Opinion Poll by Тренд for 24 часа, 26 September–2 October 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Прогресивна България (NI) 0.0% 40.8% 38.8–42.8% 38.3–43.4% 37.8–43.9% 36.8–44.8%
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 14.2% 12.8–15.7% 12.5–16.1% 12.1–16.5% 11.5–17.2%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.7%
Движение за права и свободи (ECR) 0.0% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.8–7.8% 4.5–8.4%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 5.7% 4.8–6.7% 4.6–7.0% 4.4–7.3% 4.0–7.8%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Българска социалистическа партия (S&D) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Величие (*) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Сияние (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Прогресивна България (NI) 0 8 8–9 8–9 7–10 7–10
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 3 3 3–4 2–4 2–4
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Демократична България (EPP) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Движение за права и свободи (ECR) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Възраждане (ESN) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Българска социалистическа партия (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Сияние (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Прогресивна България (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Прогресивна България (NI) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 4% 100%  
8 51% 96% Median
9 42% 45% Majority
10 3% 4%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 89% 96% Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 32% 100%  
2 67% 68% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 67% 100% Median
2 33% 33%  
3 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 50% 64% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 61% 100% Last Result, Median
1 36% 39%  
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Българска социалистическа партия (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Българска социалистическа партия (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Сияние (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Сияние (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Сияние (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Възраждане (ESN)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 61% 100% Last Result, Median
1 36% 39%  
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Сияние (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations