Opinion Poll by Voxmeter for 2019-10-07, 30 September–7 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 25.9% 28.0% 26.3–29.8% 25.8–30.3% 25.4–30.8% 24.6–31.7%
Venstre 23.4% 24.5% 22.8–26.2% 22.4–26.7% 22.0–27.2% 21.2–28.0%
Radikale Venstre 8.6% 8.7% 7.6–9.9% 7.3–10.2% 7.1–10.5% 6.6–11.1%
Dansk Folkeparti 8.7% 8.6% 7.5–9.8% 7.3–10.1% 7.0–10.4% 6.6–11.0%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7.7% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.8% 6.8–10.1% 6.3–10.7%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 6.9% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.2%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6.6% 6.9% 5.9–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.1%
Alternativet 3.0% 2.6% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Liberal Alliance 2.3% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.0%
Kristendemokraterne 1.7% 1.4% 1.1–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.9–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Nye Borgerlige 2.4% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.1% 0.6–2.4%
Stram Kurs 1.8% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 48 49 48–55 48–57 46–57 45–57
Venstre 43 46 42–47 40–48 40–48 39–51
Radikale Venstre 16 16 13–17 13–18 13–19 12–20
Dansk Folkeparti 16 16 13–17 12–17 12–18 12–19
Socialistisk Folkeparti 14 16 14–18 13–18 13–18 11–19
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 13 13 11–14 11–14 11–15 10–16
Det Konservative Folkeparti 12 12 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–16
Alternativet 5 4 4–5 4–6 4–7 0–7
Liberal Alliance 4 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Nye Borgerlige 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Stram Kurs 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 1.2% 99.8%  
46 2% 98.6%  
47 0.9% 96%  
48 6% 95% Last Result
49 40% 89% Median
50 5% 49%  
51 16% 44%  
52 5% 28%  
53 5% 23%  
54 1.0% 18%  
55 8% 17%  
56 0.6% 9%  
57 8% 8%  
58 0.5% 0.5%  
59 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.9%  
40 4% 99.3%  
41 2% 95%  
42 6% 93%  
43 11% 87% Last Result
44 11% 76%  
45 14% 65%  
46 38% 51% Median
47 6% 14%  
48 6% 8%  
49 0.9% 2%  
50 0.6% 1.2%  
51 0.5% 0.6%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 9% 98%  
14 1.2% 88%  
15 5% 87%  
16 57% 82% Last Result, Median
17 19% 25%  
18 3% 7%  
19 1.2% 3%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0% 0.4%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 6% 99.8%  
13 6% 94%  
14 4% 89%  
15 14% 85%  
16 60% 71% Last Result, Median
17 7% 11%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.5% 0.8%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.9% 100%  
12 1.3% 99.0%  
13 6% 98%  
14 16% 92% Last Result
15 4% 76%  
16 52% 72% Median
17 6% 19%  
18 12% 13%  
19 1.1% 1.1%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 2% 99.8%  
11 14% 98%  
12 23% 84%  
13 47% 61% Last Result, Median
14 12% 15%  
15 2% 3%  
16 1.0% 1.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 3% 99.9%  
11 46% 97%  
12 15% 51% Last Result, Median
13 15% 36%  
14 11% 20%  
15 8% 10%  
16 1.3% 1.5%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 65% 98% Median
5 24% 32% Last Result
6 4% 8%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Median
1 0% 19%  
2 0% 19%  
3 0% 19%  
4 8% 19% Last Result
5 11% 11%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 6% 6%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Median
1 0% 46%  
2 0% 46%  
3 0% 46%  
4 46% 46% Last Result
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Stram Kurs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stram Kurs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet 96 98 100% 97–103 95–103 95–106 93–107
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 91 94 98.6% 93–98 91–98 91–102 88–104
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet 80 82 2% 80–89 78–89 78–89 77–91
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 78 81 0.7% 79–87 79–87 78–88 74–91
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 75 78 0% 76–84 74–84 74–84 72–86
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne – Nye Borgerlige 79 77 0% 72–78 72–80 69–80 68–82
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 75 73 0% 70–78 70–80 69–80 68–82
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige 79 77 0% 72–78 71–80 69–80 68–82
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 75 73 0% 70–77 70–80 69–80 68–81
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 64 65 0% 65–71 64–71 63–71 61–74
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 59 57 0% 54–63 54–67 54–67 52–67
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 55 57 0% 54–61 53–62 53–62 52–63
Venstre 43 46 0% 42–47 40–48 40–48 39–51

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.2% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 0.3% 99.6%  
94 0.9% 99.3%  
95 6% 98%  
96 2% 93% Last Result
97 5% 91%  
98 44% 86% Median
99 2% 42%  
100 4% 40%  
101 10% 35%  
102 9% 25%  
103 12% 16%  
104 0.9% 5%  
105 0.5% 4%  
106 1.3% 3%  
107 2% 2%  
108 0% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.2%  
110 0.2% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.2% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.5% 99.7%  
89 0.6% 99.2%  
90 0.2% 98.6% Majority
91 6% 98% Last Result
92 2% 93%  
93 8% 91%  
94 43% 83% Median
95 2% 40%  
96 7% 38%  
97 18% 31%  
98 9% 14%  
99 0.8% 5%  
100 0.4% 4%  
101 0.1% 4%  
102 3% 4%  
103 0% 0.6%  
104 0.6% 0.6%  
105 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.7%  
77 0.4% 99.6%  
78 5% 99.2%  
79 3% 94%  
80 5% 91% Last Result
81 4% 87%  
82 40% 83% Median
83 3% 43%  
84 2% 40%  
85 12% 38%  
86 7% 26%  
87 9% 20%  
88 0.6% 11%  
89 8% 10%  
90 1.3% 2% Majority
91 0.6% 1.0%  
92 0.4% 0.4%  
93 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.4% 99.8%  
75 0.1% 99.4%  
76 1.0% 99.3%  
77 0.2% 98%  
78 2% 98% Last Result
79 10% 96%  
80 2% 86%  
81 38% 85% Median
82 4% 47%  
83 7% 42%  
84 13% 36%  
85 10% 23%  
86 2% 13%  
87 7% 11%  
88 4% 5%  
89 0.1% 0.8%  
90 0.1% 0.7% Majority
91 0.6% 0.6%  
92 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.9%  
73 0.7% 99.5%  
74 5% 98.8%  
75 2% 94% Last Result
76 5% 91%  
77 5% 86%  
78 38% 81% Median
79 7% 43%  
80 3% 36%  
81 13% 33%  
82 9% 20%  
83 0.4% 11%  
84 8% 10%  
85 0.4% 2%  
86 2% 2%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne – Nye Borgerlige

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0% 99.8%  
67 0% 99.8%  
68 2% 99.8%  
69 1.3% 98%  
70 0.5% 97%  
71 1.0% 96%  
72 12% 95%  
73 9% 83%  
74 10% 75% Median
75 4% 65%  
76 2% 60%  
77 44% 58%  
78 5% 14%  
79 2% 9% Last Result
80 6% 7%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0% 99.8%  
67 0% 99.8%  
68 2% 99.8%  
69 1.3% 98%  
70 10% 97%  
71 1.0% 87%  
72 12% 86%  
73 44% 74%  
74 1.2% 30% Median
75 5% 29% Last Result
76 3% 24%  
77 8% 21%  
78 5% 13%  
79 0.7% 8%  
80 6% 7%  
81 0.8% 1.3%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0% 99.8%  
67 0% 99.8%  
68 2% 99.7%  
69 1.3% 98%  
70 0.7% 96%  
71 1.0% 96%  
72 12% 95%  
73 11% 83%  
74 12% 72% Median
75 4% 60%  
76 3% 56%  
77 42% 53%  
78 3% 11%  
79 2% 8% Last Result
80 5% 6%  
81 0.5% 1.0%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 2% 99.7%  
69 1.3% 98%  
70 10% 96%  
71 1.0% 86%  
72 12% 85%  
73 46% 74%  
74 3% 27% Median
75 5% 25% Last Result
76 3% 19%  
77 6% 16%  
78 3% 10%  
79 0.5% 6%  
80 5% 6%  
81 0.5% 0.9%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 1.3% 99.7%  
62 0.2% 98%  
63 2% 98%  
64 5% 96% Last Result
65 42% 91% Median
66 5% 50%  
67 15% 45%  
68 6% 31%  
69 3% 25%  
70 9% 22%  
71 11% 12%  
72 0.4% 1.3%  
73 0.3% 0.9%  
74 0.2% 0.6%  
75 0.4% 0.4%  
76 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 1.4% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 98%  
54 10% 98%  
55 1.1% 88%  
56 4% 87%  
57 56% 83%  
58 3% 26% Median
59 2% 23% Last Result
60 2% 21%  
61 6% 19%  
62 2% 13%  
63 2% 11%  
64 0.4% 9%  
65 4% 9%  
66 0% 5%  
67 5% 5%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.8%  
52 2% 99.6%  
53 5% 98%  
54 11% 93%  
55 2% 82% Last Result
56 4% 80%  
57 53% 76%  
58 3% 22% Median
59 2% 19%  
60 5% 17%  
61 4% 12%  
62 6% 8%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.9%  
40 4% 99.3%  
41 2% 95%  
42 6% 93%  
43 11% 87% Last Result
44 11% 76%  
45 14% 65%  
46 38% 51% Median
47 6% 14%  
48 6% 8%  
49 0.9% 2%  
50 0.6% 1.2%  
51 0.5% 0.6%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations