Opinion Poll by YouGov, 9 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 25.9% 27.1% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.5% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
Venstre 23.4% 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.5–24.1%
Dansk Folkeparti 8.7% 10.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.2% 8.7–12.5% 8.2–13.2%
Radikale Venstre 8.6% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6.6% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.8–10.2%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 6.9% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7.7% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
Nye Borgerlige 2.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Alternativet 3.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Liberal Alliance 2.3% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%
Stram Kurs 1.8% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Kristendemokraterne 1.7% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 48 45 45–46 45–51 45–53 43–58
Venstre 43 40 38–40 36–40 33–40 32–41
Dansk Folkeparti 16 18 18 18–19 17–21 16–23
Radikale Venstre 16 14 14 14–15 12–16 12–20
Det Konservative Folkeparti 12 15 15 14–15 13–15 11–17
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 13 14 14 13–14 12–14 11–16
Socialistisk Folkeparti 14 14 14 12–14 11–15 10–15
Nye Borgerlige 4 5 5–6 5–6 5–8 5–9
Alternativet 5 5 5 4–5 4–5 0–7
Liberal Alliance 4 5 5 4–5 4–5 0–7
Stram Kurs 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–5
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.8%  
44 0.3% 98%  
45 88% 98% Median
46 0.6% 10%  
47 3% 10%  
48 0.2% 7% Last Result
49 0.7% 7%  
50 0.6% 6%  
51 1.3% 5%  
52 1.4% 4%  
53 0.5% 3%  
54 0% 2%  
55 0.1% 2%  
56 0.1% 2%  
57 0% 2%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.1%  
34 1.0% 97%  
35 0.8% 96%  
36 3% 95%  
37 0.5% 92%  
38 3% 92%  
39 0.7% 89%  
40 88% 88% Median
41 0.4% 0.9%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0% 0.1% Last Result
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.9% 99.8% Last Result
17 2% 98.8%  
18 88% 97% Median
19 4% 9%  
20 1.1% 4%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.8% 2%  
23 0.6% 1.0%  
24 0.4% 0.4%  
25 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 2% 99.5%  
13 2% 97%  
14 88% 95% Median
15 3% 7%  
16 3% 4% Last Result
17 0.4% 1.3%  
18 0.1% 1.0%  
19 0.3% 0.9%  
20 0.4% 0.6%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.8% 99.8%  
12 1.0% 99.1% Last Result
13 2% 98%  
14 5% 96%  
15 89% 91% Median
16 2% 2%  
17 0.7% 0.8%  
18 0% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.3% 99.9%  
11 2% 99.6%  
12 2% 98%  
13 4% 96% Last Result
14 89% 92% Median
15 1.4% 2%  
16 0.6% 1.0%  
17 0.2% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.6% 99.7%  
11 2% 99.2%  
12 4% 97%  
13 2% 93%  
14 89% 91% Last Result, Median
15 3% 3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
5 89% 99.5% Median
6 5% 10%  
7 2% 5%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 0% 99.3%  
2 0% 99.3%  
3 0.5% 99.3%  
4 5% 98.8%  
5 91% 94% Last Result, Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0.5% 0.9%  
8 0.3% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0.3% 98%  
4 4% 98% Last Result
5 92% 94% Median
6 1.5% 2%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

Stram Kurs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stram Kurs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 2% 3%  
5 0.7% 0.8%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 96 92 98.7% 92 92–97 91–98 88–99
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 91 87 6% 87 87–92 86–94 83–95
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 80 78 0% 78 78–81 75–85 73–87
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 79 83 0% 83 77–83 76–84 75–86
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance 79 83 0% 83 77–83 76–84 74–86
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 78 73 0% 73 73–78 73–82 70–83
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 75 73 0% 73 73–76 71–80 69–83
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 75 78 0% 77–78 72–78 70–78 68–79
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 75 78 0% 77–78 72–78 70–78 67–79
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 64 59 0% 59–60 59–65 59–68 57–70
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 59 60 0% 57–60 53–60 51–60 48–60
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 55 55 0% 52–55 49–55 47–55 45–56
Venstre 43 40 0% 38–40 36–40 33–40 32–41

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.2% 100%  
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.1% 99.6%  
88 0.2% 99.5%  
89 0.6% 99.3%  
90 0.5% 98.7% Majority
91 2% 98%  
92 88% 96% Median
93 1.1% 8%  
94 0.8% 7%  
95 1.2% 6%  
96 0.1% 5% Last Result
97 0.6% 5%  
98 2% 4%  
99 2% 2%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.2% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.1% 99.6%  
83 0.7% 99.6%  
84 0.1% 98.9%  
85 0.1% 98.8%  
86 1.2% 98.7%  
87 89% 97% Median
88 1.1% 8%  
89 1.2% 7%  
90 0.7% 6% Majority
91 0.3% 5% Last Result
92 0.4% 5%  
93 2% 5%  
94 0.5% 3%  
95 2% 2%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.7%  
73 0.5% 99.5%  
74 0.4% 99.0%  
75 2% 98.6%  
76 2% 97%  
77 0.5% 96%  
78 88% 95% Median
79 0.5% 7%  
80 1.1% 7% Last Result
81 0.5% 5%  
82 1.1% 5%  
83 0.5% 4%  
84 0.3% 3%  
85 1.1% 3%  
86 0% 2%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.4% 100%  
74 0% 99.6%  
75 0.4% 99.5%  
76 2% 99.1%  
77 2% 97%  
78 1.1% 95%  
79 0% 94% Last Result
80 2% 94%  
81 0.5% 92%  
82 0.6% 92%  
83 88% 91% Median
84 2% 3%  
85 0.1% 1.0%  
86 0.5% 0.8%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0% Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.4% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.6%  
75 0.4% 99.5%  
76 2% 99.1%  
77 2% 97%  
78 1.1% 95%  
79 0% 94% Last Result
80 1.5% 94%  
81 0.5% 92%  
82 0.6% 92%  
83 88% 91% Median
84 2% 3%  
85 0.1% 0.9%  
86 0.5% 0.8%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0% Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 0.5% 99.3%  
72 1.2% 98.8%  
73 88% 98% Median
74 1.1% 10%  
75 2% 9%  
76 0.8% 7%  
77 0.4% 6%  
78 0.7% 5% Last Result
79 0.4% 5%  
80 1.3% 4%  
81 0.4% 3%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.4% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.1% 99.6%  
69 0.6% 99.5%  
70 0.8% 98.9%  
71 2% 98%  
72 0.4% 96%  
73 88% 96% Median
74 1.1% 7%  
75 0.3% 6% Last Result
76 0.7% 6%  
77 0.8% 5%  
78 0.4% 4%  
79 0.6% 4%  
80 1.2% 3%  
81 0% 2%  
82 0% 2%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.4% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.5%  
69 0.5% 99.4%  
70 2% 98.9%  
71 0.8% 97%  
72 2% 96%  
73 0.8% 94%  
74 0.5% 93%  
75 0.4% 92% Last Result
76 1.2% 92%  
77 1.1% 91%  
78 89% 90% Median
79 0.5% 0.9%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.4% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.5%  
69 0.5% 99.3%  
70 2% 98.8%  
71 0.8% 97%  
72 2% 96%  
73 0.8% 93%  
74 0.5% 93%  
75 0.4% 92% Last Result
76 1.2% 92%  
77 1.1% 91%  
78 89% 90% Median
79 0.5% 0.9%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 1.1% 99.4%  
59 88% 98% Median
60 0.7% 11%  
61 0.8% 10%  
62 1.0% 9%  
63 2% 8%  
64 0.5% 6% Last Result
65 2% 6%  
66 0.5% 4%  
67 0.6% 4%  
68 0.7% 3%  
69 0.2% 2%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.4% 100%  
48 0% 99.5%  
49 0.5% 99.5%  
50 0.5% 99.0%  
51 2% 98.5%  
52 0.5% 96%  
53 1.2% 96%  
54 0.7% 95%  
55 2% 94%  
56 1.4% 92%  
57 0.8% 90%  
58 0.4% 90%  
59 1.4% 89% Last Result
60 87% 88% Median
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.3% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.7%  
46 0.2% 99.5%  
47 3% 99.3%  
48 0.7% 97%  
49 2% 96%  
50 2% 94%  
51 0.3% 92%  
52 2% 92%  
53 0.5% 90%  
54 1.3% 89%  
55 88% 88% Last Result, Median
56 0.2% 0.6%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.1%  
34 1.0% 97%  
35 0.8% 96%  
36 3% 95%  
37 0.5% 92%  
38 3% 92%  
39 0.7% 89%  
40 88% 88% Median
41 0.4% 0.9%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0% 0.1% Last Result
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations