Opinion Poll by YouGov, 19–22 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 28.1% 26.6–29.6% 26.2–30.1% 25.8–30.5% 25.1–31.2%
Venstre 19.5% 19.7% 18.4–21.1% 18.1–21.5% 17.8–21.9% 17.2–22.5%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.4–18.7% 15.1–19.0% 14.6–19.6%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 8.6% 7.7–9.6% 7.5–9.9% 7.3–10.2% 6.9–10.7%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 4.9% 4.3–5.7% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.2% 3.6–6.6%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 4.8% 4.1–5.6% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.0% 3.5–6.4%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 4.7% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.3%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 4.7% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.3%
Alternativet 4.8% 4.5% 3.9–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.3–6.1%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 2.3% 1.9–2.9% 1.8–3.1% 1.7–3.2% 1.5–3.6%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 48 47–52 46–52 45–52 44–54
Venstre 34 36 32–38 32–38 31–38 30–39
Dansk Folkeparti 37 29 29–31 28–32 27–34 26–34
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 15 14–16 13–17 13–17 12–19
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 8 8–10 7–11 7–11 7–11
Radikale Venstre 8 8 7–11 7–11 7–11 7–11
Liberal Alliance 13 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–11
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 9 7–9 7–9 7–10 6–11
Alternativet 9 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Nye Borgerlige 0 4 4–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0.8% 99.9%  
45 4% 99.2%  
46 3% 95%  
47 14% 92% Last Result
48 35% 79% Median
49 3% 44%  
50 6% 40%  
51 5% 35%  
52 27% 29%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.5% 1.0%  
55 0.4% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.8%  
31 3% 99.2%  
32 9% 97%  
33 6% 88%  
34 26% 82% Last Result
35 2% 56%  
36 41% 54% Median
37 2% 12%  
38 8% 10%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.0%  
28 6% 97%  
29 70% 91% Median
30 8% 21%  
31 7% 13%  
32 3% 7%  
33 0.4% 3%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.4% 0.4%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0% Last Result

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.9%  
13 5% 99.2%  
14 35% 94% Last Result
15 44% 59% Median
16 9% 15%  
17 4% 6%  
18 0.9% 2%  
19 0.8% 0.9%  
20 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100% Last Result
7 5% 99.9%  
8 59% 95% Median
9 14% 36%  
10 14% 22%  
11 9% 9%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 13% 99.5%  
8 40% 87% Last Result, Median
9 17% 47%  
10 7% 30%  
11 23% 23%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.5% 99.9%  
7 39% 99.5%  
8 13% 60% Median
9 39% 48%  
10 7% 8%  
11 1.0% 1.2%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 27% 98% Last Result
8 11% 71%  
9 57% 60% Median
10 1.1% 3%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 28% 97%  
8 24% 69% Median
9 6% 45% Last Result
10 38% 39%  
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 47% 93% Median
5 45% 47%  
6 1.4% 1.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 85 90 73% 85–91 85–92 85–94 84–95
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne 90 85 12% 84–90 83–90 81–90 80–91
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige 90 85 12% 84–90 83–90 81–90 80–91
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 90 80 0.1% 80–85 79–85 77–86 76–87
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 90 80 0.1% 80–85 79–85 77–86 76–87
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 76 80 0% 78–84 77–84 77–86 76–89
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 77 82 0% 78–83 77–84 76–84 75–87
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 68 72 0% 70–74 69–76 69–76 67–81
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 62 65 0% 63–70 63–70 63–70 61–72
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 56 0% 54–63 54–63 54–63 53–63
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 53 51 0% 50–56 49–56 48–56 46–57
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 44 0% 42–47 41–47 40–47 38–48
Venstre 34 36 0% 32–38 32–38 31–38 30–39

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.4% 99.8%  
85 12% 99.3% Last Result
86 1.1% 88%  
87 3% 87%  
88 2% 84% Median
89 8% 82%  
90 35% 73% Majority
91 31% 38%  
92 4% 7%  
93 0.9% 3%  
94 1.0% 3%  
95 1.1% 2%  
96 0.4% 0.4%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.4% 99.9%  
80 1.1% 99.6%  
81 1.0% 98%  
82 0.9% 97%  
83 4% 97%  
84 31% 93%  
85 35% 62% Median
86 8% 27%  
87 2% 18%  
88 3% 16%  
89 1.1% 13%  
90 12% 12% Last Result, Majority
91 0.4% 0.7%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.4% 99.9%  
80 1.1% 99.6%  
81 1.0% 98%  
82 0.9% 97%  
83 4% 97%  
84 31% 93%  
85 35% 62% Median
86 8% 27%  
87 2% 18%  
88 3% 16%  
89 1.1% 13%  
90 12% 12% Last Result, Majority
91 0.4% 0.7%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 1.2% 99.6%  
77 1.0% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 3% 96%  
80 59% 93%  
81 2% 33% Median
82 8% 32%  
83 1.4% 23%  
84 8% 22%  
85 8% 13%  
86 4% 5%  
87 0.9% 1.3%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 1.2% 99.6%  
77 1.0% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 3% 96%  
80 59% 93%  
81 2% 33% Median
82 8% 32%  
83 1.4% 23%  
84 8% 22%  
85 8% 13%  
86 4% 5%  
87 0.9% 1.3%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.6% 99.7% Last Result
77 8% 99.0%  
78 5% 91%  
79 2% 86%  
80 35% 83% Median
81 11% 48%  
82 5% 38%  
83 6% 33%  
84 23% 27%  
85 2% 4%  
86 1.1% 3%  
87 0.3% 1.4%  
88 0.4% 1.1%  
89 0.8% 0.8%  
90 0% 0% Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.9%  
76 4% 99.5%  
77 0.9% 96% Last Result
78 10% 95%  
79 7% 85%  
80 25% 78% Median
81 2% 53%  
82 41% 51%  
83 3% 10%  
84 5% 7%  
85 0.4% 2%  
86 0.4% 2%  
87 1.4% 2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.7% 99.8%  
68 0.1% 99.1% Last Result
69 4% 99.0%  
70 9% 95%  
71 7% 85%  
72 39% 78% Median
73 25% 39%  
74 8% 14%  
75 0.9% 6%  
76 3% 5%  
77 0.5% 2%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.4% 1.2%  
80 0% 0.8%  
81 0.7% 0.7%  
82 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.8% 99.7%  
62 0.3% 98.9% Last Result
63 13% 98.6%  
64 4% 85%  
65 38% 82% Median
66 5% 44%  
67 3% 39%  
68 8% 36%  
69 3% 28%  
70 23% 25%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 1.0% 1.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.9% 99.7%  
54 12% 98.8%  
55 3% 87% Last Result
56 34% 84% Median
57 8% 50%  
58 2% 42%  
59 11% 40%  
60 3% 29%  
61 3% 26%  
62 2% 24%  
63 22% 22%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.9% 99.9%  
47 1.0% 99.0%  
48 1.2% 98%  
49 4% 97%  
50 5% 93%  
51 57% 88%  
52 4% 31% Median
53 7% 27% Last Result
54 4% 20%  
55 5% 15%  
56 10% 11%  
57 0% 0.5%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.7% 99.9%  
39 0.8% 99.2%  
40 3% 98% Last Result
41 4% 95%  
42 24% 92%  
43 12% 68%  
44 35% 56% Median
45 2% 21%  
46 8% 19%  
47 9% 11%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.8%  
31 3% 99.2%  
32 9% 97%  
33 6% 88%  
34 26% 82% Last Result
35 2% 56%  
36 41% 54% Median
37 2% 12%  
38 8% 10%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations