Opinion Poll by Kantar Gallup for Berlingske, 2–8 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 29.0% 27.5–30.5% 27.1–31.0% 26.7–31.3% 26.1–32.1%
Venstre 19.5% 19.4% 18.1–20.7% 17.8–21.1% 17.5–21.4% 16.9–22.1%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 15.5% 14.3–16.7% 14.0–17.1% 13.7–17.4% 13.2–18.0%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 9.1% 8.2–10.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.3–11.2%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 5.2% 4.5–6.0% 4.3–6.2% 4.2–6.4% 3.9–6.9%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 5.2% 4.5–6.0% 4.3–6.2% 4.2–6.4% 3.9–6.9%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 4.9% 4.2–5.7% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.6–6.5%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 4.8% 4.2–5.6% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.0% 3.6–6.4%
Alternativet 4.8% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.5–5.2% 3.4–5.4% 3.1–5.8%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 0.9% 0.7–1.3% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 52 49–55 48–55 47–55 47–57
Venstre 34 35 33–37 32–38 32–40 30–40
Dansk Folkeparti 37 28 26–30 25–30 25–31 23–32
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 15 14–18 14–18 14–19 13–20
Liberal Alliance 13 10 8–11 8–11 7–12 6–12
Radikale Venstre 8 10 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–12
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 9 7–11 7–11 7–11 6–12
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 8 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–12
Alternativet 9 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Nye Borgerlige 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 4% 99.6% Last Result
48 4% 95%  
49 6% 92%  
50 14% 86%  
51 10% 72%  
52 35% 62% Median
53 4% 27%  
54 10% 23%  
55 11% 13%  
56 1.0% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.7%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.7%  
31 1.2% 99.4%  
32 6% 98%  
33 17% 92%  
34 10% 75% Last Result
35 15% 65% Median
36 37% 50%  
37 8% 13%  
38 0.5% 5%  
39 1.4% 5%  
40 3% 3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.6% 99.9%  
24 1.3% 99.3%  
25 3% 98%  
26 6% 95%  
27 8% 89%  
28 46% 81% Median
29 21% 34%  
30 9% 13%  
31 4% 4%  
32 0.6% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0% Last Result

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.3% 99.9%  
14 39% 98.6% Last Result
15 20% 60% Median
16 12% 40%  
17 15% 28%  
18 10% 13%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.7% 100%  
7 4% 99.3%  
8 7% 96%  
9 20% 89%  
10 46% 69% Median
11 19% 23%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
14 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 14% 98% Last Result
9 29% 84%  
10 49% 55% Median
11 4% 6%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.0% 100%  
7 9% 99.0% Last Result
8 39% 90%  
9 20% 51% Median
10 9% 31%  
11 20% 22%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
7 16% 99.4%  
8 45% 83% Median
9 26% 39%  
10 10% 13%  
11 2% 3%  
12 1.2% 1.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100%  
6 13% 99.2%  
7 26% 86%  
8 24% 60% Median
9 34% 36% Last Result
10 1.4% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0.1% 7%  
4 6% 6%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 85 93 96% 91–96 90–98 89–98 87–99
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 76 85 7% 83–89 82–91 81–91 79–92
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 77 83 0.9% 81–88 81–88 80–88 78–90
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne 90 82 0% 79–84 77–85 77–86 76–88
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne 90 82 0% 79–83 77–84 77–86 75–86
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige 90 82 0% 79–84 77–85 77–86 76–88
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti 90 82 0% 79–83 77–84 77–86 75–86
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 68 76 0% 73–80 73–81 72–81 70–82
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 62 70 0% 67–74 66–74 66–74 64–76
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 62 0% 58–63 57–65 57–65 55–67
Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti 53 54 0% 50–55 50–57 50–58 47–58
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 44 0% 41–45 40–47 40–49 38–49
Venstre 34 35 0% 33–37 32–38 32–40 30–40

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0.6% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.3%  
89 3% 99.1%  
90 1.3% 96% Majority
91 6% 94%  
92 25% 89%  
93 33% 64%  
94 4% 31% Median
95 4% 26%  
96 14% 22%  
97 1.2% 8%  
98 6% 7%  
99 0.5% 1.0%  
100 0.3% 0.5%  
101 0.2% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100% Last Result
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.5% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.4%  
81 3% 99.2%  
82 2% 97%  
83 5% 94%  
84 31% 89%  
85 17% 58%  
86 13% 41% Median
87 6% 28%  
88 10% 22%  
89 5% 12%  
90 2% 7% Majority
91 5% 5%  
92 0.3% 0.6%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0.6% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.3%  
80 3% 99.0%  
81 7% 96%  
82 8% 89%  
83 48% 81%  
84 5% 33% Median
85 4% 29%  
86 3% 24%  
87 5% 21%  
88 15% 16%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.6% 0.9% Majority
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.5% 99.5%  
77 6% 99.0%  
78 1.2% 93%  
79 14% 92%  
80 4% 78%  
81 4% 74% Median
82 33% 69%  
83 25% 36%  
84 6% 11%  
85 1.3% 6%  
86 3% 4%  
87 0.3% 0.9%  
88 0.6% 0.7%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.6% 99.6%  
76 1.0% 99.0%  
77 6% 98%  
78 1.4% 92%  
79 14% 90%  
80 6% 76%  
81 4% 70% Median
82 33% 66%  
83 24% 32%  
84 4% 8%  
85 0.9% 4%  
86 3% 3%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.5% 99.5%  
77 6% 99.0%  
78 1.3% 93%  
79 14% 92%  
80 4% 78%  
81 4% 74% Median
82 33% 69%  
83 25% 36%  
84 6% 11%  
85 1.2% 5%  
86 3% 4%  
87 0.3% 0.9%  
88 0.6% 0.7%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.6% 99.6%  
76 1.1% 99.0%  
77 6% 98%  
78 1.4% 91%  
79 14% 90%  
80 6% 76%  
81 5% 70% Median
82 33% 65%  
83 24% 32%  
84 4% 8%  
85 0.8% 4%  
86 3% 3%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0.8% 100%  
71 0.3% 99.2%  
72 3% 98.9%  
73 6% 96%  
74 30% 90%  
75 5% 60%  
76 19% 55% Median
77 11% 36%  
78 7% 26%  
79 3% 19%  
80 8% 17%  
81 8% 9%  
82 0.6% 1.1%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.6% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.3%  
66 5% 98.7%  
67 6% 93%  
68 7% 87%  
69 4% 81%  
70 49% 76%  
71 11% 27% Median
72 2% 17%  
73 1.5% 15%  
74 12% 14%  
75 0.9% 1.5%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.3% 0.4%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 1.1% 99.9% Last Result
56 0.9% 98.9%  
57 5% 98%  
58 3% 93%  
59 16% 90%  
60 4% 74%  
61 14% 69%  
62 34% 55% Median
63 13% 22%  
64 1.4% 8%  
65 5% 7%  
66 0.6% 2%  
67 0.8% 0.9%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.4% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.5%  
48 0.4% 99.3%  
49 0.7% 99.0%  
50 19% 98%  
51 4% 79%  
52 6% 75%  
53 12% 69% Last Result, Median
54 29% 57%  
55 18% 28%  
56 3% 10%  
57 3% 6%  
58 3% 3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.3% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.7%  
39 1.1% 99.5%  
40 5% 98% Last Result
41 12% 93%  
42 6% 81%  
43 14% 75% Median
44 46% 60%  
45 5% 14%  
46 3% 10%  
47 2% 6%  
48 2% 4%  
49 3% 3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.7%  
31 1.2% 99.4%  
32 6% 98%  
33 17% 92%  
34 10% 75% Last Result
35 15% 65% Median
36 37% 50%  
37 8% 13%  
38 0.5% 5%  
39 1.4% 5%  
40 3% 3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations