Opinion Poll by Epinion for DR, 19–25 January 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialdemokraterne | 26.3% | 28.3% | 27.0–29.7% | 26.6–30.1% | 26.3–30.5% | 25.6–31.2% |
| Venstre | 19.5% | 17.9% | 16.8–19.1% | 16.4–19.4% | 16.2–19.7% | 15.6–20.3% |
| Dansk Folkeparti | 21.1% | 17.4% | 16.3–18.6% | 16.0–19.0% | 15.7–19.3% | 15.2–19.9% |
| Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.9–9.6% | 7.7–9.9% | 7.5–10.1% | 7.1–10.5% |
| Socialistisk Folkeparti | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.1–6.6% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.8–7.0% | 4.5–7.4% |
| Radikale Venstre | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.0–6.4% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.6–6.8% | 4.3–7.2% |
| Liberal Alliance | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.6–6.0% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% | 4.0–6.7% |
| Det Konservative Folkeparti | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.9–5.1% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.6–5.5% | 3.3–5.9% |
| Alternativet | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.5–4.8% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.5% |
| Nye Borgerlige | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.7% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.4–3.3% |
| Kristendemokraterne | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialdemokraterne | 47 | 49 | 47–52 | 47–52 | 47–52 | 45–54 |
| Venstre | 34 | 30 | 29–34 | 29–34 | 27–34 | 26–36 |
| Dansk Folkeparti | 37 | 32 | 28–33 | 27–33 | 27–34 | 26–34 |
| Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne | 14 | 16 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 12–19 | 12–19 |
| Socialistisk Folkeparti | 7 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| Radikale Venstre | 8 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–13 |
| Liberal Alliance | 13 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| Det Konservative Folkeparti | 6 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 |
| Alternativet | 9 | 7 | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Nye Borgerlige | 0 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Kristendemokraterne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Socialdemokraterne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 46 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 47 | 32% | 98% | Last Result |
| 48 | 3% | 66% | |
| 49 | 29% | 63% | Median |
| 50 | 8% | 34% | |
| 51 | 11% | 25% | |
| 52 | 12% | 14% | |
| 53 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 28 | 2% | 97% | |
| 29 | 40% | 95% | |
| 30 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 31 | 6% | 41% | |
| 32 | 5% | 35% | |
| 33 | 8% | 30% | |
| 34 | 20% | 22% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Dansk Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 27 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 28 | 5% | 93% | |
| 29 | 2% | 88% | |
| 30 | 3% | 86% | |
| 31 | 32% | 83% | |
| 32 | 8% | 50% | Median |
| 33 | 40% | 42% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 6% | 97% | |
| 14 | 6% | 92% | Last Result |
| 15 | 5% | 86% | |
| 16 | 44% | 81% | Median |
| 17 | 31% | 37% | |
| 18 | 3% | 6% | |
| 19 | 3% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistisk Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 8 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 9 | 16% | 99.0% | |
| 10 | 34% | 83% | Median |
| 11 | 39% | 49% | |
| 12 | 4% | 10% | |
| 13 | 6% | 6% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Radikale Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 4% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 9 | 22% | 96% | |
| 10 | 25% | 73% | Median |
| 11 | 46% | 48% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Liberal Alliance
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 27% | 99.4% | |
| 9 | 45% | 72% | Median |
| 10 | 17% | 27% | |
| 11 | 10% | 10% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Det Konservative Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 7 | 27% | 98% | |
| 8 | 60% | 71% | Median |
| 9 | 2% | 11% | |
| 10 | 8% | 8% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Alternativet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 45% | 90% | Median |
| 8 | 39% | 46% | |
| 9 | 6% | 6% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Nye Borgerlige
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 36% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 64% | |
| 2 | 0% | 64% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 64% | |
| 4 | 52% | 64% | Median |
| 5 | 10% | 12% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Kristendemokraterne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet | 85 | 93 | 96% | 91–96 | 90–96 | 89–96 | 87–99 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre | 76 | 86 | 7% | 83–88 | 82–90 | 81–90 | 80–92 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet | 77 | 83 | 0.1% | 81–87 | 81–87 | 79–87 | 77–88 |
| Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne | 90 | 82 | 0% | 79–84 | 79–85 | 79–86 | 76–88 |
| Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige | 90 | 82 | 0% | 79–84 | 79–85 | 79–86 | 76–88 |
| Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne | 90 | 79 | 0% | 76–81 | 75–83 | 75–85 | 74–85 |
| Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti | 90 | 79 | 0% | 76–81 | 75–83 | 75–85 | 74–85 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti | 68 | 75 | 0% | 73–79 | 73–79 | 71–79 | 69–81 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre | 62 | 69 | 0% | 68–73 | 68–74 | 66–74 | 65–76 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre | 55 | 59 | 0% | 58–61 | 57–62 | 57–63 | 55–65 |
| Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti | 53 | 48 | 0% | 45–50 | 44–52 | 44–52 | 44–54 |
| Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti | 40 | 37 | 0% | 36–42 | 36–42 | 35–42 | 34–44 |
| Venstre | 34 | 30 | 0% | 29–34 | 29–34 | 27–34 | 26–36 |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 88 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 89 | 2% | 98% | |
| 90 | 5% | 96% | Majority |
| 91 | 4% | 91% | |
| 92 | 36% | 87% | Median |
| 93 | 2% | 51% | |
| 94 | 28% | 49% | |
| 95 | 3% | 20% | |
| 96 | 15% | 17% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 80 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 82 | 7% | 97% | |
| 83 | 1.0% | 90% | |
| 84 | 2% | 89% | |
| 85 | 36% | 87% | Median |
| 86 | 28% | 51% | |
| 87 | 6% | 24% | |
| 88 | 10% | 17% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 90 | 6% | 7% | Majority |
| 91 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 1.5% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 78 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 80 | 2% | 97% | |
| 81 | 38% | 95% | |
| 82 | 4% | 57% | Median |
| 83 | 6% | 54% | |
| 84 | 26% | 47% | |
| 85 | 10% | 21% | |
| 86 | 0.6% | 12% | |
| 87 | 10% | 11% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 79 | 15% | 98% | |
| 80 | 3% | 83% | |
| 81 | 28% | 80% | |
| 82 | 2% | 51% | |
| 83 | 36% | 49% | Median |
| 84 | 4% | 13% | |
| 85 | 5% | 9% | |
| 86 | 2% | 4% | |
| 87 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 79 | 15% | 98% | |
| 80 | 3% | 83% | |
| 81 | 28% | 80% | |
| 82 | 2% | 51% | |
| 83 | 36% | 49% | Median |
| 84 | 4% | 13% | |
| 85 | 5% | 9% | |
| 86 | 2% | 4% | |
| 87 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 75 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 76 | 6% | 93% | |
| 77 | 6% | 87% | |
| 78 | 4% | 80% | |
| 79 | 45% | 76% | Median |
| 80 | 2% | 32% | |
| 81 | 22% | 30% | |
| 82 | 2% | 8% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 84 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 85 | 3% | 4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 75 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 76 | 6% | 93% | |
| 77 | 6% | 87% | |
| 78 | 4% | 80% | |
| 79 | 45% | 76% | Median |
| 80 | 2% | 32% | |
| 81 | 22% | 30% | |
| 82 | 2% | 8% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 84 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 85 | 3% | 4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 69 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 72 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 73 | 7% | 96% | |
| 74 | 34% | 89% | |
| 75 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 76 | 23% | 49% | |
| 77 | 5% | 26% | |
| 78 | 4% | 21% | |
| 79 | 15% | 16% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 1.5% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 67 | 2% | 97% | |
| 68 | 7% | 95% | |
| 69 | 58% | 88% | Median |
| 70 | 6% | 30% | |
| 71 | 13% | 25% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 12% | |
| 73 | 3% | 11% | |
| 74 | 7% | 8% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 56 | 1.5% | 99.1% | |
| 57 | 5% | 98% | |
| 58 | 36% | 92% | |
| 59 | 20% | 57% | Median |
| 60 | 10% | 37% | |
| 61 | 20% | 26% | |
| 62 | 3% | 6% | |
| 63 | 2% | 4% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 44 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 3% | 92% | |
| 46 | 32% | 89% | |
| 47 | 4% | 57% | Median |
| 48 | 15% | 53% | |
| 49 | 7% | 38% | |
| 50 | 22% | 31% | |
| 51 | 3% | 8% | |
| 52 | 5% | 6% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 54 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 2% | 98% | |
| 36 | 7% | 96% | |
| 37 | 41% | 89% | |
| 38 | 3% | 48% | Median |
| 39 | 8% | 45% | |
| 40 | 11% | 37% | Last Result |
| 41 | 4% | 27% | |
| 42 | 21% | 23% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 28 | 2% | 97% | |
| 29 | 40% | 95% | |
| 30 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 31 | 6% | 41% | |
| 32 | 5% | 35% | |
| 33 | 8% | 30% | |
| 34 | 20% | 22% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Epinion
- Commissioner(s): DR
- Fieldwork period: 19–25 January 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1762
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.32%