Opinion Poll by Kantar Gallup for Berlingske, 5–11 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 28.5% 27.0–30.0% 26.6–30.4% 26.3–30.8% 25.6–31.5%
Venstre 19.5% 21.5% 20.2–22.9% 19.8–23.3% 19.5–23.6% 18.9–24.3%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 15.9% 14.7–17.1% 14.4–17.5% 14.1–17.8% 13.6–18.4%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 8.3% 7.4–9.3% 7.2–9.5% 7.0–9.8% 6.6–10.3%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 5.9% 5.2–6.8% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.2% 4.5–7.7%
Alternativet 4.8% 5.1% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 4.1–6.3% 3.8–6.7%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 4.7% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.3%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 4.4% 3.8–5.2% 3.6–5.4% 3.5–5.6% 3.2–6.0%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 3.4% 2.9–4.1% 2.7–4.3% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.8%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.5%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 52 49–53 48–55 47–55 45–55
Venstre 34 38 36–40 35–40 35–43 34–43
Dansk Folkeparti 37 27 27–31 26–31 25–31 24–32
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 14 14–16 13–16 12–17 11–18
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 10 10–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
Alternativet 9 10 8–11 8–11 7–11 7–12
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 8 8–9 7–10 7–10 7–10
Radikale Venstre 8 9 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–10
Liberal Alliance 13 6 6–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
Nye Borgerlige 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.5% 99.9%  
46 1.2% 99.5%  
47 3% 98% Last Result
48 4% 96%  
49 15% 92%  
50 13% 76%  
51 13% 64%  
52 40% 51% Median
53 4% 11%  
54 2% 7%  
55 5% 5%  
56 0.3% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
35 8% 99.4%  
36 28% 92%  
37 1.4% 64%  
38 40% 63% Median
39 9% 22%  
40 9% 13%  
41 0.5% 4%  
42 0.7% 4%  
43 3% 3%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.7% 100%  
25 3% 99.3%  
26 6% 96%  
27 44% 90% Median
28 8% 47%  
29 11% 38%  
30 11% 28%  
31 16% 17%  
32 0.6% 0.8%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0% Last Result

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.4% 100%  
12 2% 98.6%  
13 6% 97%  
14 57% 91% Last Result, Median
15 17% 34%  
16 13% 17%  
17 2% 4%  
18 1.2% 1.5%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 6% 98%  
10 59% 92% Median
11 8% 33%  
12 20% 25%  
13 4% 5%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 5% 100%  
8 13% 95%  
9 28% 82% Last Result
10 13% 54% Median
11 40% 41%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 6% 99.8% Last Result
8 49% 94% Median
9 38% 45%  
10 7% 7%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 3% 99.8%  
7 10% 97%  
8 14% 87% Last Result
9 67% 73% Median
10 6% 6%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 7% 98%  
6 68% 91% Median
7 21% 24%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 5% 6%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 85 94 88% 89–94 88–94 87–95 86–96
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne 90 81 0.3% 81–86 81–87 80–88 79–89
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 90 81 0.3% 81–85 81–87 80–88 78–88
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige 90 81 0.3% 81–86 81–87 80–88 79–89
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 90 81 0.3% 81–85 81–87 80–88 78–88
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet – Socialistisk Folkeparti 77 85 0.1% 81–85 80–86 80–87 78–88
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 76 83 0% 79–85 78–87 78–87 77–87
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 68 74 0% 72–76 71–78 71–79 68–79
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 62 69 0% 65–70 63–71 63–73 62–73
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 61 0% 57–61 55–62 54–64 53–64
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 53 54 0% 52–57 51–59 51–60 50–61
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 48 0% 46–50 45–52 45–53 44–55
Venstre 34 38 0% 36–40 35–40 35–43 34–43

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.3% 100% Last Result
86 0.2% 99.7%  
87 4% 99.5%  
88 5% 96%  
89 3% 91%  
90 18% 88% Majority
91 6% 71%  
92 6% 65%  
93 6% 59% Median
94 49% 53%  
95 4% 4%  
96 0.4% 0.7%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.7%  
80 4% 99.3%  
81 49% 96% Median
82 6% 47%  
83 6% 41%  
84 6% 35%  
85 18% 29%  
86 3% 12%  
87 5% 9%  
88 4% 4%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.3% 0.3% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.3% 99.6%  
79 0.6% 99.3%  
80 4% 98.8%  
81 51% 95% Median
82 6% 44%  
83 6% 37%  
84 7% 31%  
85 15% 25%  
86 2% 9%  
87 4% 7%  
88 3% 3%  
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0.3% 0.3% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.7%  
80 4% 99.3%  
81 49% 96% Median
82 6% 47%  
83 6% 41%  
84 6% 35%  
85 18% 29%  
86 3% 12%  
87 5% 9%  
88 4% 4%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.3% 0.3% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.3% 99.6%  
79 0.6% 99.3%  
80 4% 98.8%  
81 51% 95% Median
82 6% 44%  
83 6% 37%  
84 7% 31%  
85 15% 25%  
86 2% 9%  
87 4% 7%  
88 3% 3%  
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0.3% 0.3% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.4% 100% Last Result
78 0.2% 99.6%  
79 1.4% 99.3%  
80 5% 98%  
81 15% 93%  
82 7% 78%  
83 10% 71%  
84 4% 60% Median
85 51% 56%  
86 2% 5%  
87 3% 3%  
88 0.4% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1% Majority
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
77 1.1% 99.6%  
78 4% 98%  
79 6% 95%  
80 4% 89%  
81 15% 85%  
82 5% 70%  
83 42% 65% Median
84 9% 23%  
85 7% 14%  
86 2% 7%  
87 5% 5%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0% Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
69 0.9% 99.5%  
70 0.9% 98.6%  
71 7% 98%  
72 16% 91%  
73 3% 75%  
74 45% 72% Median
75 14% 27%  
76 4% 12%  
77 2% 8%  
78 4% 6%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 2% 99.7% Last Result
63 3% 98%  
64 3% 95%  
65 3% 92%  
66 4% 89%  
67 16% 84%  
68 10% 68%  
69 43% 57% Median
70 9% 15%  
71 1.3% 6%  
72 1.4% 5%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.4% 99.9%  
54 4% 99.5%  
55 0.8% 95% Last Result
56 4% 95%  
57 4% 91%  
58 17% 87%  
59 13% 70%  
60 3% 57%  
61 47% 54% Median
62 3% 7%  
63 1.3% 5%  
64 3% 3%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 8% 99.5%  
52 4% 92%  
53 9% 88% Last Result
54 53% 79% Median
55 6% 26%  
56 9% 20%  
57 4% 11%  
58 2% 7%  
59 2% 5%  
60 0.4% 3%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100% Last Result
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.9% 99.7%  
45 7% 98.8%  
46 9% 92%  
47 2% 83%  
48 56% 81% Median
49 9% 25%  
50 6% 15%  
51 3% 9%  
52 2% 6%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.1% 2%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
35 8% 99.4%  
36 28% 92%  
37 1.4% 64%  
38 40% 63% Median
39 9% 22%  
40 9% 13%  
41 0.5% 4%  
42 0.7% 4%  
43 3% 3%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations