6 |
8–12% 1–2 |
12–16% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
3–5% 0–1 |
N/A N/A |
4–7% 0–1 |
N/A N/A |
2–4% 0 |
11–15% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
11–15% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
28 April–5 May 2024 | Алфа рисърч | 23–28% 4–5 |
6–10% 1–2 |
12–17% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
2–4% 0–1 |
N/A N/A |
3–6% 0–1 |
N/A N/A |
4–6% 0–1 |
13–17% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
9–13% 2–3 |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
1–3% 0 |
12–19 April 2024 | Тренд 24 часа |
25–30% 4–5 |
8–11% 1–2 |
13–18% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
2–4% 0–1 |
N/A N/A |
3–5% 0–1 |
N/A N/A |
4–7% 0–1 |
13–18% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
9–12% 2–3 |
1–3% 0 |
N/A N/A |
1–3% 0 |
26 May 2019 | General Election | 30.4% 6 |
18.9% 4 |
17.3% 4 |
10.7% 2 |
10.7% 1 |
10.7% 1 |
10.7% 0 |
6.4% 1 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
10.7% 1 |
10.7% 1 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the European Parliament (95% confidence interval)
- ГЕРБ: Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)
- БСП: Българска социалистическа партия (S&D)
- ДПС: Движение за права и свободи (RE)
- ОП: Обединени Патриоти (ECR)
- ВМРО: ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение (ECR)
- НФСБ: Национален фронт за спасение на България (*)
- Атака: Атака (NI)
- РБ: Реформаторски блок (EPP)
- Воля: Воля (ID)
- ДБ: Демократична България (EPP)
- ДСБ: Демократи за силна България (EPP)
- Да: Да, България! (EPP)
- АБВ: Алтернатива за българско възраждане (S&D)
- ИТН: Има такъв народ (ECR)
- В: Възраждане (NI)
- ИС.Б: Изправи се Бг (EPP)
- РзБ: Републиканци за България (*)
- Воля–НФСБ: Воля–Национален фронт за спасение на България (ID)
- БП: Българските патриоти (ECR)
- ПП: Продължаваме промяната (RE)
- БВ: Български възход (NI)
- НДСВ: Национално движение за стабилност и възход (RE)
- Лев: Левицата! (*)
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) | 30.4% | 27.4% | 24.3–31.6% | 23.7–32.4% | 23.2–33.0% | 22.2–34.1% |
Българска социалистическа партия (S&D) | 18.9% | 9.1% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.2–11.0% | 6.9–11.4% | 6.3–12.1% |
Движение за права и свободи (RE) | 17.3% | 14.5% | 12.9–16.3% | 12.5–16.8% | 12.1–17.2% | 11.4–18.0% |
Обединени Патриоти (ECR) | 10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение (ECR) | 10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Национален фронт за спасение на България (*) | 10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Атака (NI) | 10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Воля–Национален фронт за спасение на България (ID) | 10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Българските патриоти (ECR) | 10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Реформаторски блок (EPP) | 6.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Воля (ID) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Демократична България (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.5–4.2% | 2.3–4.4% | 2.2–4.7% | 1.9–5.2% |
Демократи за силна България (EPP) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Да, България! (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.6–5.6% | 3.3–5.9% | 3.1–6.2% | 2.8–6.8% |
Алтернатива за българско възраждане (S&D) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Има такъв народ (ECR) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 2.7–5.8% | 2.4–6.1% | 2.2–6.3% | 1.9–6.9% |
Възраждане (NI) | 0.0% | 14.5% | 12.3–16.3% | 11.8–16.8% | 11.4–17.2% | 10.7–18.0% |
Изправи се Бг (EPP) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Републиканци за България (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Продължаваме промяната (RE) | 0.0% | 11.4% | 9.7–13.6% | 9.3–14.1% | 8.9–14.6% | 8.3–15.4% |
Български възход (NI) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.8–2.7% | 0.6–3.0% |
Национално движение за стабилност и възход (RE) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Левицата! (*) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.0–3.3% |
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
19.5–20.5% | 0% | 100% | |
20.5–21.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
21.5–22.5% | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
22.5–23.5% | 3% | 99.1% | |
23.5–24.5% | 8% | 96% | |
24.5–25.5% | 12% | 88% | |
25.5–26.5% | 14% | 76% | |
26.5–27.5% | 13% | 62% | Median |
27.5–28.5% | 11% | 48% | |
28.5–29.5% | 9% | 38% | |
29.5–30.5% | 9% | 29% | Last Result |
30.5–31.5% | 9% | 19% | |
31.5–32.5% | 6% | 10% | |
32.5–33.5% | 3% | 4% | |
33.5–34.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
34.5–35.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
35.5–36.5% | 0% | 0% |
Българска социалистическа партия (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Българска социалистическа партия (S&D) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
5.5–6.5% | 1.0% | 100% | |
6.5–7.5% | 9% | 98.9% | |
7.5–8.5% | 23% | 90% | |
8.5–9.5% | 32% | 68% | Median |
9.5–10.5% | 25% | 36% | |
10.5–11.5% | 9% | 11% | |
11.5–12.5% | 2% | 2% | |
12.5–13.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
13.5–14.5% | 0% | 0% | |
14.5–15.5% | 0% | 0% | |
15.5–16.5% | 0% | 0% | |
16.5–17.5% | 0% | 0% | |
17.5–18.5% | 0% | 0% | |
18.5–19.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Движение за права и свободи (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи (RE) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
10.5–11.5% | 0.7% | 100% | |
11.5–12.5% | 5% | 99.3% | |
12.5–13.5% | 17% | 94% | |
13.5–14.5% | 28% | 78% | |
14.5–15.5% | 27% | 50% | Median |
15.5–16.5% | 16% | 23% | |
16.5–17.5% | 6% | 7% | Last Result |
17.5–18.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
18.5–19.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
19.5–20.5% | 0% | 0% |
Има такъв народ (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 7% | 100% | |
2.5–3.5% | 22% | 92% | |
3.5–4.5% | 21% | 71% | |
4.5–5.5% | 35% | 50% | Median |
5.5–6.5% | 14% | 15% | |
6.5–7.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% | |
8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% |
Възраждане (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (NI) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
9.5–10.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
10.5–11.5% | 3% | 99.7% | |
11.5–12.5% | 9% | 97% | |
12.5–13.5% | 17% | 87% | |
13.5–14.5% | 23% | 71% | Median |
14.5–15.5% | 24% | 48% | |
15.5–16.5% | 16% | 23% | |
16.5–17.5% | 6% | 7% | |
17.5–18.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
18.5–19.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
19.5–20.5% | 0% | 0% |
Продължаваме промяната (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
7.5–8.5% | 0.9% | 100% | |
8.5–9.5% | 7% | 99.1% | |
9.5–10.5% | 21% | 92% | |
10.5–11.5% | 26% | 71% | Median |
11.5–12.5% | 20% | 45% | |
12.5–13.5% | 15% | 25% | |
13.5–14.5% | 8% | 10% | |
14.5–15.5% | 2% | 3% | |
15.5–16.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
16.5–17.5% | 0% | 0% |
Да, България! (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
2.5–3.5% | 10% | 99.9% | |
3.5–4.5% | 44% | 90% | Median |
4.5–5.5% | 35% | 46% | |
5.5–6.5% | 10% | 11% | |
6.5–7.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% |
Демократична България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 11% | 100% | |
2.5–3.5% | 56% | 89% | Median |
3.5–4.5% | 29% | 33% | |
4.5–5.5% | 4% | 4% | |
5.5–6.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% |
Български възход (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Български възход (NI) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 50% | 99.8% | |
1.5–2.5% | 46% | 50% | Median |
2.5–3.5% | 4% | 4% | |
3.5–4.5% | 0% | 0% |
Левицата! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Левицата! (*) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 19% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 72% | 81% | Median |
2.5–3.5% | 9% | 9% | |
3.5–4.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
4.5–5.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
4 | 23% | 100% | |
5 | 66% | 77% | Median |
6 | 11% | 11% | Last Result |
7 | 0% | 0% |
Българска социалистическа партия (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Българска социалистическа партия (S&D) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 28% | 100% | |
2 | 72% | 72% | Median |
3 | 0% | 0% | |
4 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Движение за права и свободи (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
2 | 41% | 100% | |
3 | 59% | 59% | Median |
4 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Обединени Патриоти (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Обединени Патриоти (ECR) page.
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение (ECR) page.
Национален фронт за спасение на България (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Национален фронт за спасение на България (*) page.
Атака (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Атака (NI) page.
Воля–Национален фронт за спасение на България (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Воля–Национален фронт за спасение на България (ID) page.
Българските патриоти (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Българските патриоти (ECR) page.
Реформаторски блок (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Реформаторски блок (EPP) page.
Воля (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Воля (ID) page.
Демократична България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 15% | 15% | |
2 | 0% | 0% |
Демократи за силна България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократи за силна България (EPP) page.
Да, България! (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 18% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 82% | 82% | Median |
2 | 0% | 0% |
Алтернатива за българско възраждане (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алтернатива за българско възраждане (S&D) page.
Има такъв народ (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 67% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 33% | 33% | |
2 | 0% | 0% |
Възраждане (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 44% | 100% | |
3 | 56% | 56% | Median |
4 | 0% | 0% |
Изправи се Бг (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Изправи се Бг (EPP) page.
Републиканци за България (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Републиканци за България (*) page.
Продължаваме промяната (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 56% | 100% | Median |
3 | 43% | 44% | |
4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Български възход (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Български възход (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Национално движение за стабилност и възход (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Национално движение за стабилност и възход (RE) page.
Левицата! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Левицата! (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) – Реформаторски блок (EPP) – Да, България! (EPP) – Демократи за силна България (EPP) – Демократична България (EPP) – Изправи се Бг (EPP) | 7 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
Движение за права и свободи (RE) – Национално движение за стабилност и възход (RE) – Продължаваме промяната (RE) | 4 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Атака (NI) – Български възход (NI) – Възраждане (NI) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
Българска социалистическа партия (S&D) – Алтернатива за българско възраждане (S&D) | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Българските патриоти (ECR) – ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение (ECR) – Обединени Патриоти (ECR) – Има такъв народ (ECR) | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Воля–Национален фронт за спасение на България (ID) – Воля (ID) | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Национален фронт за спасение на България () – Левицата! () – Републиканци за България (*) | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) – Реформаторски блок (EPP) – Да, България! (EPP) – Демократи за силна България (EPP) – Демократична България (EPP) – Изправи се Бг (EPP)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
4 | 2% | 100% | |
5 | 29% | 98% | |
6 | 53% | 69% | Median |
7 | 15% | 16% | Last Result |
8 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
9 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Движение за права и свободи (RE) – Национално движение за стабилност и възход (RE) – Продължаваме промяната (RE)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
4 | 18% | 100% | Last Result |
5 | 61% | 82% | Median |
6 | 20% | 21% | |
7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
8 | 0% | 0% |
Атака (NI) – Български възход (NI) – Възраждане (NI)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 44% | 100% | |
3 | 56% | 56% | Median |
4 | 0% | 0% |
Българска социалистическа партия (S&D) – Алтернатива за българско възраждане (S&D)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 28% | 100% | |
2 | 72% | 72% | Median |
3 | 0% | 0% | |
4 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Българските патриоти (ECR) – ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение (ECR) – Обединени Патриоти (ECR) – Има такъв народ (ECR)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 67% | 100% | Median |
1 | 33% | 33% | |
2 | 0% | 0% | |
3 | 0% | 0% | |
4 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Воля–Национален фронт за спасение на България (ID) – Воля (ID)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Национален фронт за спасение на България () – Левицата! () – Републиканци за България (*)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 3
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 2,097,152
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 6,291,456
- Error estimate: 1.87%