Opinion Poll by Norstat for Altinget and Jyllands-Posten, 19 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 25.9% 26.2% 24.5–28.0% 24.0–28.6% 23.6–29.0% 22.8–29.9%
Venstre 23.4% 22.5% 20.9–24.3% 20.4–24.8% 20.0–25.2% 19.3–26.1%
Dansk Folkeparti 8.7% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
Radikale Venstre 8.6% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 6.9% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7.7% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6.6% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Alternativet 3.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Liberal Alliance 2.3% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Nye Borgerlige 2.4% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Stram Kurs 1.8% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Kristendemokraterne 1.7% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Klaus Riskær Pedersen 0.8% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 48 48 44–50 43–50 41–50 41–52
Venstre 43 41 38–42 38–43 37–45 34–48
Dansk Folkeparti 16 21 20–22 19–23 18–23 16–23
Radikale Venstre 16 14 14–16 13–17 12–18 11–18
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 13 12 10–14 10–14 10–16 10–16
Socialistisk Folkeparti 14 13 12–14 11–15 10–16 10–17
Det Konservative Folkeparti 12 10 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–15
Alternativet 5 5 5–7 4–7 0–7 0–8
Liberal Alliance 4 5 4–5 3–7 0–7 0–8
Nye Borgerlige 4 6 4–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Stram Kurs 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Klaus Riskær Pedersen 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 4% 99.9%  
42 0.7% 96%  
43 5% 96%  
44 2% 90%  
45 2% 88%  
46 3% 86%  
47 0.5% 83%  
48 58% 83% Last Result, Median
49 2% 25%  
50 21% 23%  
51 0.7% 2%  
52 1.1% 1.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 2% 99.7%  
35 0.2% 98%  
36 0.3% 98%  
37 1.1% 98%  
38 21% 97%  
39 3% 75%  
40 9% 72%  
41 54% 64% Median
42 1.2% 10%  
43 4% 9% Last Result
44 2% 5%  
45 0.7% 3%  
46 0.3% 2%  
47 0% 2%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 1.3% 99.7% Last Result
17 0.7% 98%  
18 1.3% 98%  
19 2% 96%  
20 8% 94%  
21 75% 86% Median
22 6% 11%  
23 6% 6%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.1% 100%  
12 2% 98.8%  
13 5% 97%  
14 56% 91% Median
15 22% 35%  
16 4% 13% Last Result
17 5% 9%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 18% 99.9%  
11 1.3% 82%  
12 62% 81% Median
13 5% 19% Last Result
14 10% 14%  
15 0.6% 5%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 4% 99.8%  
11 4% 95%  
12 1.4% 91%  
13 61% 90% Median
14 20% 28% Last Result
15 6% 8%  
16 0.5% 3%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.6% 99.8%  
10 57% 99.1% Median
11 9% 42%  
12 25% 33% Last Result
13 7% 8%  
14 0.3% 1.1%  
15 0.6% 0.8%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 4% 96%  
5 66% 93% Last Result, Median
6 7% 27%  
7 19% 20%  
8 0.9% 1.2%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 4% 96%  
4 24% 93% Last Result
5 59% 68% Median
6 4% 9%  
7 4% 6%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 24% 94% Last Result
5 6% 70%  
6 60% 64% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Stram Kurs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stram Kurs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 6% 7%  
5 1.2% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Klaus Riskær Pedersen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Klaus Riskær Pedersen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 96 92 90% 90–96 88–97 87–100 85–100
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 91 87 9% 84–89 83–91 83–95 80–96
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Stram Kurs – Kristendemokraterne – Klaus Riskær Pedersen 79 83 0.6% 79–85 78–87 75–88 75–90
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne – Klaus Riskær Pedersen 79 83 0.5% 79–83 77–85 75–88 75–90
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Klaus Riskær Pedersen 79 83 0.5% 79–83 77–85 75–88 75–89
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne 79 83 0.5% 79–83 77–85 75–88 75–90
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige 79 83 0.5% 79–83 77–85 75–88 75–89
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 75 77 0% 75–79 75–81 74–83 70–84
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 80 78 0% 75–81 73–82 73–83 72–86
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 75 77 0% 75–78 75–81 73–83 70–84
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 78 75 0% 71–79 71–79 70–79 67–83
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 75 73 0% 70–74 69–77 67–77 66–81
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 64 62 0% 59–65 58–65 58–68 55–68
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 59 56 0% 54–59 54–61 53–61 51–64
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 55 51 0% 50–53 50–55 48–57 46–61
Venstre 43 41 0% 38–42 38–43 37–45 34–48

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.2% 100%  
85 0.4% 99.8%  
86 0.4% 99.4%  
87 3% 99.0%  
88 5% 96%  
89 0.7% 91%  
90 4% 90% Majority
91 0.9% 86%  
92 56% 85% Median
93 4% 30%  
94 0.1% 26%  
95 0.5% 26%  
96 20% 25% Last Result
97 1.4% 6%  
98 0.6% 4%  
99 0.5% 4%  
100 3% 3%  
101 0.2% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.2% 100%  
78 0% 99.8%  
79 0% 99.8%  
80 0.6% 99.8%  
81 0.2% 99.2%  
82 0.2% 99.0%  
83 5% 98.8%  
84 5% 94%  
85 0.4% 89%  
86 0.7% 89%  
87 57% 88% Median
88 5% 31%  
89 17% 26%  
90 3% 9% Majority
91 1.1% 6% Last Result
92 0.3% 5%  
93 0.7% 4%  
94 0.2% 4%  
95 3% 3%  
96 0.5% 0.6%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Stram Kurs – Kristendemokraterne – Klaus Riskær Pedersen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 3% 99.8%  
76 0.5% 97%  
77 0.6% 96%  
78 1.4% 96%  
79 20% 94% Last Result
80 0.5% 75%  
81 0.1% 74%  
82 4% 74%  
83 56% 70% Median
84 0.9% 15%  
85 4% 14%  
86 0.7% 10%  
87 5% 9%  
88 3% 4%  
89 0.4% 1.0%  
90 0.4% 0.6% Majority
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne – Klaus Riskær Pedersen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 3% 99.6%  
76 0.6% 96%  
77 0.6% 96%  
78 1.3% 95%  
79 20% 94% Last Result
80 0.6% 74%  
81 0.3% 73%  
82 4% 73%  
83 59% 69% Median
84 2% 10%  
85 4% 8%  
86 0.2% 4%  
87 1.3% 4%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.1% 0.6%  
90 0.3% 0.5% Majority
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Klaus Riskær Pedersen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.9%  
75 4% 99.5%  
76 0.6% 96%  
77 0.6% 95%  
78 1.3% 95%  
79 21% 93% Last Result
80 0.5% 73%  
81 0.3% 72%  
82 5% 72%  
83 58% 67% Median
84 2% 9%  
85 4% 8%  
86 0.1% 4%  
87 1.3% 4%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0% 0.5%  
90 0.3% 0.5% Majority
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 3% 99.6%  
76 0.6% 96%  
77 0.6% 96%  
78 1.3% 95%  
79 20% 94% Last Result
80 0.6% 74%  
81 0.3% 73%  
82 4% 73%  
83 59% 69% Median
84 2% 10%  
85 4% 8%  
86 0.2% 4%  
87 1.3% 4%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.1% 0.6%  
90 0.3% 0.5% Majority
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.9%  
75 4% 99.5%  
76 0.6% 96%  
77 0.6% 95%  
78 1.3% 95%  
79 21% 93% Last Result
80 0.5% 73%  
81 0.3% 72%  
82 5% 72%  
83 58% 67% Median
84 2% 9%  
85 4% 8%  
86 0.1% 4%  
87 1.3% 4%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0% 0.5%  
90 0.3% 0.5% Majority
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.3%  
72 0.2% 99.1%  
73 1.4% 98.9%  
74 0.3% 98%  
75 26% 97% Last Result
76 0.8% 71%  
77 58% 71% Median
78 2% 13%  
79 1.1% 10%  
80 0.6% 9%  
81 4% 9%  
82 1.1% 5%  
83 3% 4%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0% 0.3%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.3% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.7%  
72 0.4% 99.6%  
73 6% 99.2%  
74 1.0% 93%  
75 5% 92%  
76 1.4% 87%  
77 6% 86%  
78 54% 80% Median
79 2% 27%  
80 0.6% 24% Last Result
81 18% 24%  
82 3% 6%  
83 1.4% 3%  
84 0.5% 1.4%  
85 0.1% 0.8%  
86 0.7% 0.7%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.8%  
71 0.2% 99.2%  
72 0.2% 99.0%  
73 2% 98.8%  
74 0.3% 97%  
75 26% 97% Last Result
76 0.8% 71%  
77 58% 70% Median
78 2% 12%  
79 2% 10%  
80 0.6% 8%  
81 4% 7%  
82 1.0% 4%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.3% 0.7%  
85 0% 0.3%  
86 0% 0.3%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.7% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.0%  
69 0.2% 98.9%  
70 1.5% 98.7%  
71 8% 97%  
72 1.1% 90%  
73 0.8% 89%  
74 6% 88%  
75 56% 82% Median
76 3% 26%  
77 1.4% 23%  
78 0.2% 22% Last Result
79 20% 22%  
80 0.2% 1.4%  
81 0.5% 1.1%  
82 0% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.6%  
84 0.4% 0.4%  
85 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.3% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 0.1% 99.5%  
67 3% 99.4%  
68 1.0% 96%  
69 1.5% 95%  
70 4% 94%  
71 1.1% 89%  
72 5% 88%  
73 57% 83% Median
74 18% 26%  
75 0.5% 8% Last Result
76 2% 8%  
77 4% 6%  
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.2% 1.3%  
80 0.5% 1.1%  
81 0.5% 0.6%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.3% 100%  
55 0.5% 99.7%  
56 0.6% 99.2%  
57 1.1% 98.6%  
58 5% 98%  
59 5% 93%  
60 2% 87%  
61 5% 86%  
62 57% 81% Median
63 0.3% 24%  
64 2% 23% Last Result
65 17% 21%  
66 0.2% 4%  
67 0.6% 4%  
68 3% 3%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.5%  
52 0.2% 99.1%  
53 2% 98.9%  
54 25% 97%  
55 3% 72%  
56 56% 68% Median
57 1.1% 13%  
58 1.4% 12%  
59 2% 10% Last Result
60 0.8% 8%  
61 7% 8%  
62 0.4% 1.1%  
63 0.2% 0.7%  
64 0.2% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 2% 99.4%  
48 0.3% 98%  
49 0.6% 97%  
50 25% 97%  
51 59% 72% Median
52 2% 14%  
53 2% 11%  
54 4% 10%  
55 1.0% 6% Last Result
56 1.0% 5%  
57 1.3% 4%  
58 0.1% 2%  
59 0% 2%  
60 0.1% 2%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 2% 99.7%  
35 0.2% 98%  
36 0.3% 98%  
37 1.1% 98%  
38 21% 97%  
39 3% 75%  
40 9% 72%  
41 54% 64% Median
42 1.2% 10%  
43 4% 9% Last Result
44 2% 5%  
45 0.7% 3%  
46 0.3% 2%  
47 0% 2%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations