Opinion Poll by Norstat for Altinget, 24–29 January 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialdemokraterne | 26.3% | 30.9% | 29.4–32.5% | 29.0–32.9% | 28.6–33.3% | 27.9–34.1% |
| Venstre | 19.5% | 17.6% | 16.4–18.9% | 16.0–19.3% | 15.7–19.6% | 15.2–20.3% |
| Dansk Folkeparti | 21.1% | 16.7% | 15.5–18.0% | 15.2–18.4% | 14.9–18.7% | 14.4–19.3% |
| Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.9–9.8% | 7.7–10.1% | 7.5–10.3% | 7.1–10.8% |
| Socialistisk Folkeparti | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% |
| Liberal Alliance | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.1–5.6% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.8–6.0% | 3.5–6.4% |
| Radikale Venstre | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.0–5.4% | 3.8–5.6% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.4–6.2% |
| Det Konservative Folkeparti | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.5–4.9% | 3.4–5.1% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.6% |
| Alternativet | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.3% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.5–5.0% |
| Nye Borgerlige | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–2.9% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.5–3.5% |
| Kristendemokraterne | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.3% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialdemokraterne | 47 | 55 | 51–58 | 50–60 | 50–60 | 49–60 |
| Venstre | 34 | 32 | 29–34 | 29–35 | 28–35 | 27–36 |
| Dansk Folkeparti | 37 | 30 | 27–31 | 27–32 | 26–33 | 25–34 |
| Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne | 14 | 16 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 13–19 |
| Socialistisk Folkeparti | 7 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| Liberal Alliance | 13 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 6–12 |
| Radikale Venstre | 8 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| Det Konservative Folkeparti | 6 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 |
| Alternativet | 9 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| Nye Borgerlige | 0 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Kristendemokraterne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Socialdemokraterne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 9% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 2% | 90% | |
| 52 | 8% | 88% | |
| 53 | 13% | 80% | |
| 54 | 12% | 68% | |
| 55 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 56 | 7% | 47% | |
| 57 | 6% | 40% | |
| 58 | 25% | 34% | |
| 59 | 3% | 9% | |
| 60 | 5% | 5% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 29 | 9% | 95% | |
| 30 | 24% | 86% | |
| 31 | 12% | 63% | |
| 32 | 22% | 50% | Median |
| 33 | 14% | 28% | |
| 34 | 9% | 14% | Last Result |
| 35 | 4% | 5% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Dansk Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 27 | 19% | 96% | |
| 28 | 10% | 77% | |
| 29 | 11% | 67% | |
| 30 | 23% | 56% | Median |
| 31 | 25% | 32% | |
| 32 | 4% | 8% | |
| 33 | 2% | 4% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 6% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 15% | 93% | Last Result |
| 15 | 25% | 78% | |
| 16 | 29% | 53% | Median |
| 17 | 20% | 23% | |
| 18 | 2% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistisk Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 4% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 8 | 28% | 96% | |
| 9 | 33% | 68% | Median |
| 10 | 26% | 35% | |
| 11 | 8% | 8% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Liberal Alliance
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 18% | 99.0% | |
| 8 | 38% | 81% | Median |
| 9 | 33% | 43% | |
| 10 | 7% | 11% | |
| 11 | 2% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Radikale Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 27% | 98.7% | |
| 8 | 39% | 72% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 22% | 32% | |
| 10 | 9% | 10% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Det Konservative Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 11% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 7 | 43% | 88% | Median |
| 8 | 27% | 45% | |
| 9 | 13% | 17% | |
| 10 | 4% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Alternativet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 8% | 98% | |
| 6 | 38% | 90% | |
| 7 | 44% | 52% | Median |
| 8 | 6% | 8% | |
| 9 | 1.3% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Nye Borgerlige
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 88% | |
| 2 | 0% | 88% | |
| 3 | 0% | 88% | |
| 4 | 58% | 88% | Median |
| 5 | 25% | 30% | |
| 6 | 4% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Kristendemokraterne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet | 85 | 94 | 98% | 91–98 | 91–99 | 90–100 | 87–101 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre | 76 | 88 | 23% | 84–91 | 84–93 | 83–94 | 81–95 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet | 77 | 86 | 9% | 83–89 | 82–91 | 81–92 | 80–92 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti | 68 | 79 | 0% | 76–83 | 76–85 | 74–86 | 74–86 |
| Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne | 90 | 81 | 0% | 77–84 | 76–84 | 75–85 | 74–88 |
| Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige | 90 | 81 | 0% | 77–84 | 76–84 | 75–85 | 74–88 |
| Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne | 90 | 77 | 0% | 74–80 | 73–81 | 72–81 | 71–83 |
| Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti | 90 | 77 | 0% | 74–80 | 73–81 | 72–81 | 71–83 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre | 62 | 73 | 0% | 68–77 | 68–77 | 68–79 | 66–79 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre | 55 | 63 | 0% | 59–67 | 58–68 | 58–69 | 57–70 |
| Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti | 53 | 47 | 0% | 44–50 | 43–50 | 43–52 | 42–53 |
| Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti | 40 | 40 | 0% | 36–41 | 35–42 | 35–43 | 34–45 |
| Venstre | 34 | 32 | 0% | 29–34 | 29–35 | 28–35 | 27–36 |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 89 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 90 | 3% | 98% | Majority |
| 91 | 10% | 95% | |
| 92 | 7% | 86% | |
| 93 | 20% | 78% | |
| 94 | 9% | 58% | |
| 95 | 23% | 49% | Median |
| 96 | 5% | 27% | |
| 97 | 8% | 22% | |
| 98 | 6% | 13% | |
| 99 | 2% | 7% | |
| 100 | 2% | 4% | |
| 101 | 2% | 2% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 83 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 84 | 10% | 96% | |
| 85 | 6% | 86% | |
| 86 | 20% | 81% | |
| 87 | 8% | 61% | |
| 88 | 4% | 53% | Median |
| 89 | 26% | 49% | |
| 90 | 2% | 23% | Majority |
| 91 | 11% | 20% | |
| 92 | 3% | 10% | |
| 93 | 4% | 7% | |
| 94 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 95 | 2% | 2% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 81 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 82 | 2% | 96% | |
| 83 | 13% | 94% | |
| 84 | 4% | 81% | |
| 85 | 7% | 77% | |
| 86 | 23% | 69% | |
| 87 | 21% | 46% | Median |
| 88 | 7% | 25% | |
| 89 | 9% | 17% | |
| 90 | 2% | 9% | Majority |
| 91 | 2% | 6% | |
| 92 | 4% | 4% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 75 | 2% | 97% | |
| 76 | 13% | 95% | |
| 77 | 3% | 83% | |
| 78 | 5% | 80% | |
| 79 | 26% | 75% | |
| 80 | 4% | 49% | Median |
| 81 | 21% | 44% | |
| 82 | 13% | 23% | |
| 83 | 2% | 10% | |
| 84 | 2% | 8% | |
| 85 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 86 | 4% | 4% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 2% | 96% | |
| 77 | 6% | 93% | |
| 78 | 8% | 87% | |
| 79 | 5% | 78% | |
| 80 | 23% | 73% | |
| 81 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 82 | 20% | 42% | |
| 83 | 7% | 22% | |
| 84 | 10% | 14% | |
| 85 | 3% | 5% | |
| 86 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 2% | 96% | |
| 77 | 6% | 93% | |
| 78 | 8% | 87% | |
| 79 | 5% | 78% | |
| 80 | 23% | 73% | |
| 81 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 82 | 20% | 42% | |
| 83 | 7% | 22% | |
| 84 | 10% | 14% | |
| 85 | 3% | 5% | |
| 86 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 71 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 73 | 6% | 97% | |
| 74 | 11% | 91% | |
| 75 | 9% | 80% | |
| 76 | 19% | 70% | |
| 77 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 78 | 16% | 38% | |
| 79 | 5% | 22% | |
| 80 | 11% | 18% | |
| 81 | 5% | 7% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 71 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 73 | 6% | 97% | |
| 74 | 11% | 91% | |
| 75 | 9% | 80% | |
| 76 | 19% | 70% | |
| 77 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 78 | 16% | 38% | |
| 79 | 5% | 22% | |
| 80 | 11% | 18% | |
| 81 | 5% | 7% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 68 | 10% | 98% | |
| 69 | 10% | 87% | |
| 70 | 16% | 78% | |
| 71 | 5% | 62% | |
| 72 | 4% | 57% | Median |
| 73 | 9% | 54% | |
| 74 | 23% | 44% | |
| 75 | 4% | 22% | |
| 76 | 6% | 18% | |
| 77 | 8% | 12% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 3% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 7% | 99.3% | |
| 59 | 3% | 92% | |
| 60 | 13% | 89% | |
| 61 | 14% | 76% | |
| 62 | 5% | 61% | |
| 63 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 64 | 5% | 48% | |
| 65 | 6% | 44% | |
| 66 | 23% | 38% | |
| 67 | 9% | 15% | |
| 68 | 2% | 6% | |
| 69 | 3% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 44 | 10% | 94% | |
| 45 | 5% | 84% | |
| 46 | 10% | 79% | |
| 47 | 25% | 69% | Median |
| 48 | 3% | 45% | |
| 49 | 28% | 41% | |
| 50 | 9% | 13% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 52 | 2% | 3% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 36 | 13% | 94% | |
| 37 | 10% | 82% | |
| 38 | 6% | 72% | |
| 39 | 13% | 66% | Median |
| 40 | 33% | 53% | Last Result |
| 41 | 13% | 19% | |
| 42 | 2% | 6% | |
| 43 | 2% | 4% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 29 | 9% | 95% | |
| 30 | 24% | 86% | |
| 31 | 12% | 63% | |
| 32 | 22% | 50% | Median |
| 33 | 14% | 28% | |
| 34 | 9% | 14% | Last Result |
| 35 | 4% | 5% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): Altinget
- Fieldwork period: 24–29 January 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1501
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.39%