Opinion Poll by Epinion for DR, 20 November 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialdemokraterne | 25.9% | 25.7% | 24.4–27.2% | 24.0–27.6% | 23.6–27.9% | 23.0–28.6% |
| Venstre | 23.4% | 23.2% | 21.9–24.6% | 21.6–25.0% | 21.2–25.4% | 20.6–26.0% |
| Dansk Folkeparti | 8.7% | 10.6% | 9.7–11.6% | 9.4–11.9% | 9.2–12.2% | 8.7–12.7% |
| Radikale Venstre | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.6–9.4% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.2–10.0% | 6.8–10.4% |
| Socialistisk Folkeparti | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.1–8.9% | 6.9–9.1% | 6.7–9.3% | 6.3–9.8% |
| Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3–7.9% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.9–8.4% | 5.5–8.9% |
| Det Konservative Folkeparti | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3–7.9% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.9–8.4% | 5.5–8.9% |
| Nye Borgerlige | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.7–3.9% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.5–4.2% | 2.3–4.6% |
| Alternativet | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.7–3.8% |
| Liberal Alliance | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.2–3.0% |
| Stram Kurs | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.4–2.3% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.8% |
| Klaus Riskær Pedersen | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialdemokraterne | 48 | 44 | 44–47 | 44–48 | 43–48 | 40–52 |
| Venstre | 43 | 39 | 39–45 | 39–45 | 38–45 | 38–47 |
| Dansk Folkeparti | 16 | 19 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 16–23 |
| Radikale Venstre | 16 | 18 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 13–19 |
| Socialistisk Folkeparti | 14 | 15 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 11–17 |
| Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne | 13 | 13 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–16 |
| Det Konservative Folkeparti | 12 | 15 | 11–15 | 10–15 | 10–15 | 10–16 |
| Nye Borgerlige | 4 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| Alternativet | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| Liberal Alliance | 4 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Stram Kurs | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Klaus Riskær Pedersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Socialdemokraterne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 42 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98% | |
| 44 | 58% | 96% | Median |
| 45 | 4% | 38% | |
| 46 | 19% | 34% | |
| 47 | 9% | 15% | |
| 48 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 49 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 63% | 97% | Median |
| 40 | 6% | 34% | |
| 41 | 9% | 28% | |
| 42 | 4% | 19% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 15% | Last Result |
| 44 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 45 | 11% | 12% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Dansk Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 17 | 4% | 98% | |
| 18 | 6% | 94% | |
| 19 | 66% | 88% | Median |
| 20 | 12% | 22% | |
| 21 | 2% | 10% | |
| 22 | 7% | 8% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Radikale Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 9% | 94% | |
| 15 | 15% | 85% | |
| 16 | 3% | 70% | Last Result |
| 17 | 8% | 67% | |
| 18 | 58% | 60% | Median |
| 19 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistisk Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 5% | 98% | |
| 14 | 5% | 93% | Last Result |
| 15 | 67% | 88% | Median |
| 16 | 20% | 21% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 5% | 89% | |
| 12 | 5% | 84% | |
| 13 | 72% | 79% | Last Result, Median |
| 14 | 5% | 7% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Det Konservative Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9% | 100% | |
| 11 | 6% | 91% | |
| 12 | 8% | 86% | Last Result |
| 13 | 13% | 77% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 65% | |
| 15 | 63% | 64% | Median |
| 16 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Nye Borgerlige
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 5 | 11% | 98% | |
| 6 | 17% | 87% | |
| 7 | 66% | 70% | Median |
| 8 | 4% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Alternativet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0% | 97% | |
| 3 | 0% | 97% | |
| 4 | 27% | 97% | |
| 5 | 65% | 71% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 4% | 5% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Liberal Alliance
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 82% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 18% | |
| 2 | 0% | 18% | |
| 3 | 0% | 18% | |
| 4 | 13% | 18% | Last Result |
| 5 | 2% | 4% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Stram Kurs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stram Kurs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0% | 11% | |
| 4 | 8% | 11% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Klaus Riskær Pedersen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Klaus Riskær Pedersen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet | 96 | 95 | 96% | 91–95 | 90–95 | 88–97 | 86–99 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne | 91 | 90 | 72% | 87–91 | 86–91 | 84–92 | 82–94 |
| Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance – Klaus Riskær Pedersen | 79 | 80 | 0% | 80–84 | 78–84 | 77–84 | 74–88 |
| Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance | 79 | 80 | 0% | 80–84 | 78–84 | 77–84 | 74–88 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet | 80 | 77 | 0% | 76–79 | 76–80 | 73–81 | 71–86 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti | 78 | 77 | 0% | 75–78 | 73–78 | 72–79 | 70–81 |
| Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance | 75 | 73 | 0% | 73–78 | 72–78 | 71–78 | 69–81 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne | 75 | 72 | 0% | 72–74 | 72–76 | 70–77 | 66–80 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre | 64 | 62 | 0% | 60–63 | 59–63 | 57–65 | 56–67 |
| Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance | 59 | 54 | 0% | 53–58 | 51–58 | 51–59 | 50–62 |
| Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti | 55 | 54 | 0% | 51–58 | 51–58 | 50–58 | 49–60 |
| Venstre | 43 | 39 | 0% | 39–45 | 39–45 | 38–45 | 38–47 |
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 88 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 89 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 90 | 3% | 96% | Majority |
| 91 | 12% | 93% | |
| 92 | 1.3% | 80% | |
| 93 | 7% | 79% | |
| 94 | 0.9% | 72% | |
| 95 | 67% | 71% | Median |
| 96 | 1.1% | 4% | Last Result |
| 97 | 3% | 3% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 82 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 85 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 86 | 6% | 97% | |
| 87 | 11% | 91% | |
| 88 | 2% | 80% | |
| 89 | 5% | 77% | |
| 90 | 60% | 72% | Median, Majority |
| 91 | 9% | 12% | Last Result |
| 92 | 2% | 3% | |
| 93 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance – Klaus Riskær Pedersen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 76 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 78 | 4% | 97% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 94% | Last Result |
| 80 | 68% | 93% | Median |
| 81 | 4% | 25% | |
| 82 | 6% | 21% | |
| 83 | 2% | 15% | |
| 84 | 12% | 14% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 76 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 78 | 4% | 97% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 94% | Last Result |
| 80 | 68% | 93% | Median |
| 81 | 4% | 25% | |
| 82 | 6% | 21% | |
| 83 | 2% | 15% | |
| 84 | 12% | 14% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 73 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 75 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 76 | 15% | 95% | |
| 77 | 59% | 81% | Median |
| 78 | 10% | 22% | |
| 79 | 3% | 12% | |
| 80 | 5% | 9% | Last Result |
| 81 | 3% | 4% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 86 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 72 | 3% | 98% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 74 | 2% | 94% | |
| 75 | 3% | 92% | |
| 76 | 8% | 89% | |
| 77 | 69% | 81% | Median |
| 78 | 9% | 12% | Last Result |
| 79 | 2% | 3% | |
| 80 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 71 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 72 | 3% | 97% | |
| 73 | 64% | 94% | Median |
| 74 | 3% | 30% | |
| 75 | 7% | 27% | Last Result |
| 76 | 1.2% | 20% | |
| 77 | 5% | 19% | |
| 78 | 12% | 14% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 71 | 2% | 97% | |
| 72 | 73% | 95% | Median |
| 73 | 5% | 22% | |
| 74 | 7% | 17% | |
| 75 | 2% | 10% | Last Result |
| 76 | 4% | 8% | |
| 77 | 3% | 4% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 58 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 59 | 3% | 96% | |
| 60 | 6% | 92% | |
| 61 | 13% | 86% | |
| 62 | 62% | 74% | Median |
| 63 | 7% | 11% | |
| 64 | 1.0% | 5% | Last Result |
| 65 | 2% | 4% | |
| 66 | 2% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 51 | 6% | 98% | |
| 52 | 2% | 92% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 54 | 61% | 90% | Median |
| 55 | 1.3% | 29% | |
| 56 | 1.3% | 27% | |
| 57 | 4% | 26% | |
| 58 | 18% | 22% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 3% | 98% | |
| 51 | 8% | 95% | |
| 52 | 3% | 87% | |
| 53 | 2% | 84% | |
| 54 | 66% | 82% | Median |
| 55 | 2% | 16% | Last Result |
| 56 | 1.2% | 14% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 13% | |
| 58 | 11% | 12% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 63% | 97% | Median |
| 40 | 6% | 34% | |
| 41 | 9% | 28% | |
| 42 | 4% | 19% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 15% | Last Result |
| 44 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 45 | 11% | 12% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Epinion
- Commissioner(s): DR
- Fieldwork period: 20 November 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1605
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.68%