Opinion Poll by Epinion for DR, 14–20 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialdemokraterne | 26.3% | 26.5% | 25.2–27.9% | 24.8–28.3% | 24.5–28.7% | 23.8–29.4% |
| Venstre | 19.5% | 19.9% | 18.7–21.2% | 18.4–21.6% | 18.1–21.9% | 17.5–22.5% |
| Dansk Folkeparti | 21.1% | 18.3% | 17.1–19.6% | 16.8–19.9% | 16.5–20.2% | 16.0–20.9% |
| Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne | 7.8% | 10.8% | 9.9–11.9% | 9.6–12.1% | 9.4–12.4% | 9.0–12.9% |
| Radikale Venstre | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.2–5.6% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.9–6.0% | 3.6–6.3% |
| Socialistisk Folkeparti | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.0–5.3% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.7–5.7% | 3.4–6.1% |
| Det Konservative Folkeparti | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.5–4.8% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.5% |
| Liberal Alliance | 7.5% | 3.9% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.1–5.0% | 2.9–5.3% |
| Alternativet | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.1–5.0% | 2.9–5.3% |
| Nye Borgerlige | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.1% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.7–3.7% |
| Kristendemokraterne | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialdemokraterne | 47 | 49 | 45–49 | 45–50 | 45–52 | 43–52 |
| Venstre | 34 | 36 | 34–36 | 33–36 | 30–36 | 30–38 |
| Dansk Folkeparti | 37 | 35 | 30–37 | 28–37 | 28–37 | 27–37 |
| Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne | 14 | 17 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 16–22 |
| Radikale Venstre | 8 | 9 | 8–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| Socialistisk Folkeparti | 7 | 9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| Det Konservative Folkeparti | 6 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| Liberal Alliance | 13 | 8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Alternativet | 9 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Nye Borgerlige | 0 | 0 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Kristendemokraterne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Socialdemokraterne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 45 | 20% | 98.9% | |
| 46 | 0.9% | 79% | |
| 47 | 15% | 78% | Last Result |
| 48 | 6% | 63% | |
| 49 | 49% | 57% | Median |
| 50 | 3% | 8% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 52 | 4% | 4% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 3% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 97% | |
| 32 | 2% | 97% | |
| 33 | 5% | 95% | |
| 34 | 5% | 90% | Last Result |
| 35 | 32% | 86% | |
| 36 | 53% | 54% | Median |
| 37 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Dansk Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 8% | 99.5% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 30 | 4% | 91% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 88% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 33 | 9% | 87% | |
| 34 | 3% | 79% | |
| 35 | 45% | 75% | Median |
| 36 | 12% | 30% | |
| 37 | 19% | 19% | Last Result |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 6% | 100% | |
| 17 | 45% | 94% | Median |
| 18 | 22% | 49% | |
| 19 | 11% | 27% | |
| 20 | 10% | 16% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 22 | 5% | 5% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Radikale Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 7% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 8 | 17% | 92% | Last Result |
| 9 | 63% | 75% | Median |
| 10 | 11% | 12% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistisk Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 26% | 100% | |
| 7 | 8% | 74% | Last Result |
| 8 | 15% | 66% | |
| 9 | 46% | 51% | Median |
| 10 | 5% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Det Konservative Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 39% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 7 | 36% | 60% | Median |
| 8 | 22% | 24% | |
| 9 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Liberal Alliance
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 38% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 5% | 62% | |
| 8 | 56% | 56% | Median |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Alternativet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 47% | 97% | |
| 7 | 38% | 50% | Median |
| 8 | 12% | 12% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Nye Borgerlige
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 58% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 42% | |
| 2 | 0% | 42% | |
| 3 | 2% | 42% | |
| 4 | 6% | 41% | |
| 5 | 22% | 35% | |
| 6 | 13% | 13% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Kristendemokraterne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet | 85 | 90 | 67% | 85–91 | 85–95 | 85–95 | 85–95 |
| Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne | 90 | 85 | 19% | 84–90 | 80–90 | 80–90 | 80–90 |
| Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige | 90 | 85 | 19% | 84–90 | 80–90 | 80–90 | 80–90 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti | 76 | 84 | 0% | 78–84 | 78–87 | 78–87 | 78–87 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet | 77 | 81 | 0% | 76–85 | 76–85 | 76–87 | 76–87 |
| Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne | 90 | 85 | 0% | 80–85 | 79–85 | 79–85 | 77–86 |
| Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance | 90 | 85 | 0% | 80–85 | 79–85 | 79–85 | 77–86 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti | 68 | 75 | 0% | 69–77 | 69–77 | 69–79 | 69–79 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti | 62 | 65 | 0% | 60–67 | 60–67 | 60–70 | 60–70 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre | 55 | 57 | 0% | 54–58 | 53–59 | 53–60 | 52–60 |
| Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance | 53 | 50 | 0% | 48–51 | 47–51 | 44–51 | 44–53 |
| Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti | 40 | 42 | 0% | 42–43 | 41–43 | 37–43 | 37–46 |
| Venstre | 34 | 36 | 0% | 34–36 | 33–36 | 30–36 | 30–38 |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 85 | 18% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 86 | 6% | 81% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 75% | |
| 88 | 3% | 75% | |
| 89 | 4% | 72% | |
| 90 | 54% | 67% | Majority |
| 91 | 5% | 13% | Median |
| 92 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 93 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 95 | 7% | 7% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 7% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 84 | 5% | 91% | |
| 85 | 54% | 87% | |
| 86 | 4% | 33% | Median |
| 87 | 3% | 28% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 25% | |
| 89 | 6% | 25% | |
| 90 | 18% | 19% | Last Result, Majority |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 7% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 84 | 5% | 91% | |
| 85 | 54% | 87% | |
| 86 | 4% | 33% | Median |
| 87 | 3% | 28% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 25% | |
| 89 | 6% | 25% | |
| 90 | 18% | 19% | Last Result, Majority |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 77 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 78 | 18% | 99.7% | |
| 79 | 2% | 81% | |
| 80 | 4% | 79% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 75% | |
| 82 | 4% | 74% | |
| 83 | 19% | 70% | |
| 84 | 43% | 51% | Median |
| 85 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 86 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 87 | 7% | 7% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 76 | 18% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 2% | 81% | Last Result |
| 78 | 4% | 79% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 75% | |
| 80 | 11% | 75% | |
| 81 | 41% | 64% | |
| 82 | 10% | 23% | Median |
| 83 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 85 | 7% | 12% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 87 | 4% | 4% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 79 | 8% | 98% | |
| 80 | 7% | 90% | |
| 81 | 3% | 83% | |
| 82 | 2% | 80% | |
| 83 | 7% | 79% | |
| 84 | 5% | 71% | |
| 85 | 65% | 67% | |
| 86 | 2% | 2% | Median |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 79 | 8% | 98% | |
| 80 | 7% | 90% | |
| 81 | 3% | 83% | |
| 82 | 2% | 80% | |
| 83 | 7% | 79% | |
| 84 | 5% | 71% | |
| 85 | 65% | 67% | |
| 86 | 2% | 2% | Median |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 69 | 18% | 99.7% | |
| 70 | 2% | 81% | |
| 71 | 0% | 79% | |
| 72 | 4% | 79% | |
| 73 | 8% | 75% | |
| 74 | 2% | 66% | |
| 75 | 49% | 65% | Median |
| 76 | 4% | 16% | |
| 77 | 7% | 12% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 79 | 5% | 5% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 19% | 99.6% | |
| 61 | 5% | 81% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 76% | Last Result |
| 63 | 9% | 76% | |
| 64 | 16% | 68% | |
| 65 | 4% | 51% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 47% | |
| 67 | 42% | 46% | Median |
| 68 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 69 | 0% | 4% | |
| 70 | 4% | 4% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 53 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 54 | 21% | 95% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 74% | Last Result |
| 56 | 12% | 74% | |
| 57 | 15% | 62% | |
| 58 | 40% | 47% | Median |
| 59 | 3% | 7% | |
| 60 | 4% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 44 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 47 | 6% | 96% | |
| 48 | 24% | 91% | |
| 49 | 10% | 67% | |
| 50 | 41% | 57% | |
| 51 | 15% | 16% | Median |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 3% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 39 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 95% | Last Result |
| 41 | 5% | 95% | |
| 42 | 63% | 91% | |
| 43 | 27% | 28% | Median |
| 44 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 3% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 97% | |
| 32 | 2% | 97% | |
| 33 | 5% | 95% | |
| 34 | 5% | 90% | Last Result |
| 35 | 32% | 86% | |
| 36 | 53% | 54% | Median |
| 37 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Epinion
- Commissioner(s): DR
- Fieldwork period: 14–20 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1682
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.46%